Preview: No. 4 Iowa WBB at No. 14 Indiana

WHO: Indiana Hoosiers (21-4 Overall, 12-3 Big Ten)
WHEN: 7:00 PM CT (Thursday, February 22, 2024)
WHERE: Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall (Bloomington, Indiana)
TV: https://www.peacocktv.com/watch/home
RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network
ONLINE: https://www.peacocktv.com/watch/home
MOBILE: https://www.peacocktv.com/watch/home
FOLLOW: @IowaAwesome | @IowaWBB | @IowaonBTN

It's late February now and it's still not clear how good Indiana is this season. Coming into the week, the Hoosiers only had three losses and they had come against #2 Ohio State, #3 Stanford, and #4 Iowa. The losses to Stanford and Iowa were 32- and 27-point losses, respectively, but each can be explained to an extent. The Stanford game was Indiana's first road game and just the second game of the season. Against Iowa, Indiana didn't actually make it to Iowa City until the day of the game, and the game itself was in doubt for days due to a winter storm.

On the other hand, Indiana's best victory is over #25 Princeton. After that, the Hoosiers' two best victories are over Nebraska and Michigan State, teams projected as a seven seed and and eight seed in ESPN's latest Bracketology. The Hoosiers' best argument at this point for being a Top 16 team--and the right to host the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament--is their lack of bad losses, not their quality wins.

That argument was itself disrupted on Monday as the Hoosiers were clobbered 86-66 by an Illinois team that entered the game with a 12-12 record. The Illini are a better team than their record might indicate, but Indiana was also down double digits for most of the game.

Thursday's matchup against Iowa could go a long way in proving just how good Indiana is this season. The Hoosiers finally get to face a Top 10 team at home. A win would give the Hoosiers their best win of the season and show that they deserve to host the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament as a Top 4 seed. A close loss would sting, but keep Indiana in the discussion to host. A blowout loss might end the Hoosiers' hosting hopes.

All statistics for this preview are from HerHoopStats.

Iowa beat Indiana 84-57 at home on January 13. The game wasn't a blowout from start to finish, though -- Iowa led just 43-37 at halftime, and the first half was even closer than that for long stretches.

Iowa's big advantage in the second half came mostly on its shooting. The Hawks shot 62.5% from the floor in the second half, including a red-hot 61.5% from three-point range. Indiana, meanwhile, shot 28.0% from the floor and just 22.2% from depp. Iowa also had a 19-9 rebounding edge in the second half.

Indiana has been one of the best shooting teams in the country this season, so it's unlikely that the Hoosiers will have such a poor shooting half at home.

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Indiana's best player is 6'3" All-American post Mackenzie Holmes. Holmes is one of the most efficient scorers in the country, shooting 66.2% on two-point attempts. She averages 20.6 ppg, 7.0 rpg, and 1.4 bpg. In Iowa's first matchup against Indiana, Holmes had a strong first half, scoring 12 points, grabbing four rebounds, and dishing three assists. In the second half, though, Holmes shot just 1-of-7 from the floor. Holmes is very good at drawing fouls, so Iowa might have to go deep into its bench at the 5 position in order to contain her.

5'10" guard Sara Scalia continues to have a breakout season as a scorer. She is averaging 16.0 ppg, 3.8 rpg, and 2.5 apg while shooting 43.8% from three-point range. She hasn't been quite as good on two-point attempts, converting just 43.9% of her shots inside the arc. In the first Iowa game Scalia was quiet, scoring just 6 points on 3-of-10 shooting.

6'3" forward Yarden Garzon is even better from the three-point line. Garzon was one of the most impressive freshman in the country last season. She hasn't taken the step forward many expected in her sophomore season, but she's still averaging 11.6 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 3.1 apg on 45.3% shooting from three-point range and 50.8% shooting on two-point tries.

5'11" guard Chloe Moore-McNeil is Indiana's best perimeter defender, but can also score when needed. She averages 10.4 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 4.8 apg, and 1.4 spg and is shooting 51.6% inside the arc and 42.5% beyond the arc.

6'2" guard/forward Sydney Parrish has been out the past few weeks with an injury, but she returned to play six minutes in Indiana's loss to Illinois. She only recorded one rebound, one foul, and one turnover in that time, so it's fair to wonder how much of an impact she might have in this game. Parrish averages 10.2 ppg, 5.6 rpg, and 2.3 apg, and has shot 39.3% from deep and 51.8% inside the arc this season.

Indiana averages 71.2 possessions per 40, which ranks 146th nationally. Iowa loves to play fast (the Hawks average 77.3 possessions per 40), so this game poses a potential style clash.

The first Iowa-Indiana matchup was played at a fairly slow tempo. Iowa only scored 84 points (8.7 points below its average) despite shooting near its season average from the floor and making 15 three-pointers (the Hawks average 10.7 made threes per game). Iowa might try to speed things up in the rematch to take Indiana out of its comfort zone.

Offensively, Indiana averages 80.3 ppg, which ranks 15th nationally. A key reason for the Hoosiers' success is their shooting. They lead the nation in FG%, shooting 51.8% from the floor. They have been excellent on both two-point attempts (57.6%) and three-point tries (41.0%). The Hoosiers also rank highly in assists per game (18.7, 14th) and turnovers per game (13.2, 31st). The only area where Indiana struggles on offense is offensive rebounding. The Hoosiers grab just 25.8% of available offensive rebounds, which ranks 317th.

Defensively, Indiana surrenders 64.0 ppg, which ranks 159th. Indiana doesn't generate many steals (6.6, 262nd), but also rebounds much better on the defensive end (74.9% of rebounds, 18th).

Be wary of the road environment. Iowa's losses to Ohio State and Nebraska followed a similar script: the Hawkeyes built a fairly big lead by the early fourth quarter, then fell apart late. In both instances, Iowa's opponent needed a nearly perfect finishing sequence to, but both were able to do just that. It's probably not a coincidence that both games happened on the road.

A raucous crowd can inspire the home team to believe that an upset or a comeback is possible. It can also make it that much harder for all of the players on the visiting team to be on the same page.

If Iowa gets a big lead at Indiana, the Hawks have to be ready to weather a big comeback attempt. They need to keep attacking the basket and answer every Hoosier run.

The good news for Iowa is that this is the last true road game of the season. Iowa still has a trip to Minnesota, but the Gophers haven't been as good since Mara Braun's injury, and there will be a lot of Iowa fans in attendance at that game as well. The Big Ten Tournament (also in Minneapolis) should be close to a home environment for Iowa, and the Hawks should have a decent crowd for any NCAA Tournament game.

The bad news for Iowa is that a loss to Indiana would probably spell the end of Iowa's hopes of claiming a Big Ten regular season championship. The Hawks would be two games behind Ohio State in the loss column. To avoid that, Iowa will need to overcome the Hoosiers -- and a hostile Assembly Hall crowd.