Preview: Iowa MBB vs Ohio State

WHO: Ohio State Buckeyes (11-14, 3-11 Big Ten)
WHEN: 8:05 PM CT (Thursday, February 16, 2023)
WHERE: Carver-Hawkeye Arena (Iowa City, IA)
TV: ESPN2 (Kevin Brown and Robbie Hummel)
RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network (Gary Dolphin and Bobby Hansen) | XM 382 or SXM 972
MOBILE: www.espn.com/watch
ONLINE: www.espn.com/app
FOLLOW: @IowaAwesome | @IowaHoops | @IowaonBTN
LINE: Iowa-7.5
KENPOM: Iowa -5 (68% chance of winning)

Iowa
G Tony Perkins (11.3 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 2.6 apg, 1.4 spg, 0.4 bpg, 40.5 FG%, 30.4 3FG%)
G Ahron Ulis (6.4 ppg, 1.8 rpg, 2.5 apg, 0.6 spg, 0.2 bpg, 39.7 FG%, 32.1 3FG%)
F Connor McCaffery (7.1 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 3.2 apg, 1.5 spg, 0.0 bpg, 40.8 FG%, 36.8 3FG%)
F Kris Murray (21.0 ppg, 8.5 rpg, 1.8 apg, 0.9 spg, 1.2 bpg, 50.3 FG%, 35.6 3FG%)
F Filip Rebraca (14.1 ppg, 8.0 rpg, 2.1 apg, 0.6 spg, 1.2 bpg, 56.8 FG%, 33.3 3FG%)

Ohio State
G Bruce Thornton (9.0 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 2.6 apg, 0.8 spg, 0.0 bpg, 43.8 FG%, 37.0 3FG%)
G Sean McNeil (9.4 ppg, 2.1 rpg, 1.3 apg, 0.4 spg, 0.1 bpg, 40.8 FG%, 36.6 3FG%)
F Justice Sueing (12.4 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 1.8 apg, 0.7 spg, 0.4 bpg, 44.4 FG%, 23.5 3FG%)
F Brice Sensabaugh (16.4 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 0.9 apg, 0.6 spg, 0.4 bpg, 47.9 FG%, 43.0 3FG%)
C Zed Key (11.1 ppg, 7.8 rpg, 0.8 apg, 0.6 spg, 1.0 bpg, 55.1% FG, 29.2 3FG%)

The first 14 games of the Big Ten schedule for Iowa this season featured 13 unique opponents; Rutgers was the only team Iowa played twice in that stretch of games (the Hawkeyes won both games over the Scarlet Knights). The final six games of Iowa's 2023 Big Ten schedule are nothing but rematch games; the Hawkeyes play four teams that beat them earlier this season (Ohio State, Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Nebraska) as well as two teams that they beat earlier in the year (Northwestern and Indiana). Sweeping Northwestern and/or Indiana would be very nice, but an even bigger priority might be avenging those prior losses -- especially given where most of those teams sit in the Big Ten standings.

The first team on Iowa's potential Revenge Tour is Ohio State, who blasted the doors off Iowa in Columbus three weeks ago. Since then, Iowa has won four of six games, while Ohio State has lost six straight. In fact, that mid-January win over Iowa is Ohio State's only win since January 1; the Buckeyes have lost 11 of their last 12 games entering Thursday night. The bottom has well and truly fallen out on their season.

Ohio State beat Iowa in the first meeting this season because of some absolutely torrid shooting. The Buckeyes shot 56% from the field, scored 93 points (56 in the second half alone), and averaged 1.31 points per possession. They shot well from long range (8/16), but the Buckeyes did most of their damage closer to the basket. Ohio State was 28/48 (58%) on 2-point shots and outscored Iowa 50-32 in points in the paint.

It wasn't a case of Ohio State's bigs dominating down low, either -- big man Zed Key had 11 points and 9 rebounds, but shot just 4/10 from the floor. Most of the damage came from Ohio State's guards and wings, who sliced through Iowa's perimeter defense like it wasn't there. Freshman Brice Sensabaugh led Ohio State with 27 points, which included a 5/7 performance inside the 3-point arc (he was also 4/5 from deep, so Iowa wasn't really able to stop him anywhere on the court). Isaac Likekele had 18 points and Sean McNeil added 10 points; they combined to shoot 8/14 on 2-point attempts. The Ohio State game was a very long day, and a real low point for Iowa's guards.

Ohio State's offense... has not sustained that level of shooting prowess since then. The Buckeyes have not topped 70 points since the Iowa game, and they've been held under 1.00 points per possession in three of those six losses. OSU's three-point shooting has especially fallen off a cliff; the Buckeyes are 25/102 (25%) during their current six-game losing streak. They've made more than five three-pointers in a game once in that losing streak -- against Michigan State, they converted six long-range shots... on 29 attempts.

The offense has also struggled on 2-point shots, converting better than 50% in just two of the last six games. Ohio State's offense has crashed to 10th in the Big Ten in offensive efficiency, 13th in effective FG% (47.3) and dead last in 2-point FG% (45.3). They also rank near the bottom in non-steal turnovers (8.6% of possessions), so they are very prone to losing possession on offense on their own volition.

The Ohio State starting lineup has been in flux during this recent losing streak; only Key and freshman guard Bruce Thornton have started all of the last six games; 6'4" freshman guard Roddy Gayle made his first start of the season since the Iowa game in OSU's last game (against Michigan State); he had 5 points, 2 rebounds, and 2 assists in 26 minutes.

Sensabaugh still leads the team in scoring (16.4 ppg), but the Buckeyes have five players averaging 9.0 ppg or more this season. Justice Sueing (12.4 ppg) and Key (11.1 ppg) are the other top scorers on the team, but McNeil (9.4 ppg) and Thornton (9.0 ppg) are both capable of filling it up as well, especially if they get hot from 3-point range (both are shooting around 37% from deep this season, good for second-best on the team behind Sensabaugh, who's converting around 43% of his long range efforts).

Start Fast. Ohio State is in the midst of a massively disappointing season and in an absolute tailspin (again: losers of six straight and 11 of 12). Barring an improbable run in the Big Ten Tournament, the Buckeyes' season will come to an end in Chicago in a few weeks. But they'd probably still enjoy playing the spoiler and upsetting a few more teams above them in the standings before they wrap up this season. Iowa should be well aware of how potent the Ohio State offense can be when it gets going.

The best thing for Iowa to do is to not give Ohio State a reason to stay invested in this game. If the game stays close into the second half, it's not hard to see the Buckeyes locking in to try and upset Iowa. Conversely, if Iowa is able to jump on them early and build a big lead, it would not be surprising to see Ohio State check out of the game as it turns into another loss in a very lost season.

Defend the Guards. Iowa needs better defensive efforts from Tony Perkins and Ahron Ulis, as well as Connor McCaffery and Payton Sandfort (and Josh Dix and Dasonte Bowen, if they see much time off the bench). Perkins and Ulis had afternoons to forget against Ohio State in Columbus and struggled to slow down OSU's guards and wings at all. They can't let Ohio State attack the rim so easily in this game.

Long Range Efforts. The Hawkeyes shot 37% or better in all three home wins prior to their recent two-game road trip. Poor three-point shooting (5/18) contributed to Iowa's loss at Purdue, and the 1/7 first-half performance from behind the arc helped keep Sunday's win over Minnesota closer than it needed to be, for longer than it needed to be. Opponents have been lighting up Ohio State from deep in recent weeks -- Iowa needs to continue that trend.