Preview: Iowa WBB at No. 2 Ohio State

WHO: #2 Ohio State Buckeyes (19-0 overall, 8-0 Big Ten)

WHEN: Monday, January 23rd at 6 pm CT

WHERE: The Schottenstein Center (Columbus, Ohio)

TV: ESPN2

RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network | Sirus/XM 109 or 196

This is probably the biggest game of Iowa’s season so far. Yes, Iowa’s game against UConn early in the season was more marquee. Iowa’s game against Iowa State probably involved more passion from the fans and players. But in terms of impact on Iowa’s season, this one takes the cake.

Ohio State is undefeated and ranked #2 in the country. There’s talk of them being a Final Four favorite.

In the conference race, Ohio State sits a game ahead of Iowa and #6 Indiana, and two games ahead of #11 Maryland and #14 Michigan. This is Iowa’s only matchup with Ohio State in the regular season. If Iowa wins this game, it's squarely back in the Big Ten Title race. An Ohio State win, and the Buckeyes and Hoosiers are the heavy favorites.

In terms of NCAA Tournament seeding, a win at Ohio State would be a tremendous boon for Iowa. ESPN currently projects Iowa as a 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament, but not too long ago, it had Iowa as a 5 seed. Teams hovering between a 2 seed and 5 seed are all fairly close right now; Iowa needs a big win to boost it above that crowd.

Thus far, Ohio State is 7-0 in Quad 1 games and 4-0 in Quad 2 games in NET rankings. NET is the ranking system the NCAA Tournament committee now uses, replacing the oft-criticized RPI. As a refresher, a team gets a Quad 1 win if it beats teams ranked 1-30 at home, teams ranked 1-50 on a neutral court, and teams ranked 1-75 away.

While that system is certainly preferable to the RPI, it isn’t without its flaws. For example, Illinois is currently ranked #29 in the NET. With a loss or some randomness, it will fall out of the top 30. Penn State is currently ranked #74 in the NET.

That means when Iowa travels to Penn State on February 5th, it might be playing a Quad 1 game, but had Iowa played Illinois at home this year, it’s possible that game would’ve been Quad 2. I’d wager every Iowa player thinks traveling to Penn State is easier than playing Illinois at home.

My point is that not all Quad 1 games are alike. Thus far, Ohio State has played and beaten three ranked teams: #14 Michigan, #21 Illinois, and #23 Oregon. It has also beaten several teams receiving votes in the AP Poll. The one thing the Buckeyes haven’t faced yet? A Top 10 team. That changes this week, as they play #10 Iowa on Monday and at #6 Indiana on Thursday. We should know a lot more about the Buckeyes in a few days.

Ohio State’s calling card is its offense. Almost every Buckeye can shoot from three, and most shoot the three very well. That shooting prowess helps Ohio State space the floor well and opens up driving lanes. Those drives are arguably what kills teams. Ohio State shoots 35.2% from three (44th in the country) but shoots 55.5% from two (7th in the country). All told, the Buckeyes average 86.3 points per game (5th in the country) and score the 10th-most points per 100 possessions.

The big change for Ohio State this year is that its defense has gotten better. It surrenders 80.3 points per 100 possessions, which is 21st in the nation. Last year, Ohio State was 102nd in the same category.

Ohio State’s biggest defensive asset is steals. The Buckeyes like to use a full court trapping press, and it works very well at slowing teams down or turning them over. Ohio State averages 13.4 steals per game, which is 4th in the country.

Ohio State’s biggest weakness as a team is rebounding. The Buckeyes sit just 211th in offensive rebounding rate and are only 143rd in defensive rebounding rate. Iowa has to take advantage of that by keeping Ohio State off the offensive glass and by grabbing a few offensive rebounds of its own.

Last year Ohio State’s Jacy Sheldon averaged 19.7 ppg, 4.2 apg, 3.7 rpg, and 1.9 spg. She was arguably the best player in the conference not named Caitlin Clark. What’s so remarkable about Ohio State’s start to the season is that Sheldon hasn’t played since November. Reports have consistently said that Sheldon would be back this season, but haven’t really given much of a timeline.

I haven’t heard anything about Sheldon being back for this game. That said, women’s basketball reporting in general isn’t as in-depth as men’s basketball, and if ever there were a week to bring Sheldon back, it would be this one with the Iowa game and Ohio State traveling to Indiana on Thursday. I still don’t think Sheldon will play, but wouldn’t be shocked if she gave it a go.

Sheldon isn’t Ohio State’s only injured player, either. A few weeks ago, it lost starter Madison Greene for the season. Before her injury, Greene was averaging 10.9 ppg, 5.0 apg, and 3.0 spg.

Of Ohio State’s players still healthy, Taylor Mikesell is the clear offensive leader. She averages 18.6 ppg and shoots 51.2% from 2 and 40.1% from three. Mikesell is a shooter first, averaging 8 three-point attempts per game, but she can also take defenders off the dribble. Iowa will have to guard her closely, but also be ready to help on drives.

Ohio State’s biggest breakout player is arguably Rebeka Mikulasikova, the team’s starting 5. Last year she was probably the team’s weakest starter, and many thought the post was a huge weakness for Ohio State. Now Mikulasikova is an offensive weapon. She averages 14.6 ppg, while shooting 59.3% from 2 and 37.9% from three.

I’ll be interested to see how Iowa approaches guarding Mikulasikova this year. Last year, Iowa tried to leave Monika Czinano on her, but Mikulasikova shot 5-6 from three and scored 17 points. If Iowa tries to use its player-to-player defense, I’m not sure that Czinano can guard Mikulasikova, but I’m not sure that she can stick with any of Ohio State’s other starters either. Iowa might choose to go zone instead, but that then frees up Ohio State’s shooters.

Finally, Taylor Thierry is an interesting statistical player. She averages 12.2 ppg, but shoots 72.0% from 2 and just 25.0% from three. She also grabs 6.5 rpg and 2.2 spg. Iowa will have to do everything in its power to keep Thierry away from the basket, because she’s deadly when she shoots from 2.

McKenna Warnock was injured in the third quarter of Iowa’s overtime win over Michigan State and didn’t return to that game. In the buildup to Ohio State game, Coach Bluder has said that Warnock is day to day with a rib injury, but that she is doubtful for the Ohio State game.

Coach Bluder mentioned Molly Davis, Sydney Affolter, and Hannah Stuelke as potential replacement options in the starting lineup. Stuelke got the bulk of Warnock’s minutes in the second half of the Michigan State game, but Coach Bluder seemed wary of thrusting Stuelke into the starting lineup of such a big game.

Regardless of who starts, I think Stuelke will be getting big minutes in this one. Her rebounding could give Iowa a big advantage against the Buckeyes given that they aren’t a very good rebounding team.

Beat the press. I’d like to say something about defense, but frankly I don’t think Iowa has much of a chance of slowing Ohio State down. The Hawks’ best hope is to win a shootout. If Ohio State can generate steals out of its press, Iowa isn’t going to win this game. Its defense won’t be able to get enough stops.

Instead, Iowa has to be both patient and opportunistic. The Hawks have to be patient enough not to throw bad passes or make bad decisions when two Buckeyes try to trap the ball. They have to be opportunistic enough to press a numbers advantage when they get by the first or second trap. Iowa’s offense is usually at its best in transition. Playing a press team gives Iowa an opportunity to go fast if it makes good passes and has a good game plan.