Brecht Watch 2023: The Spartan Rebound
In the past month, most teams have taken at least one strike against Brody Brecht. The primary reason for that is pitch control: Brecht has been wild in his last few appearances, with 24 walks and 4 hit batsmen in 19.2 innings pitched since the start of April, coming into Sunday's Michigan State game.
Perhaps a less obvious reason is how much teams struggle against Brecht when they swing the bat. Entering Sunday, teams were hitting just .181 against Brecht, including just 1 home run and 9 total extra-base hits, in his career. With results like that, it’s no wonder teams are hesitant to swing.
Despite that data and Brecht’s recent struggles, Michigan State showed up Sunday ready to swing the bat. They did so at their peril.
Brecht's Line
Beyond the Box Score
Pitch Count: 93
Balls: 39
Strikes: 54
Strikes Looking: 15
Contact Strikes: 24
Swings and Misses: 15
First Pitch Strikes: 13/24
Batters that Took a First Strike: 13/21—3 batters walked on 4 pitches
First Time Through Order: 1-8, 3 K, BB, infield single
Second Time Through Order: 0-8, 2 K, BB
Third Time Through Order: 0-3, 3 K, 3 BB
vs Lefties: 1-13, 5 K, 3 BB, infield single
vs. Righties: 0-5, 3 K, 2 BB
Results with First Pitch Strike: 1-12, 7 K, BB, infield single
Results with First Pitch Ball: 0-7, K, 4 BB
Swinging Early
Last week against Ohio State, just two of 13 batters swung at the first strike that they saw. None of Illinois State’s three hitters did in Brecht’s mid-week relief outing.
Despite that, and despite the success teams like Ohio State and Penn State had in taking pitches, Michigan State’s hitters were much more aggressive against Brecht early.
Five Michigan State batters swung at the first strike they saw the first time through the order. But it didn’t stop there. Michigan State’s best hitter—Brock Vradenburg—had a runner on first with one out and a 3-1 count in the first inning. Instead of taking the 3-1 and forcing Brecht to throw strikes to keep out of a jam, Vradenburg grounded out harmlessly to shortstop, and Iowa ended up getting out of the inning shortly thereafter.
Michigan State was more selective the second and third times through the order, as just three hitters swung at first strikes the second time through, and none did their third time through. But by then, taking pitches was no longer a winning strategy for Sparty, as Brecht had locked in on the mound: from the last out of the first inning through the end of the 5th, Brecht retired 13 straight Spartans, flashing the dominance that has pushed him into first-round MLB draft conversations.
6th Inning “Struggles”
Brecht finally ran into trouble in the 6th inning, as he walked four and surrendered the only run of his start. But even those struggles were a bit deceptive, as the umpire’s shrinking strike zone played a big role.
Brecht started the inning with a 3-2 count. He threw a payoff slider that looked like strike three. The umpire disagreed, and Michigan State had an opening walk. In a couple of Brecht’s other walks in the inning, it looked like he had thrown a first strike too, but the umpire called balls instead.
For whatever reason, it looked like the home plate umpire had trouble judging Brecht’s slider in the 6th, leading to some trouble with the count that, for once, Brecht perhaps hadn't earned. Despite the tight zone, he bore down and struck out the side to get out of trouble without allowing more than a run.
Iowa was still nursing a two-run lead at this point, so Brecht did well to keep his Hawkeyes on top while the offense was still warming up.
Small Samples
Brecht’s first four batters Sunday show the perils of judging by small sample sizes. We know Brecht does significantly better in at-bats when he gets a first pitch strike, but today, he threw first pitch strikes to two of the first four batters — who then reached base on a single and walk. The two he started with balls, meanwhile, recorded outs.
The trend quickly righted itself, and Brecht rebounded and retired the next 11 batters that he started with first-pitch strikes.
Just What Brecht Needed
After a month of struggles, Brecht needed a big start to get things going and that’s exactly what he got today. In the 2nd through 5th innings, Brecht retired the side without allowing a baserunner. He had solid control of both his fastball and slider, and even got out of trouble in the 6th with little difficulty when the umpire squeezed him.
If Brecht can continue pitching like this, he can be a weapon for Iowa in postseason play and can set himself up well for what will be an important summer for his draft stock.