No. 10 Iowa 83, No. 2 Ohio State 72: Big Game, Big Victory

Usually playing the undefeated #2-ranked team in the country away in late January comes with a single benefit: no expectations. Most P5 teams that are still undefeated at this point in a season have a significant talent advantage that helps them stay unbeaten.

Fortunately for Iowa, that isn’t true in this case. Ohio State is a very talented team, not quite at the level of South Carolina or UConn teams of past years. And the Buckeyes haven’t been very healthy this year, either. They’ve been without star guard Jacy Sheldon since November and lost starter Madison Greene for the season a few weeks ago.

How did Ohio State stay undefeated, then? Partly due to its schedule. The Buckeyes have played plenty of good teams, but they hadn’t played a Top 10 team yet, and their biggest games had either been at home or on a neutral court.

Another part—to some extent—is luck. Ohio State had played in eight games decided by 12 points or fewer, and won all of them. Part of winning close games is talent and execution, but luck certainly plays a role. If one or two balls bounce differently, the outcome of a game would shift.

Because of all that, HerHoopStats.com gave Iowa a 43% chance to beat the Buckeyes when the game began. That’s much higher than I would’ve expected, frankly, but showed the game was much closer to 50/50 than conventional wisdom might’ve held.

The game started quickly offensively for both teams. Iowa was able to get the ball inside throughout the quarter, and also made a few threes. Ohio State spaced the floor well and attacked Iowa off the dribble. Iowa held a narrow lead for most of the quarter, before an Ohio State three at the buzzer gave the Buckeyes a 24-23 lead after one.

Iowa’s offense stayed hot early in the second quarter, and its defense started to cause issues. The Hawks switched to a triangle and two with the two player-on-player defenders guarding Ohio State’s two best offensive threats. Ohio State struggled to score with its two best scorers locked down, and Iowa built a 32-26 lead before a Buckeye timeout. The two teams went back and forth from there, but Caitlin Clark found Monika Czinano on a great pass just before the final buzzer and Czinano’s layup gave Iowa a 43-34 lead at halftime. Clark was spectacular in the first half with 12 points, 9 assists, and 5 rebounds. A big part of Clark’s success was Czinano, who had 14 points in 12 first half minutes.

Iowa kept rolling early in the third quarter. Offensively, Clark was still running the show for Iowa. Defensively, Iowa’s triangle-and-two was still causing issues. Ohio State’s wings were getting to the basket some, but Iowa was largely neutralizing Ohio State’s leading scorers. Ohio State called another timeout with Iowa leading 56-44.

Out of the timeout, Ohio State looked like a changed team. The Buckeyes locked down defensively, keeping the ball out of the paint, contesting everything, and forcing more turnovers. It didn’t help that Iowa went ice cold offensively. The Hawks went more than five minutes without scoring, and Ohio State went on a 10-0 run in that time. Iowa still held a 56-54 lead at the end of the third, but momentum was squarely against them.

Molly Davis hit a three on Iowa’s first possession of the fourth quarter, and it seemed like a weight was lifted off the Hawkeye offense. The Hawks scored a few baskets quickly, and Ohio State called timeout when Iowa pushed the lead to 64-57.

Out of the timeout, Iowa put Monika Czinano back in with 4 fouls, and the Law Firm of Clark and Czinano got to work closing out the game. Clark found Czinano on three straight possessions and Czinano scored each of them. Kate Martin added a three, and suddenly Iowa had its largest lead of the game at 75-62 with a few minutes left.

Ohio State fought back and narrowed the lead back down to 8 points, but Ohio State then fouled Clark and Clark made two free throws to calm things down again. Iowa then got a couple stops, and the game was essentially over. Ohio State got as close as 8 again, but no closer. Iowa secured one of the biggest wins in college basketball this year 83-72 over #2 Ohio State.

Clark led Iowa with 28 points, 15 assists, and 10 rebounds. For most players, a stat line like that is impossible. For the vast majority of others, it would easily be a career game they can never hope to replicate. For Clark, it’s just what she does on the road at the #2 team in the country. Aliyah Boston is a great player. Angel Reese is having a phenomenal season. With respect to both, this year’s Player of the Year race shouldn’t be close. Clark has consistently delivered against a very tough schedule and this was her crown jewel.

Czinano had another huge game with 22 points on 11/13 shooting. The only thing you can fault her for tonight is getting in foul trouble. When she was in the game, she was dominating Ohio State’s defense.

Kate Martin had the quietest double-double I can remember, scoring 13 and grabbing 11 rebounds. I literally didn’t know she had it until I looked at the box score. That said, she hit some huge buckets in key moments, and was great on the glass all night.

Hannah Stuelke missed a double-double, but did have 8 points and 13 rebounds absorbing many of the minutes Iowa’s rotation lost with McKenna Warnock out injured. She was phenomenal in transition and will be a force when she develops her low-post moves.

Molly Davis only scored three points, but her three to start the fourth quarter was arguably the biggest shot of the game to get Iowa going again. Sydney Affolter played some big minutes off the bench and made a couple baskets. And Gabbie Marshall’s stat line wasn’t great, but her defense was the big reason Mikesell was quiet all game. A box score for the game is here.

It’s hard to overstate how much Iowa’s switch to the triangle-and-two defense shifted this game. Before the switch, Ohio State was scoring at will. After, the Buckeyes struggled to score for more than a quarter and a half.

The most obvious benefit for Iowa was face-guarding Ohio State’s Taylor Mikesell. Mikesell is one of the best shooters in the country, but only scored 12 points on 5/16 shooting. She was just 2/10 from three.

The second benefit came in shutting down Ohio State 5, Rebeka Mikulasikova. Mikulasikova killed Iowa last year, scoring 17 points on 5/6 shooting from three. Thanks to the triangle-and-two tonight, she only scored eight points and only attempted four shots. There was a large stretch of the second half where Ohio State took her out of the game due to ineffectiveness.

Iowa doesn’t win many games with its defense, but it’s fair to say defense made the difference in this one.

I’ll try to have more on this in a mid-week breakdown, but this win was absolutely massive for Iowa’s conference championship hopes. Things looked rough for Iowa after the Illinois loss because the Hawks still had road trips to Michigan, Ohio State, Maryland, and Indiana remaining on the schedule. So far, Iowa is 2-0 in those games.

The Hawks now sit tied in the conference standings with Ohio State and Indiana at 8-1. There’s a lot of season left to play, but had Iowa lost this game, it might’ve been effectively out of the conference race. Now it’s squarely in the conversation.

The win was also huge for Iowa’s NCAA Tournament resume. Ohio State likely would’ve been the 2nd or 3rd overall seed in the NCAA Tournament if it started today. ESPN projected Iowa as a 3 seed (somewhere between 9th and 12th overall) in its latest Bracketology update. A win at the #2 team in the country should substantially improve Iowa’s standing for the tournament.

Ohio State being #2 without Jacy Sheldon also shows how weak the top of women’s basketball is this year. South Carolina is a dominant #1 again, but after the Gamecocks, there are a bunch of good-but-flawed teams. There’s no reason Iowa can’t earn a 2 (or even a 1!?!) seed in this year’s tournament if it keeps bringing its A-game every time out.

Iowa returns to action on Saturday January 28th at 12 PM CT at home against Nebraska. The game will be televised on Fox Sports 1. The Cornhuskers are 12-8 overall this season and 4-5 in Big Ten play.