Big Ten WBB Breakdown: The Title Race

Before this year’s basketball season began, I thought there were six teams that could compete for the Big Ten title this year. Iowa, Indiana, and Ohio State were the favorites due to returning significant contributors from last year and/or adding significant pieces from the transfer portal.

Nebraska also returned most of its best players, but would need to take another step forward. Michigan returned most of last year’s Elite 8 team, but was also losing the best player in program history in Naz Hillmon. And Maryland had lost more than any team in the transfer portal, but replaced those losses with intriguing players. The question for the Terps was whether all those transfers could fit well on the same team.

Those preseason expectations have largely held true. Nebraska probably isn’t a title contender at this point, but no one would be shocked if any of the other five teams ended up winning at least a share of the conference title.

We’ve also had one shock entrant into Big Ten title discussions: Illinois. The Illini were 7-20 overall and 1-13 in conference last year. Despite that, new coach Shauna Green has the Illini at 13-2 overall and 3-1 in conference. Green should certainly be in the discussion for Coach of the Year nationally.

Below is a breakdown of each of the Big 7 teams in the Big Ten and their remaining games against other Big 7 teams. I don’t have analysis below for Purdue, Penn State, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Rutgers, or Wisconsin. Each of those teams could pull a big upset (Michigan State did so over Indiana a few days ago) but each is one or two steps below the Big 7 as of now.

Games remaining against the Big 7 (8): vs. Illinois; (1/8) at Nebraska (1/14); vs. Iowa (1/23); at Indiana (1/26); at Maryland (2/5); vs. Indiana (2/13); at Michigan (2/20); vs. Maryland (2/24)

Just looking at the numbers, Ohio State looks like the favorite to win the conference and one of the best teams in the country. But the Buckeyes have been hit hard by injury so far this season. Star guard Jacy Sheldon hasn’t played in over a month and it’s unclear when she will be back. Last week, OSU lost starter Madison Greene for the rest of the season due to injury. Greene averaged 10.9 ppg, 5.0 apg, and 3.0 steals per game, while shooting 56% from three.

The Buckeyes are also fairly lucky to be undefeated at this point. In conference, they’ve played single-digit games with Michigan and Michigan State, and had to beat unranked South Florida in overtime.

With a healthy Sheldon and Greene, the Buckeyes were probably co-favorites to win the conference with Indiana. Without them, where they stand is an open question. The Buckeyes played without Greene all last year, so they can probably adjust to her loss, but I don’t think they can afford to be without Sheldon for too much longer if they want to repeat as regular season conference champions.

Games remaining against the Big 7 (8): vs. Maryland (1/12); at Illinois (1/18); at Michigan (1/23); vs. Ohio State (1/26); vs. Iowa (2/9); at Ohio State (2/13); vs. Michigan (2/16); at Iowa (2/26)

Unfortunately for the conference, Indiana has similar injury issues to Ohio State. Star guard Grace Berger was injured in late November and hasn’t played since. Before Berger’s injury, Indiana looked like one of the best teams in the country. After, they played several games that were closer than expected and finally lost to a not-great Michigan State team. Worse, it’s unclear when Berger will return. Until she does, the Hoosiers are vulnerable.

Like Ohio State, their conference title hopes are very dependent on when Berger returns and how many games they lose before she does. The Hoosiers also aren’t a particularly deep team, so further injuries could impact them more than other teams.

Games remaining against the Big 7 (8): at Indiana (1/12); at Nebraska (1/22); vs. Michigan (1/26); at Iowa (2/2); vs. Ohio State (2/5); vs. Illinois (2/12); vs Iowa (2/21); at Ohio State (2/24)

The Terps are very up-and-down, which makes sense for a team that is very talented but largely hasn’t played together before this season. At its best, Maryland upset current #4 Notre Dame in South Bend and has a ranked win over Baylor. But the Terps have also lost on a neutral court to unranked DePaul and got crushed by 23 at home by Nebraska.

Ohio State and Indiana’s health issues give Maryland a great opportunity to win the conference, but its inconsistent play could also lead to an upset or two.

