IOWA CITY — Senior Iowa guard Gabbie Marshall knew Sydney Affolter's game-changing and-1 layup was coming Monday night: "I could see it in her eyes."

Affolter's critical three-point play gave Iowa a 55-52 lead it would not relinquish, as the Hawkeyes prevailed 64-54 over West Virginia on Monday night in Round 2 of the 2024 NCAA Tournament.

With two and a half minutes remaining in regulation, Iowa and West Virginia were tied at 52, and the Mountaineers had the ball with a shot to take their first lead since midway through the first quarter. Iowa's March Madness dreams were suddenly in peril, and West Virginia was ready to make the biggest splash of the NCAA Tournament.

The Carver faithful rose to their feet to will the Hawkeyes to a defensive stop, but the tension in the arena was palpable. Iowa had been in a similar situation just two years ago -- and things hadn't worked out for the Hawkeyes then. Now everyone in the building wondered if West Virginia would become the next Creighton.

With 2:12 to play, West Virginia's J.J. Quinerly rose to shoot a three that could rip the hearts out of the 14,000 Iowa fans around her. For a moment, she looked just like Lauren Jensen had when she drained a dagger 3-pointer for Creighton in 2022. Then Marshall leaped in to save the day.

At the last possible moment, Marshall got a finger on the shot, and the ball fell harmlessly into the waiting hands of Sydney Affolter.

Marshall didn't have to guess what would come next. As she said after the game, she could see it in Affolter's eyes. Affolter took the ball into the front court and attacked the basket to her left. She got a shot up through contact, finished the bucket, and earned a crucial foul.

The rest, as they say, is history. Affolter hit the free throw, Iowa strung together a few defensive stops, and closed out the win to advance to the Sweet 16. This is the breakdown of those critical moments.

On first watch, Marshall's block almost seems perfect. Give the shooter time to set and take a second. Swoop in at the last moment to stuff the shot and ensure that West Virginia gets a shot clock violation or turnover.

It wasn't perfect. It was born out of a mistake. "We were in a zone and I was a little late on my rotation," Marshall said. "That's kind of a common theme lately."

Marshall was referring to her huge block late in the Big Ten Tournament final against Nebraska. She was late on that rotation too, and it put her in the perfect position to stuff the shot and put that game on ice.

This time, though, Marshall's crucial block only preserved the tie. Iowa still needed more heroics. Enter: Sydney Affolter, the player who fearlessly stepped into Iowa's starting lineup when Molly Davis went down n the regular season finale, then earned Big Ten All-Tournament team honors.

"I could see it in her eyes that she was taking it all the way to the hole," Marshall said of Affolter after she got the ball in her hands.

Affolter knew it as well.

"After I crossed half court she was just all up in my space," Affolter said. "I knew I could beat her off the bounce."

Affolter did just that. She spun just below the beak on Iowa's tigerhawk logo, got the ball in her left hand, and attacked. Affolter beat Kyah Watson off the dribble, ignored Caitlin Clark calling for the ball, and went to the basket. Just as Affolter went up for a layup with her left hand, she was bumped and drew a foul, though it didn't impact the shot going in. She finished the and-1 opportunity, and gave Iowa a 55-52 lead.

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Still, the game wasn't finished. Iowa had spent the entire game switching between a two-three zone and a triangle-and-two junk defense. The triangle-and-two in particular worked wonders in the first half. Iowa switched to that look after going down 11-5 and the Hawks were able to close the first quarter on a 15-4 run. West Virginia wasn't able to get anything going with its two best scorers locked down.

The second quarter didn't go much better. West Virginia scored just nine points in the quarter, and were still confounded by the junk defense. The Mountaineers' leading shot-taker in the first half was Jayla Hemingway with 10 attempts. Hemingway entered this game averaging just 4.7 shots per game.

Then after halftime, Iowa changed back to its two-three zone.

"Just changing it up," Kate Martin said after the game when asked about the switch. "They probably drew up some plays to break our triangle [at halftime].

Iowa's most consequential defensive change didn't come after halftime, though. It came in the final minutes of the game.

"We were in zone the whole game, then with a couple minutes left we went to man," Martin said.

The last-minute switch did wonders.

"It threw them off," Clark said. "They didn't know exactly what to run. We were going to switch every single ball screen because they started to set a lot of ball screens. We didn't want to give up open threes. Early in the game, that's what we were going to live with. You don't want to give up threes in late-game situations."

The change worked. West Virginia scored just two points in the final two minutes, and those points came only after Iowa's lead had ballooned to eight.

While Iowa's defense was crucial to closing out the win, Iowa still needed to score to secure the victory. In the final two minutes, Iowa got crucial points from Hannah Stuelke.

With around a minute to play, Stuelke went to the free throw line with Iowa's lead at just three. It's no secret that Stuelke and the free throw line haven't exactly seen eye to eye. Stuelke shot just 46% at the line last season, and while that's improved this season, she's still converted just 62% of her attempts at the line this year.

In the biggest moment of her basketball life to date, Stuelke came through. She went one of two at the line, giving Iowa a crucial four-point, two-possession lead. Stuelke went back to the line with 34 seconds left in the game and Iowa up six. She made both free throws on that trip. Her two free throws gave Iowa an eight-point lead and the game was finally, mercifully, over.

"That's tough to do, as somebody who's really worked on her free-throw shooting," Clark said after the game. She knew how big it was for Stuelke in particular to come through in that moment with that pressure.

Iowa was pushed to the brink by a West Virginia team that was better than its 8-seed might have suggested. In the end, it was three players not named Caitlin Clark who came through with some of the biggest plays of the game when the Hawkeyes needed them the most.

Clark was still the catalyst for Iowa, of course. She had 32 points -- half of Iowa's total for the game -- and hit big free throws herself late in the game. But one player can't do everything. Tonight, when the pressure was at its highest, her teammates were there. Together, they can celebrate a third trip to the Sweet Sixteen in the past four seasons -- and continue their quest to win a first-ever women's basketball national championship for Iowa.