Preview: No. 4 Iowa WBB vs. Illinois
WHO: Illinois Fighting Illini (13-12 overall, 7-8 Big Ten)
WHEN: 12:00 PM CT(Sunday, February 25, 2024)
WHERE: Carver Hawkeye Arena (Iowa City, Iowa)
TV: Fox Sports 1
RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network
ONLINE: https://www.foxsports.com/live
MOBILE: https://www.foxsports.com/live
FOLLOW: @IowaAwesome | @IowaWBB | @IowaonBTN
Illinois made its first NCAA Tournament in 20 years last year in head coach Shauna Green's first season in Champaign. That was part of a remarkable turnaround where Green took Illinois from 7-20 the year before she arrived to 22-10 in just one season.
Illinois returned most of the best players from last year's team and expectations were that the Illini would be a Top 25 team and maybe even compete for a conference title. That hasn't happened. Illinois sits just 13-12 and isn't particularly close to the NCAA Tournament bubble.
While the Illini's record is mediocre, they're still dangerous. They beat Indiana 86-66 at home on Monday. They also have road wins over Penn State and Michigan. Additionally, their record in games decided by single digits is an improbably poor 1-9. Flip a few of those results, and Illinois probably is an NCAA Tournament team.
This is a game that Iowa needs to win. The Hawks are down to a 2-seed now in ESPN's latest Bracketology, and a loss to a team outside the NCAA Tournament team could send them spiraling further.
All stats in this preview are from HerHoopStats.
Top Players
5'6" guard Makira Cook leads Illinois in scoring, averaging 14.8 ppg, 2.9 rpg, and 4.0 apg. She isn't a particularly efficient shooter, though, shooting just 41.7% on two-point shots and 29.9% on three-point attempts.
5'6" guard Genesis Bryant is nearly Cook's equal, averaging 14.1 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 3.4 apg, and 1.4 apg. She is a much better three-point shooter at 36.0%, but also struggles to make two-point attempts at 41.3%.
6'2'" forward Kendall Bostic, a Michigan State transfer, has grown into a very good post player. She's averaging 12.1 ppg and 10.0 rpg this season making 64.1% of her shots inside the arc.
Finally, 5'10" guard Adalia McKenzie averages 10.9 ppg, 4.9 rpg, and 1.4 spg. She's converted 52.8% of her two-point attempts, but doesn't really shoot much from three.
Play Style
Illinois averages 70.3 possessions per 40 minutes, which ranks 186th. That's right around the mid-point nationally, but on the slower end of Big Ten teams.
Offensively, the Illini average 74.6 points per game, which ranks 40th. The Illini shoot 50.7% on two-point attempts, 37th nationally. They're much worse from three-point range, hitting only 31.8% from, good for 134th. The Illini are extremely good free throw shooters, though, hitting 79.0% of their attempts at the stripe, 10th best nationally. Illinois also excels at avoiding turnovers, as they average just 11.8 giveaways per game, which ranks 7th. On the other hand, Illinois has an assist on just 51.1% of its baskets, which ranks 249th.
Defensively, Illinois surrenders 66.0 points per game, which ranks 209th. Opposing teams shoot well from two-point range against the Illini, making 47.9% of shots inside the arc. Teams have only shot 29.0% from behind the arc against the Illini, though. Illinois also isn't particularly good at generating steals (6.8 per game, 241st) or blocks (3.0 per game, 167th).
X-Factor
Production on the wings. In Iowa's losses to Kansas State, Nebraska, and Indiana here are the combined stat lines for Molly Davis and Gabbie Marshall:
Kansas State: 42 minutes, 8 points, 4 rebounds, 3 assists
Nebraska: 36 minutes, 2 points, 1 rebound, 1 assist
Indiana: 59 minutes, 6 points, 4 rebounds, 2 assists
Davis and Marshall's poor outings are far from the only reason that Iowa lost those games. Caitlin Clark had bad shooting games against Kansas State and Indiana. Kate Martin had minimal production against Kansas State and was 0-of-6 from three-point range against Indiana.
The problem, though, is that Davis and Marshall have had far too many quiet games. Marshall has scored seven points or more in just six of the 26 games she's played this season. Davis is a little better, scoring seven or more in ten of 27 games. Both players scored seven or more in blowout wins over Florida Gulf Coast, Rutgers, and athome against Indiana.
In most of Iowa's games, one of Davis or Marshall don't reach seven points. That leaves Clark, Martin, and Hannah Stuelke to carry a disproportionate load of the offense. If any of those three have off nights, Iowa is more vulnerable to an upset.
There are no easy answers to this issue. Marshall was instrumental in Iowa's post-season run last year. Davis scored 18 in Iowa's win over Indiana and 17 in the road win over Maryland. Turning to other options on the bench could mean losing out on those potential big games. But unless Iowa can get more consistent scoring from its wings, any game against an NCAA Tournament-caliber team could result in a frustrating loss.