Published Feb 11, 2023
Preview: Iowa MBB at Minnesota
Ross Binder  •  Hawkeye Beacon
Managing Editor

WHO: Minnesota Golden Gophers (7-15, 1-11 Big Ten)
WHEN: 12:00 PM CT
WHERE: Williams Arena (Minneapolis, MN)
TV: FS1 (Brandon Gaudin and Devin Harris)
RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network (Gary Dolphin and Bobby Hansen) | XM 380 or SXM 970
MOBILE: www.foxsports.com/mobile
ONLINE: www.foxsports.com/live
FOLLOW: @IowaAwesome | @IowaHoops | @IowaonBTN
LINE: Iowa-11
KENPOM: Iowa -10 (83% chance of winning)

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PROJECTED STARTING FIVE

Iowa
G Tony Perkins (11.4 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 2.4 apg, 1.3 spg, 0.4 bpg, 41.4 FG%, 31.1 3FG%)
G Ahron Ulis (6.5 ppg, 1.8 rpg, 2.4 apg, 0.6 spg, 0.1 bpg, 40.0 FG%, 32.0 3FG%)
F Connor McCaffery (7.3 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 3.1 apg, 1.4 spg, 0.0 bpg, 41.3 FG%, 36.0 3FG%)
F Kris Murray (20.7 ppg, 8.2 rpg, 1.8 apg, 0.8 spg, 1.2 bpg, 50.8 FG%, 34.6 3FG%)
F Filip Rebraca (14.0 ppg, 8.0 rpg, 2.1 apg, 0.6 spg, 1.3 bpg, 57.2 FG%, 33.3 3FG%)

Minnesota
G Ta'Lon Cooper (10.5 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 5.6 apg, 1.1 spg, 0.9 bpg, 41.1 FG%, 39.5 3FG%)
G Taurus Samuels (2.9 ppg, 1.9 rpg, 1.1 apg, 0.4 spg, 0.1 bpg, 27.0 FG%, 28.3 3FG%)
F Jamison Battle (12.6 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 1.6 apg, 0.7 spg, 0.2 bpg, 36.8 FG%, 29.9 3FG%)
F Joshua Ola-Joseph (7.4 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 0.3 apg, 0.5 spg, 0.4 bpg, 51.1 FG%, 23.1 3FG%)
F Pharrel Payne (7.3 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 1.3 apg, 0.5 spg, 1.1 bpg, 66.7% FG, 0.0%)

PREVIEW

Minnesota enters this game off an eight-day break; the Gophers' scheduled game against Illinois earlier in the week was postponed due to a combination of positive COVID tests and injuries within the Gopher program. But per head coach Ben Johnson, the Gophers are healthy enough to play against Iowa:

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That postponed Illinois game paused the tailspin the Gophers had found themselves in over the past several weeks -- Minnesota has lost seven in a row and nine of 10 ahead of Sunday's game. The Gophers' lone win in 2023 -- and only Big Ten victory -- came over an also-freefalling Ohio State program a month ago.

The losses have been getting uglier for Minnesota as well; the Gophers lost by three at Wisconsin and by two to Nebraska in early January, but on their current 7-game losing skid, the Gophers' average margin of defeat has been nearly 20 points. The last two losses were entirely non-competitive: two consecutive 35-point drubbings, at Rutgers and at home to Maryland.

Those games, as well as a 20-point loss to Northwestern and a narrow loss to Indiana, coincided with the absence of big man Dawson Garcia, a 6'11", 230-lb North Carolina transfer who has been the Gophers' best player this season. Garcia leads the Gophers in scoring (14.9 ppg) and rebounds (6.3 rpg) but has missed the last four games with a bone bruise on his ankle; he's listed as a "game-time decision" for Sunday's game against Iowa.

The one thing that hasn't been a full-on tire fire for Minnesota this season has been field goal defense -- overall the Gophers have held opponents to an effective FG% of 49.5%, which is 134th nationally out of 363. Opponents have only made 47.8% of their 2-point attempts against Minnesota, which puts the Gophers 90th nationally.

Yearly averages don't quite tell the full story there, though, because the Gophers' defense has dropped off a cliff during their recent losing streak. Northwestern, Rutgers, and Maryland all averaged 1.3+ points per possession against Minnesota, and all three teams made at least 55% of their 2-point field goals. Garcia's absence has robbed Minnesota of a rim protector, and the defense has completely collapsed as a result.


Minnesota's defense also doesn't force turnovers (336th nationally) or keep opponents off the offensive glass (296th nationally). Teams have lit them up from long range too (opponents have made 35.5% of their 3-point tries).

Suffice to say, there are a lot of weaknesses in the Gopher defense.

And the defense is probably the better side of the ball for Minnesota. The Gophers rank 281st in offensive efficiency, 317th in effective FG%, 263rd in turnover rate, and 265th in offensive rebound rate. Their shooting numbers are truly apocalyptic: 339th in 3-point tries, 263rd in 2-point attempts, and 363rd in free throws. So the Gophers can't shoot straight, can't hold onto the ball, and can't rebound their misses.

Jamison Battle, a 6'7", 225 lb wing who transferred from George Washington before last season, has been Minnesota's leading scorer without Garcia, though he hasn't actually been shooting the ball very well: 36.8% from the floor and 29.9 from 3-point range. Ta'Lon Cooper, a 6'4'", 195 lb guard who transferred from Morehead State before the season, is the only other Gopher averaging in double figures (10.5 ppg); he's also been a solid distributor (5.6 apg) and the only real threat from the perimeter (39.5% on around 3.5 attempts per game).

Freshman bigs Pharrel Payne (6'9", 255) and Joshua Ola-Joseph (6'7", 215) have been pressed into service a lot this season out of a lack of options (especially with Garcia sidelined) and hopefully that will pay dividends in the future; they haven't been very effective in their minutes this season, though Payne has been making almost two-thirds of his shots by staying close to the rim.

KEY FACTORS

Trap Game. If there's anyone that shouldn't need to be reminded of the potential to lose to bad teams, it's this Hawkeye team. Those December losses to Nebraska and Penn State (not to mention Eastern Illinois) remain blights on Iowa's resume, and the Hawkeyes are still, bizarrely, 7-1 against teams in the upper half of the conference and 0-5 against teams in the lower half of the league. Thursday night's loss to Purdue ended Iowa's unbeaten record against teams in the upper half of the Big Ten; this game is the perfect opportunity to end that unsightly 0-5 mark against teams in the bottom half as well. The Gophers have given plenty of Big Ten teams scares on their way to a 1-11 mark in the league; recent routs aside, they've suffered very close losses to Wisconsin, Nebraska, Michigan, and Indiana in 2023.

Guard Play. Given the Gophers' inexperience in the post and general poor play in the paint, Kris Murray and Filip Rebraca may be able to feast — especially if Dawson Garcia is out, or limited by his ankle injury. That said, it would be good to see Iowa's guards bounce back from an ugly shooting night at Purdue. Tony Perkins, Ahron Ulis, Payton Sandfort, and Connor McCaffery combined to go 8/32 (25%) from the field against the Boilermakers. This could be a good opportunity to regain some of that shooting touch.