Preview: 2023 Big Ten Wrestling Tournament

WHAT: 2023 Big Ten Wrestling Tournament
WHEN:
Saturday, March 4
Session I: 9 AM CT
Session II: 4:30 PM CT (wrestlebacks) | 6:30 PM CT (semifinals)

Sunday, March 5
Session III: 12 PM CT
Session IV (Championship Finals): 3:30 PM CT

WHERE: Crisler Center (Ann Arbor, MI)
TV: BTN (Sessions I, II, Championship Finals)
RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network (Steven Grace and Mark Ironside) | AM 800 KXIC or YouTube
MOBILE: www.foxsports.com/mobile (free w/ cable sub) or BTN+ ($)
ONLINE: www.foxsports.com/live
FOLLOW: @IowaAwesome | @Hawks_Wrestling | @IowaonBTN

The 2023 Big Ten Wrestling Tournament is set to take place this weekend. Iowa, ranked #2 in the country, will be trying to win its first Big Ten championship since 2021. Iowa has a wrestler ranked in the Top 8 at each weight at the tournament, including four wrestlers ranked in the top four at their respective weights.

125: #1 Spencer Lee (RS SR, 13-0)
133: #8 Brody Teske (RS JR, 6-2)
141: #1 Real Woods (SR, 13-0)
149: #4 Max Murin (RS SR, 15-3)
157: #5 Cobe Siebrecht (RS JR, 10-4)
165: #3 Patrick Kennedy (RS SO, 16-2)
174: #7 Nelson Brands (RS SR, 6-4)
184: #5 Abe Assad (JR, 15-2)
197: #5 Jacob Warner (RS SR, 12-4)
285: #3 Tony Cassioppi (SR, 17-2)

Full brackets for each weight are available here.

125 - BYE
133 - #8 Brody Teske (RS JR, 6-2) vs. #9 RayVon Foley (MSU) (RS SR, 12-8)
141 - BYE
149 - #4 Max Murin (RS SR, 15-3) vs. #13 Payton Omania (MSU) (RS JR, 12-11)
157 - #5 Cobe Siebrecht (RS JR, 10-4) vs. #12 Paddy Gallagher (OSU) (SO, 10-6)
165 - #3 Patrick Kennedy (RS SO, 16-2) vs. #14 John Best (MD) (SO, 10-14)
174 - #7 Nelson Brands (RS SR, 6-4) vs. #10 Jackson Turley (RU) (RS SO, 8-10)
184 - #5 Abe Assad (JR, 15-2) vs. #12 Ben Vanadia (PUR) (RS SR, 11-14)
197 - #5 Jacob Warner (RS SR, 12-4) vs. #12 Andrew Davison (NU) (RS SR, 17-11)
285 - #3 Tony Cassioppi (SR, 17-2) vs. #14 Austin Emerson (NEB) (RS FR, 8-3)

The top two seeds at each weight have a bye; for Iowa, that means Lee and Woods will not compete until the quarterfinals.

Murin wrestled Omania at last year's Big Ten Tournament; Max won 12-0. Assad wrestled Vanadia at the Iowa-Purdue dual earlier this season; Abe pinned him in 4:15. Warner wrestled Davison at the Iowa-Northwestern dual last year and won 11-2.

Teske, Kennedy, Brands, and Cassioppi have not previously wrestled their opponents.

125 - #1 Spencer Lee (RS SR, 13-0) vs. #8 Dean Peterson (RU) (RS FR, 19-7) OR #9 Jack Medley (UM) (RS SR, 19-7)
141 - #1 Real Woods (SR, 13-0) vs. #8 Parker Filius (PUR) (RS SR, 17-7) OR #9 Dylan D’Emilio (OSU) (RS JR, 13-9)

Lee is 3-0 lifetime against Medley; he beat him via 8-1 decision and 19-3 technical fall in 2020 and via 11-2 major decision at the Iowa-Michigan dual this year. He's never faced Peterson before.

Woods beat Filius via 8-0 major decision at last year's NCAA Tournament; he's never faced D'Emilio before.

More quarterfinal matches will be added after the results of Iowa's other eight wrestlers in the first round.

125 – 9
133 – 9
141 – 9
149 – 9
157 – 10
165 – 8
174 – 7
184 – 9
197 – 9
285 – 9

The NCAA Tournament allocations refer to how many finishing spots at each weight class automatically qualify for the NCAA Tournament. Given the strength and depth of the Big Ten, the conference always gets a massive number of automatic qualifying spots and this season is no different. All weights except 165 and 174 qualify at least nine wrestlers per weight (and 157 even qualifies 10 wrestlers).

Thus, in order to earn an automatic qualifying spot to the NCAA Tournament, Iowa wrestlers need to finish in the Top 9 at every weight except 165 (Top 8) or 174 (Top 7). If they all wrestle to the seed that they received, all 10 Iowa wrestlers should earn automatic qualifying spots, though Teske (#8 at 133) and Brands (#7 at 174) would be cutting it close. That said, most Iowa wrestlers would also stand a very good chance of earning an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament if they finished outside the automatic qualifying spots.

From the standpoint of the Big Ten team championship race, this looks like a two-horse race. Iowa is the only team that would place all 10 wrestlers on the podium at their respective weights, if all 10 guys wrestled to seed (or better). Penn State counters that by having the most top-end firepower in the field; they have four #1 seeds, plus three more #2 seeds. That sort of top-end strength is impossible to match.

Indeed, if all the wrestlers on Penn State and Iowa wrestled to their respective seeds, this is what the placement points would look like for each team:

Penn State: 116
Iowa: 89

Those totals don't factor in advancement points (although if Penn State places seven wrestlers in the finals, as their seeds suggest they should, they'll also score plenty of placement points, obviously) or bonus points (unpredictable, although historically Penn State has been excellent at accruing these).

That all sets up a pretty steep hill for Iowa to climb to win a Big Ten championship.

Iowa would need to have several wrestlers exceed their seeds and make it to the finals at their respective weights; meanwhile, they'd also probably need a few Penn State wrestlers to underperform and suffer some upsets. None of that is impossible, per se, but it's also not the most likely outcome.

We'll find out how it all starts to shake out tomorrow morning, though.

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