HawkeyeReport.com - BCS hopes still alive for Iowa

November 23, 2009

Tom Kakert
Publisher

The Hawkeyes wrapped up a 10-2 regular season on Saturday with a hard fought 12-0 win over Minnesota. Now for the Hawkeye players, coaches, and athletic department, the waiting game begins. One thing the Hawkeyes know is that they will be bound for a January Bowl game. The question is which one? Will Hawkeye fans be headed to Miami? Phoenix? Or perhaps Orlando?

One thing that is certain this week and that is Kirk Ferentz isn't going to worry about it. After a 12 week grinder of a season with more up's and down's than a rollercoaster, the Hawkeye head coach is planning to get away from the office and enjoy a well deserved break from film work and game preparation.

As far as making their case on the field, the Iowa Football team has done all they can do. They secured a second place finish in the Big Ten conference and a 6-2 record in the league. The resume is strong with road wins at Iowa State, Wisconsin, Penn State, and Michigan State. Plus they took league champion Ohio State to overtime in their building. The human polls that matter have Iowa checking in at #13. The computers still have Iowa rated fairly highly at #10. All that works out to a BSC ranking of #11 this week and that is more likely to go up rather than down at this point.

Where does that leave Iowa fans who want to start making travel plans for a bowl game?

Unfortunately still on hold and that will be the case until the BCS bowl bids are announced on December 6th.

One thing looks very apparent, the Big Ten is going to get a second BCS bid this year. Ohio State is already locked into the Rose Bowl, where they will face the Pac 10 champion, either Oregon or Oregon State.

After that, all signs point to Iowa or Penn State getting that coveted second conference bid. BCS rules prevent a conference from having three teams in the BCS so it will be Iowa or Penn State and the one left out will be packing their bags for the Capital One Bowl in Orlando on January 1st.

Now, you may be saying to yourself, didn't I watch Iowa go into Penn State this season and beat them on their own field? The answer to that one is yes you did. The final was 21-10 on September 26th. Point in favor of the Hawkeyes.

One thing you learn over the years with bowl games is that a head to head win over a team with an identical record doesn't mean a whole lot with it comes to bowl committees and who they select. First and foremost the bowl folk's love teams that sellout their stadium and bring fans to their community to spent money.

Iowa fans have done that over the years at every stop they have made. If you doubt that, ask the Orange Bowl rep that was in Iowa City this week and watch his eyes light up when he talks about the number of Iowans that invaded south Florida in late 2002 and the first days of 2003. As the folks from the Outback or Capital One or Alamo Bowl who have hosted the Hawkeyes in the past decade. Hawk fans do their part. They show up in droves and the bowls love you.

But, they also love Penn State, who has a fan base on par with Iowa's when it comes to making bowl trips. In this area it is a straight up draw.

Where they turn next?

Iowa fans won't like this, but Penn State's legendary head coach is a drawing card. For all of Kirk Ferentz success, he isn't Joe Paterno when it comes to being a national figure and I bet Ferentz would be the first to agree with that notion. Add in that Penn State is an east coast team with more television sets tuning in that Iowa can offer and you have an interesting decision that either the Fiesta Bowl or perhaps the Orange Bowl will have to make. Bottom line, either Iowa or Ohio State will be headed to a BCS bowl and the school left out will be making plans for the Capital One Bowl in Orlando.

The way things stand with the BCS heading in to the final two weeks of the season, it seems fairly certain that the winner of the SEC Title game between Alabama and Florida will be in the national title game. It also seems highly likely that Texas will beat Texas A&M and Nebraska to win the Big 12 title and move on to the national title game that will be played at the Rose Bowl this year.

What that means for the BCS is that the highest ranked team, which will certainly be the winner of Alabama/Florida, will allow the Sugar Bowl to have the first pick of eligible BCS teams. To be eligible, a team has to be ranked in the top 14 of the final regular season BCS poll. The Sugar Bowl will pick the loser of the SEC title game. I don't think there is any debate about that one. The only debate right now is whether it will be the Tide or the Gators.

Then the Fiesta will have the second pick because the Big 12 is tied to the Fiesta Bowl and they will need a replacement pick for Texas. This is where it will get interesting. That pick will likely be one of three schools, as it stands today: Iowa, Penn State, or Oklahoma State. The Cowboys currently sit at #12 in the BCS poll, sandwiched between Iowa and Penn State. They also have a date this weekend in Norman to face the Oklahoma Sooners, coached by former Hawkeye Bob Stoops. If they win, they make a pretty good case to be selected into a BCS bowl. If they lose, then they have no shot at being picked.

As I mentioned last week, there is a doomsday scenario out there that if Texas loses in the Big 12 title game or somehow loses to the Aggies this week, then all bets are off. Texas would be out of the title game with a loss and then the BCS apple cart is up for grabs. It's not likely and I'm not going to spend time on it unless it actually happens.

My sense is that the Fiesta will pick either Iowa, Oklahoma State, or Penn State with their first pick, assuming all three are available. If the Cowboys lose this week, then it's either Iowa or Penn State. The Fiesta folks know one thing, the Orange Bowl has the next BCS pick and if they don't take Iowa or Penn State then one of those two schools will be off the board when the Miami based bowl has their selection.

From the Iowa perspective, that is what it all boils down to. Sure Pittsburgh or Cincinnati might still be in the top 14 at the end of the season, but both schools are city schools and they just don't being the fan base to the table that Iowa or Penn State does.

For those who are wondering about the selection process, after the two national title replacements picks are made, then the order goes Orange, Fiesta, and then Sugar.

Here is how I see the BSC breaking down today, subject to change next week:

National title game: Alabama vs. Texas
Rose Bowl: Ohio State (Big Ten Champ) vs. Oregon (Pac 10 Champ)
Sugar: Florida (at-large) vs. Cincinnati (Big East Champ)
Fiesta: Iowa (at-large) vs. Boise State (at-large)
Orange: Georgia Tech (ACC Champ) vs. TCU (at-large)

Now there is one other option that could be on the table. There is a growing feeling out there that if Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma this weekend that Boise State could be on the outside looking in as far as an at-large bid. I don't see the Orange Bowl picking Oklahoma State and the Fiesta could very well pick them with their second choice. If that is the case, then it would be Iowa/Penn State vs. Oklahoma State on January 4th in Glendale, Arizona.

One thing for Iowa fans need to understand is my projection isn't with a 100% certain level of comfort. The Paterno factor and the TV factor are real and they will be a part of the equation. I could just as easily see Penn State being picked by the Fiesta Bowl when it all said and done, head to head win or not. Iowa has jumped teams that have defeated them head to head for bowl games in the past who had a better or equal record, so it does happen and could happen this year.

It's going to be a fun two weeks watching this all play out, so stay tuned because more than likely next week when we put this bowl story together, it will look completely different.

If you are interested traveling to see the Hawkeyes play in whatever bowl game they play in this year, then Short's Travel has you covered. Just visit their web site at www.shortssports.com and fill out the brief questionnaire and once the Hawkeye bowl plans are finalized, you will get an e-mail from their with all of the details. Shorts plans on having charter flights out of several locations in the state of Iowa. If you are a Hawkeye fan outside of the state of Iowa, then Shorts has you covered as well with land only packages that will allow you to stay with your fellow Iowa fans. All packages will include transportation to and from the game, the Hawkeye Huddle, plus your game ticket.

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