WHO: #2 Ohio State Buckeyes (25-3 overall, 16-1 Big Ten)
WHEN: 12:00 PM CT (Sunday, March 3)
WHERE: Carver Hawkeye Arena (Iowa City, Iowa)
TV: FOX
RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network
ONLINE: https://www.foxsports.com/live
MOBILE: https://www.foxsports.com/live
FOLLOW: @IowaAwesome | @IowaWBB | @IowaonBTN
With 8:49 remaining in the fourth quarter of Iowa's January 21 game at Ohio State, the Buckeyes called timeout down 70-58. The game seemed on the verge of being over. With a victory, the Hawkeyes would take a commanding lead in the Big Ten standings, and would add another marquee victory to their resume.
Unfortunately for Iowa, that's not how things turned out. The Buckeyes finished the fourth quarter on a 25-13 run to force overtime, and ultimately won 100-92.
Since that game, the Buckeyes have won 10 straight. They are ranked #2 in the AP Poll, and were the #2 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament selection committee's Top 16 release Thursday night.
The Buckeyes might already be locked in as a 1-seed in the NCAA Tournament, and if they're not, a victory at Iowa would certainly cement that.
An Iowa victory, however, could make things interesting. The Hawkeyes were #7 overall in the committee's reveal. If the Hawkeyes add two victories over #2 Ohio State in a week, they would make a very strong case for a 1-seed themselves. And it would be tough to keep Ohio State over Iowa with the Hawkeyes capturing the season series and also playing better in the buildup to the NCAA Tournament.
All statistics from this preview are from HerHoopStats.
Record Watch
It's hard to believe that there are still records left for Caitlin Clark to break -- especially after her dazzling display earlier this week against Minnesota -- but there is still one notable mountain left to climb for Clark -- and she's very close to the summit. Clark needs just 18 points to break "Pistol" Pete Maravich's all-time NCAA scoring record for men's or women's basketball. That record is far from the most important aspect of this game, but it's sure to be a big part of the game, especially early on as she closes in on the record.
Top Players
If the only Ohio State game you watched was its first matchup with Iowa, you might think that 6'0" forward Cotie McMahon is easily the second best player in the conference. McMahon scored 33 points and grabbed 12 rebounds against Iowa in that game. She hasn't replicated that performance for most of the rest of the season. Overall, she's averaging 14.6 ppg, 6.5 rpg, and 1.2 spg while shooting 52.7% on two-point tries and 25.5% on long distance efforts. She's still very good, but not quite the dominant force she was that day in Columbus.
5'10" point guard Jacy Sheldon is one of the top two-way players in the country. Sheldon averages 18.1 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 3.6 apg, and 2.0 spg. She's shooting 57.9% on two-point attempts and 38.7% on three-point tries. Sheldon had 24 points and 7 rebounds against Iowa the first time around.
6'1" forward Taylor Thierry is quietly one of the best players in the Big Ten. She's averaging 11.4 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 1.6 apg, 1.8 spg while shooting 63.4% inside the arc and 46.2% from beyond the arc.
5'11" guard Celeste Taylor was a finalist last year for the Nasmith Women's Defensive Player of the Year Award at Duke. She was one of the best players in the transfer portal, and has certainly helped Ohio State to its spectacular season. She's averaging 10.3 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 3.4 apg, 2.3 spg, while shooting 47.6% on two-point field goals and 33.3% on three-point attempts. In the half court, Taylor will likely guard Caitlin Clark frequently.
6'4" post Rebeka Mikulasikova poses interesting matchup issues for Iowa. She's a solid scorer from two, but also spends plenty of time on the perimeter. She's averaging 9.2 ppg and 3.0 rpg, while shooting 53.8% on two-point attempts and 38.0% on three-point tries.
Senior Day
Sunday is also Senior Day for an incredible class of seniors for the Hawkeyes, as Caitlin Clark, Kate Martin, Gabbie Marshall, Molly Davis, and Sharon Goodman will be celebrated for their Iowa careers. It won't be the final chance for Iowa fans to see this quintet in action at Carver-Hawkeye arena -- Iowa is in line to host the opening rounds of the NCAA Tournament -- but it will be a clear chance to celebrate a group of players who have helped lead Iowa to unprecedented success.
This group of players has started an astounding 502 games combined for the Hawkeyes and guided Iowa to 100 wins since the 2020-21 season. They were the core of the Iowa teams that shared the Big Ten regular season championship in 2021-22, won back-to-back Big Ten Tournament championships in 2021-22 and 2022-23, and made the program's first-ever appearance in the NCAA Championship Game last year.
This senior class will be sorely missed and Sunday will be an opportunity to celebrate their excellent accomplishments.
READ MORE: Caitlin Clark Declares for 2024 WNBA Draft
READ MORE: Sharon Goodman Leaving Iowa for Nursing School After Season
Play Style
Ohio State averages 74.1 possessions per 40 minutes, which ranks 57th nationally. A key factor in the Buckeyes' quick pace is their full court press. The Buckeyes generally do whatever they can to force turnovers and get quick buckets. Thanks largely to that press, they've been able to force average of 21.2 turnovers per game.
That said, Ohio State stopped pressing Iowa early in the first game this season due to ineffectiveness. Clark is one of the best passers in college basketball history, and between her and Molly Davis, teams press the Hawkeyes at their peril.
Offensively, Ohio State averages 80.6 points per game, which ranks 15th nationally. The Buckeyes have been shooting 53.5% on two-point attempts (16th) and 35.4% on three-point field goals (41st). One weakness to the Buckeye offense is offensive rebounding. They only grab 28.8% of available offensive rebounds, which ranks 242nd.
Defensively, Ohio State surrenders 62.6 points per game, which ranks 129th. Buckeye opponents shoot much better on two-point tries (45.8%) than three-point attempts (29.3%). The Buckeyes also don't rebound particularly well on the defensive end. They grab 70.2% of defensive rebounds, which ranks 132nd.
X-Factor
Defense. In the fourth quarter and overtime of the first matchup, Ohio State scored on most of its possessions. Iowa couldn't stop McMahon from driving to the basket, and if she did miss a shot around the rim she usually got a foul call. The Buckeyes were also lights out from deep, shooting 11-of-22 from three-point range in the game.
Last year in Iowa's game at Ohio State, the Hawkeyes beat the Buckeyes largely because of defense. The Hawks utilized their triangle-and-two for a large portion of that game and took away Ohio State's shooters. Without a big three-point threat, the Buckeyes simply couldn't keep pace.
If Iowa can find a way to slow down Ohio State's offense, the Hawkeyes has a chance for a statement victory heading to the Big Ten Tournament. If not, Clark and the offense will need to be nearly perfect to win a shootout.