Games remaining against the Big 7 (7): vs. Iowa (1/7); vs. Indiana (1/23); at Maryland (1/26); vs. Illinois (2/2); vs. Nebraska (2/12); at Indiana (2/16); vs. Ohio State (2/20)

Like Maryland, the Wolverines have been up and down this season. The have ranked wins over North Carolina and Baylor on neutral courts, but also lost to Toledo at home. Earlier this week, they lost by 9 at Ohio State despite the Buckeyes playing without Sheldon and Greene. It’s fair to wonder whether Michigan can really win the Big Ten if it can’t defeat Ohio State when Ohio State isn’t close to 100%

But one advantage Michigan has is that its remaining schedule is comparatively easier than most other contenders. It only has two tough road games remaining. It also has opportunities for home wins over most of the other contenders.

Games remaining against the Big 7 (8): at Michigan (1/7); at Ohio State (1/23); vs. Nebraska (1/28); vs. Maryland (2/2); at Indiana (2/9); at Nebraska (2/18); at Maryland (2/21); vs. Indiana (2/26)

Iowa’s remaining schedule is probably the hardest of any of the top teams. The Hawkeyes have road games against each of the teams ranked above them, and there’s a good chance Berger will be back for one or both of Iowa’s games against Indiana.

That said, I do think Iowa has been relatively unlucky this year. The Hawks have played four single-digit games this season and are 1-3 in those games. Change a few plays in each of those three closes loses and Iowa could easily be 14-1 and ranked in the top 5 nationally.

Iowa’s offense is almost as good as last year’s despite Gabbie Marshall regressing significantly as a shooter and Monika Czinano shooting 6-7% below her career numbers. Iowa’s defense is better than last year despite periods of notable lapses. And through a team effort Iowa has become one of the best defensive rebounding teams in the country.

Iowa certainly hasn’t had the start to the season it wanted. Its remaining schedule may be too much to overcome to repeat as regular season conference champions. But Iowa is still a good team that could certainly go on a run come March.

Games remaining against the Big 7 (6): at Ohio State; (1/8) vs. Indiana (1/18); at Michigan (2/2); at Nebraska (2/9); at Maryland (2/12); vs. Nebraska (2/22)

Illinois has fewer games remaining against other Big 7 teams (6) than all of the other teams. It also plays Nebraska (likely the weakest team of the Big 7) for two of those six games. Based on that, it might be tempting to project Illinois as a dark horse conference champion.

That said, Illinois’ schedule isn’t quite as easy as the last paragraph makes it seem. Four of those six games are on the road, including trips to Ohio State, Michigan, and Maryland where the Illini will almost certainly be underdogs. The schedule also limits the teams Illinois might be able to upset at home, as Indiana is the only other team currently ranked that Illinois plays in Champaign the rest of the season.

I’m also still skeptical that Illinois’ talent level is where it needs to be to win the conference. The Illini certainly deserved to beat Iowa on Sunday, but they rely heavily on long jump shots offensively, and their defense gave up plenty of points to Iowa in that game.

Illinois is a great story. Its turnaround from conference basement to conference contender is remarkable. But I’ll need to see more from them before I start to believe they’re in the midst of a fairytale conference championship season.

Games remaining against the Big 7 (7): vs. Ohio State (1/14); vs. Maryland (1/22); at Iowa (1/28); vs. Illinois (2/9); at Michigan (2/12); vs. Iowa (2/18); at Illinois (2/22)

Frankly, I debated whether to even put Nebraska on this list. The Huskers are the only team on the list with two conference losses already, and have been plagued by injury and uneven play. They also just lost starter Allison Weidner to a season-ending injury.

But the Huskers have also earned a couple big victories so far this season. They beat Maryland 90-67 at Maryland and defeated ranked Kansas 85-79 in triple overtime. They almost added a third on Sunday, pushing Indiana to overtime in Bloomington.

I think it’s highly unlikely that Nebraska wins the conference at this point, but the Huskers should be a solid NCAA Tournament team, and can certainly play spoiler in the conference race with seven games remaining against the other Big 7 teams.