WHO: Minnesota Golden Gophers (11-1)
WHEN: 1:00 PM CT (Saturday, December 30)
WHERE: Carver Hawkeye Arena (Iowa City, Iowa)
TV: Big Ten Network
RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network
ONLINE: https://www.foxsports.com/live
MOBILE: foxsports.com/mobile
FOLLOW: @IowaAwesome | @IowaWBB | @IowaonBTN
On January 1, 2023 Iowa had a road matchup against a resurgent Illinois team. The Illini came in 12-2, their best record in years. While Illinois was a great story, the Illini seemed a step below Iowa on paper.
The game didn't play out that way. Iowa played one of its worst games of the season, Illinois hit big shots in key moments, and the Illini came away with a 90-86 victory.
Minnesota is also in the midst of a resurgent season. The Gophers finished 11-19 last year and have already matched that win total. The improvement has been evident enough to earn the Gophers votes in the latest AP Poll.
Like Illinois last year, though, Minnesota also seems to be a step below Iowa on paper. Most of the Gophers' victories have come against weaker competition. Their only Top 100 NET wins are: 1) 94-88 over Drake at home in double overtime, 2) 60-58 over 7-5 Purdue at home, and 3) 67-54 over Stony Brook at home. Iowa has 6 top 100 NET victories by comparison, and Wisconsin is just outside the top 100.
The only game Minnesota played against a Top 25 caliber team was UConn at home and the Gophers lost 62-44. UConn was also without its second best player, Azzi Fudd, in the game.
Still the Gophers are in good position to compete for an NCAA Tournament bid this year, which is more than most expected when the season started. And an Illinois-like upset is always possible.
All stats from this preview are from HerHoopStats.
Best Players
6'0" guard Mara Braun is one of the best players in the country. She averages 20.3 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 3.3 apg, and 1.8 spg. Braun is shooting 51.3% from 2-point range and 40.6% from 3-point range this season. Braun is the best guard Iowa has faced since Virginia Tech's Georgia Amoore early in the season. Read more about Braun's journey's here:
Caitlin Clark and Mara Braun: Home State Heroes
Minnesota doesn't have a second best player necessarily. Instead, the Gophers have four other solid starters.
5'10" freshman guard/forward Grace Grocholski has had a great start to her college career. She averages 10.7 ppg and 4.8 rpg on 58.6% shooting on 2-point attempts and 36.8% shooting on 3-point attempts.
6'5" Sophie Hart is Minnesota's post. She averages 10.2 ppg and 4.9 rpg on 63.6% shooting from 2-point range. Hart was once an Iowa target in recruiting, but ended up at NC State. She didn't play much there over two seasons and transferred back to home state Minnesota this past off-season.
6'1" forward Mallory Heyer is Minnesota's best rebounder. She averages 9.3 ppg and 8.4 rpg, while shooting 45.2% from inside the arc and 36.8% from beyond the 3-point line.
Finally 5'11: guard Amaya Battle averages 9.9 ppg, 6.0 apg, and 4.0 rpg. She's shooting 44.2% on 2-point tries and averages fewer than one three-point attempt per game.
Play Style
Last year, Minnesota tried to outscore you. The Gophers averaged 76.5 possessions per 40 minutes and were one of the fastest teams in college basketball.
In coach Dawn Plitzuweit's first season, the Gophers' tempo has slowed down considerably. The Gophers now average 71.9 possessions per 40, which sits in the 58th percentile nationally. What the Gophers traded in pace, they've made up in improved defense.
Plitzuweit has used this style effectively before. She took South Dakota to the Sweet Sixteen in 2022, and was very close to making the Elite Eight. She then went to West Virginia and made the NCAA Tournament in her first season. Now she has Minnesota's rebuild well ahead of schedule.
Defensively, Minnesota is surrendering 54.5 points per game, which ranks 28th nationally. It's also a 19.1 point improvement from last year. The Gophers' defensive numbers are solid nearly across the board.
Minnesota holds opponents to 39.4% shooting on 2-point attempts, which ranks 34th nationally. The Gophers are holding opponents to just 28.5% shooting from 3-point range, which ranks 90th. When shots don't go in, Minnesota has been very good at closing out possessions, averaging 29.3 defensive rebounds per game, which ranks 39th.
The Gophers also average 9.8 steals per game, good for 59th. They only foul 12.6 times per game, which ranks 5th. The only area the Gophers don't rank well in is blocks. They average 2.3 per game, which ranks 268th.
Offensively, Minnesota averages 80.2 points per game, which ranks 28th. They shoot well from 2-point range (51.2%) and 3-point range (35.3%). They also rank highly in assists per game (17.8, good for 26th) and turnovers per game (13.1, ranking 30th).
X-Factor
Spread the scoring. In Iowa's toughest games this season (against Virginia Tech, Kansas State, and Iowa State) Iowa has struggled to get quality production from multiple starters.
Against Iowa State, three of Iowa's starters combined for four total points. At home against Kansas State, two starters combined for only two total points. Against Virginia Tech, two starters were shut out completely. In each of those games, Caitlin Clark had to shoulder too heavy of an offensive load and Iowa's offense struggled.
Minnesota can play very good defense. If the Gophers can shut down several of Iowa's starters, then the Hawkeyes could be on upset alert right before the new year.
