Is there a path to an at-large bid for Iowa?

Going into the weekend, the Iowa Hawkeyes were safely inside the NCAA Tournament projection and the assumption was that three series wins to end the year would end with a tournament appearance. However, that plan was flipped on its side with a series loss to Illinois.

Adding insult to injury, Maryland swept Purdue, putting themselves now two games ahead of the Hawkeyes for fourth place in the conference, going into the last two weekends of the season. All the sudden, the clear path to a postseason appearance has blurred and it may be too late to repair the damage. So, it’s time to panic right? Just hold on before you give up.

What is the big question that must be answered going forward? How is the committee going to evaluate the Big Ten Conference when it comes to selecting at-large bids? Over the last few weeks, D1Baseball and Baseball America have made it seem like that the committee will not be able to use RPI when evaluating Big Ten teams because the did not play a non-conference schedule.

“The Big Ten is only playing conference games, so it is useless to compare their RPIs to teams from other conferences or to the typical RPI benchmarks necessary for at-large bids. All that matters here are the records and head-to-head results,” said D1Baseball last week in their weekly “stock report” article.

The thought has been that the top four teams in the Big Ten will get a bid to the tournament.

Aaron Fitt and Kendall Rogers of D1Baseball did their weekly chat with fans today and the Big Ten was a subject of conversation for part of it.

“I think I still see five bids for the Big Ten, although Iowa definitely hurt its cause with that home series loss to Illinois…we’ll see if we’ve got room for the Hawkeyes when we build our field of 64…If they’re in, they’ll likely be one of the last teams in,” said Aaron Fitt.

Kendall did not answer with quite the same optimism, saying “I would have Iowa on the bad side of the bubble right now. Hawkeyes will need to finish very strong to get in.” The D1Baseball projection comes out tomorrow, so we will have to wait and evaluate their position then.

With that in mind, lets take a look at the road ahead for the two highlighted teams, Iowa and Maryland. Currently, Maryland is on a five-game win streak and sits at an overall record of 24-14. Iowa has fallen to 22-16, which is two games behind the Terrapins.

The good news is that the remaining schedules for Iowa and Maryland are opposites. The Terps finish the season with Michigan and Indiana, who are currently tied for second in the Big Ten. On the other hand, Iowa plays Northwestern and Michigan State, with both series taking place on the road, but the two teams are a combined 27-41.

The Northwestern series is up in the air because the Cats have had issues with Covid and only traveled to Nebraska with around 20 healthy players, so if more contact tracing cases occur Iowa could be looking for an opponent.

Luckily, Minnesota may cancel with Purdue, which would give Iowa the chance to add a series with the Boilermakers. Worst case scenario? Northwestern cancels and Minnesota plays Purdue leaving Iowa without an opponent. That would likely end Iowa’s chances then and there.

So, assuming Iowa plays this coming weekend, what exactly is Iowa hoping for out of Maryland? A 4-2 finish would give Iowa a shot to tie for fourth place, but ultimately you are hoping for two series losses and a 26-18 finish or a 3-3 split finish and a 27-17 record. Then the goal for Iowa should be to finish the season 6-0 (28-16) and get themselves in the most comfortable position going into Selection Monday, but 5-1 would put them at 27-17. With Iowa going 3-1 vs Maryland during the season, you would expect that the Hawkeyes would be favored over the Terps if it came down to that.

Outside of the Big Ten, Iowa needs to root for bubble teams like Kentucky, Mercer, Tulane, Wichita St, UC Santa Barbara, Alabama and Virginia to lose some games to make sure that four Big Teams does not get squeezed to three.

Also, another thing to watch is bid stealers. You hear this a lot with basketball, when a team that was not projected to be in wins their conference tournament and gets the autobid. Iowa needs to root for VCU, Liberty, USC Upstate, Northeastern, Wright State and Fairfield to roll through their respective conference tournaments to keep those leagues at one bid. Then you need to hope no one pulls a 2017 Iowa and steals a bid in a power conference.

While the picture has blurred and the room for error has disappeared, the Hawkeyes still have a shot to make the NCAA Tournament as an at-large. The pitching staff will need to lock in and throw their best games of the season, while the bats need to get hot. The last six games need to be played as if they are postseason games and if they do that, they could still play themselves into the tournament.

As I said when this team was 4-8, don’t panic. The season is not over yet. This team has the ability to finish strong and Coach Heller will have them prepared to take on the Cats and Spartans.