WHO: Nebraska Cornhuskers (13-3, 3-2 Big Ten)
WHEN: 8:30 PM CT (Friday, January 12, 2024)
WHERE: Carver-Hawkeye Arena (Iowa City, IA)
TV: BTN
RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network (Gary Dolphin, Bob Hansen)
MOBILE: foxsports.com/mobile
ONLINE: foxsports.com/live
FOLLOW: @IowaAwesome | @IowaHoops | @IowaonBTN
LINE: Iowa -4.5
KENPOM SPREAD: Iowa -1 (Iowa 84, Nebraska 83; Iowa 55% chance of winning)

What a difference a few months can make. A few months ago, a home game against Nebraska (16-16 a year ago, including 9-11 in Big Ten play) looked like one of the most winnable games on Iowa's Big Ten schedule. Now it's a game the Hawkeyes have just a 55% chance to win, per KenPom -- a coin flip game, in other words.

What happened? Well, Nebraska might have finally put things together a bit in year five under Fred Hoiberg. The Cornhuskers raced out to a 7-0 record, with the closest of those seven victories coming in a 10-point win over Duquesne. Nebraska dropped back-to-back games to Creighton and Minnesota after that hot start, then rattled off five straight wins in a row.

Most recently, Nebraska lost 88-72 at Wisconsin last weekend, before turning around and pulling off not just the biggest win of the Hoiberg Era, but the biggest win for Nebraska basketball in several decades: 88-72 over #1 Purdue in Lincoln on Tuesday night. Nebraska didn't just upset the Boilermakers; they dominated them for long stretches of the game.

Nebraska's gaudy 13-3 record was created with the help of some favorable scheduling -- the Huskers' non-conference strength of schedule ranked 352nd in the nation -- and a fair amount of home cooking (Nebraska played just two non-conference games away from home). Still, that favorable scheduling led to a lot of lopsided wins, which certainly seems to have boosted Nebraska's confidence, as evidenced by the big win over Purdue just a few days ago.

G Jamarques Lawrence (6'3", 183 lbs, 6.1 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 2.5 apg, 34.7 FG%, 28.0 3FG%)
G Keisi Tominaga (6'2", 179 lbs, 14.6 ppg, 1.9 rpg, 1.3 apg, 1.1 spg, 46.5 FG%, 37.5 3FG%)
F Juwan Gary (6'6", 221 lbs, 12.1 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 1.4 apg, 1.3 spg, 53.0 FG%, 35.9 3FG%)
F Brice Williams (6'7", 213 lbs, 13.3 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 2.8 apg, 0.9 spg, 43.6 FG%, 38.3 3FG%)
C Rienk Mast (6'10", 248 lbs, 13.3 ppg, 8.7 rpg, 2.9 apg, 44.8 FG%, 31.4 3FG%)

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Nebraska didn't have much of an identity under Hoiberg during his first four seasons in charge -- they were just generally pretty bad on both sides of the court. If anything, they were a stronger defensive team, ranking 40th in defensive efficiency in 2020-21 and 69th in 2022-23. That was a marked change to Hoiberg's Iowa State teams, which were very offense-first: his last four ISU squads ranked 12th, 9th, 8th, and 24th in offensive efficiency.

This season Nebraska finally has a capable offense. The Cornhuskers are averaging 78.4 ppg, 92nd nationally, and rank 29th in offensive efficiency. Nebraska is finally starting to more closely resemble what a good Fred Hoiberg team has typically looked like.

Nebraska hasn't been great at anything on offense this season -- but they've been at least pretty good at almost everything. The Cornhuskers are 77th in effective FG% (52.9%), 73rd in turnover rate (15.8%), and 116th in offensive rebounding rate (31.1%) and free throw rate (35.4%). They've been making 35.5% of their 3-point attempts (89th) as well as 52.6% of their 2-point tries. The only area they've struggled on offense is in not getting shots blocked -- 10.6% of Cornhusker shot attempts have been blocked, which ranks 283rd.

On defense, Nebraska is mediocre at preventing opponents from attacking the offensive glass (167th) and forcing turnovers (196th), but the Huskers have been very good at contesting shots and not fouling. Opponents have an effective FG% of just 34% against Nebraska, and have been making just 31.4% of 3-point tries (88th) and only 44.7% of 2-point attempts (28th). The latter stat is especially noteworthy because Nebraska doesn't block many shots on defense (just 7.7% of shot attempts, 243rd nationally).

From an individual standpoint, Nebraska's success this season has come from a very balanced attack. Four players are scoring in double figures, with all four averaging between 12-15 ppg. That balance makes it hard for defenses to key on any one particular player and try to slow him down; do that and Nebraska still has several other players who can hurt you offensively.

The leading scorer is guard Keisi Tominaga, who averages 14.6 ppg and just gets buckets. He doesn't get many rebounds (1.9 rpg) or many assists (1.3 apg), but he is very good at putting the ball in the basket. Tominaga is Nebraska's best 3-point shooter (37.5% on a team-high 88 attempts), but he's also a lethal free throw shooter (86%) and an effective finisher on 2-point shots as well (60.7%).

Bigs Brice Williams and Rienk Mast are also key weapons for the Nebraska offense. Both are averaging 13.3 ppg, though they get their points in different ways. Mast can stretch the floor (31.4% from 3-point range on 51 attempts) and is another sharp free throw shooter (82%), but he does most of his work in the paint and near the rim (53/103 on 2-point shots. He's almost Nebraska's leading rebounder at 8.7 rpg.

Williams uses a more balanced scoring attack. Along with reserve CJ Wilcher, he's Nebraska's second-best 3-point shooter (38.3% on 23-of-60 shooting). He's also another dead-eye free throw shooter (88%) who gets to the line often (60 attempts, or almost four trips per game) and a decent shooter inside the arc as well (46.9% on 2-point tries).

The final double-figure scorer is Juwan Gary, who's averaging 12.1 ppg this season, as well as 5.8 rpg. Gary has been strong from outside (35.9% from 3 on 39 attempts) as well as inside the arc (61.8% on 2-point attempts). Gary and Williams are also two of Nebraska's most disruptive defenders, as each player averages around two blocks + steals per game.

Friday night's game is the second of a stretch that includes four home games in five games. On paper, that's a stretch of games where Iowa needs to maximize its opportunities and come away with a victory. That might be easier said than done -- after a road trip to Minnesota on Monday night, Iowa will welcome Purdue next Saturday and this game against Nebraska looks far more challenging than it did earlier in the season, given the Huskers' red-hot form.

To beat Nebraska, the Hawkeyes will need to duplicate the collective effort that they showed in last Saturday's win over Rutgers. They're also going to need to rebound well, get in transition as much as possible, and bring their long-range shooting. Nebraska has made 10 or more 3-pointers in six of their last seven games, including going 14-of-23 from deep in the win over Purdue. If that shooting form carries over into Friday's game, the Hawkeyes will be in big trouble no matter what they do.