Five Things We're Watching: Iowa vs Iowa State

What will be some of the keys to the game when Iowa takes on Iowa State in the 70th iteration of the Cy-Hawk series? Here are a few things we're going to be focused on in Ames on Saturday.

The last time that Iowa turned the ball over in Ames? 2015. Jordan Canzeri fumbled the ball on the Iowa State 7-yard line, with Iowa driving for a go-ahead touchdown in the fourth quarter. No harm, no foul: the Hawkeye defense forced a punt on the ensuing Iowa State possession, before the offense scored touchdowns on its next two possessions, and the defense forced turnovers on Iowa State's subsequent possessions.

That 2015 victory kicked off a 6-game winning streak for the Hawkeyes in the Cy-Hawk series, the longest winning streak for either team since Iowa won 15 in a row in the '80s and '90s.

One of the key underlying factors in that unbroken string of Iowa success? Ball security.

Iowa gave up zero turnovers in the next five Cy-Hawk games, and the Hawkeyes racked up a +9 turnover margin in those games. The turnover-free streak ended last season -- as did the Iowa winning streak. Turnover margin was a push last year; both teams had three turnovers, including a fumble near the goal line. (Iowa State also threw an interception in the end zone to kill another potential scoring drive.)

The Hawkeyes may not need to be perfect in the turnover department on Saturday -- but they almost certainly need to post a positive turnover margin. Since 2014, Iowa is just 7-21 in games when they have a negative turnover margin, and over half of those wins came against mid-major (Wyoming, Ball State) or FCS (South Dakota State, Illinois State) opponents.

Whichever defense on Saturday is able to force the offense into the most errors will be a heavy favorite to claim the Cy-Hawk Trophy at the end of the game.

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It looks like this could be a recurring item for the entire season -- Cade McNamara's quad injury isn't likely to fully heal without prolonged rest and that will be hard to come by during the football season. Given that, the question may become how well McNamara is able to manage his pain and discomfort.

Even with his injury, McNamara looked pretty good in the pocket against Utah State. Iowa's pass protection held up pretty well, which enabled McNamara to work through his progressions and fire off passes from a solid base more often than not. A similar effort from Cade on Saturday would likely go a long way toward Iowa reclaiming the Cy-Hawk Trophy.

But a lot of that will depend on...

There was cautious optimism about the potential for the Iowa offensive line heading into the 2023 season -- the Hawkeyes had added some experienced options via the transfer portal in Rusty Feth and Daijon Parker, and returning players like Connor Colby and Logan Jones were another year older, wiser and better-versed in Iowa's blocking schemes. Plus, the overall health of the offensive line seemed strong after several members of that unit battled injuries last season.

Unfortunately, the Iowa offensive line's 2023 debut against Utah State was not quite the resounding success most had hoped for.

While the pass protection held up well overall for the Hawkeyes, run blocking was a decided challenge. Iowa posted a paltry 2.44 yards per carry average against the Aggies and settled for just 88 total rushing yards. Utah State was unusually aggressive in stacking the box and using unconventional looks to smother the Iowa run game, but the Hawkeyes are likely to see more of that until they prove that the passing attack is formidable enough (and consistent enough) to force opponents to commit more defenders to pass coverage.

As Kirk Ferentz mentioned after the Utah State game, here's a familiar cliche that teams make the most improvement during the season between Weeks 1 and 2; Iowa very much needs that to be true for the offensive line this season. If the Hawkeyes up front aren't able to open a few more holes for Kaleb Johnson and Leshon Williams or keep Cade clean in the pocket, then it could be very difficult for the Iowa offense to get any traction in this game.

Phil Parker used a pretty vanilla defensive scheme in Week 1 -- the gameplan was all about the basics: denying big plays, defenders staying in front of Utah State and tackling well, and playing strong assignment football. Iowa's defenders handled that gameplan with aplomb against Utah State, at least until the Iowa second-teamers came in and struggled to get stops against the Aggies in the last half of the fourth quarter.

Here's guessing that Parker will have something a bit less vanilla in store for the Iowa State offense on Saturday -- especially with the Cyclones relying on a pair of freshmen quarterbacks (redshirt frosh Rocco Becht and true frosh JJ Kohl) to run the offense. They're likely to see more blitzes and pressure attempts from the Iowa defense than they did from UNI last week. Forcing those extremely young quarterbacks into some bad decisions and giveaways could make the difference in this game.

Outside of the 2021 contest (which featured a whopping 44 combined points), the Cy-Hawk game hasn't cracked 40 points since the wild 44-41 overtime thriller in 2017. Matt Campbell has built Iowa State in an image very familiar to Iowa fans, one defined by stout defense. Given that Iowa's offense wasn't firing on all cylinders in Week 1 and that Iowa State's offense is led by some very inexperienced players, a low-scoring game seems likely Saturday.

A defensive struggle is likely to put added emphasis on special teams. Several of Iowa's best players -- Tory Taylor, Cooper DeJean, Kaleb Johnson -- are active on special teams; perhaps one of them is able to produce a difference-making play in that area on Saturday. Maybe DeJean or Johnson is able to break a long return. Or maybe a Taylor punt produces a gaffe like the infamous one at the end of the 2019 game. Regardless, a big play on special teams may be what it takes to swing the outcome on Saturday.