Prior to the start of the season, the 2024 iteration of the Iowa Hawkeyes had some big-time goals: namely, reaching the Big Ten Championship game in Indianapolis and the College Football Playoff.
"Every week is important and every win counts," said team co-captain and All-American linebacker Jay Higgins at Big Ten Media Days in July. "If we get to the end of the year and we win the games we deserve to win, I think we can definitely be a part of those 12 teams."
Following Michigan State's 32-20 upset win over Iowa on Saturday, those high hopes have effectively been dashed.
With the elimination of divisions in the Big Ten and the cutoff for the CFP presumably set at two losses max, it's going to be nearly impossible for the Hawkeyes to reach any of their preseason expectations.
To be quite frank, just seven games into the fall and four games into their Big Ten schedule, the 2024 Iowa football program has earned itself a new label: disappointing. Fans have every right to be upset.
2024 was supposed to be a year where the Hawkeyes found themselves amongst the elite company of college football for Kirk Ferentz's team, and for a variety of reasons.
Phil Parker's defense returned eight of its 11 starters from the 2023 defense that ranked fourth in the country, Beth Goetz removed Brian Ferentz as offensive coordinator after several years of subpar performances, and the Hawkeyes were set to get Cade McNamara back from injury to lead Tim Lester's new-look offense to the promised land.
Obviously, those factors haven't come together and resulted in the success on the field that the Hawkeyes had hoped for -- in fact, it's practically been the opposite.
In the Cy-Hawk battle, the Hawkeyes' veteran-laden defensive backfield was crushed in the second half to blow a late third-quarter 19-7 lead — including a deep ball where Xavier Nwankpa got caught flat-footed and Iowa State scored on a 75-yard bomb. That, and a 30-yard pass that beat Sebastian Castro and set up the game-winning, 54-yard field goal for ISU.
Though the ISU loss felt like a fluke performance by the normally stout Hawkeye pass defense, in retrospect it seems more like the proverbial canary in the coal mine.
Against Ohio State, the Hawkeyes were completely outmatched from the get-go, and they blew the opportunity to get back in the game after just a 7-0 deficit at halftime. Behind reluctance to go for it on 4th-and-1 in OSU territory, three second-half turnovers by McNamara and the sheer dominance the Buckeyes have shown against lesser foes this season, Iowa was flattened 35-7 in Columbus.
At Michigan State, the Hawkeyes simply didn't look themselves, especially on defense. Allowing 468 yards and 32 points to an offense under a first-year head coach and a first-year, turnover prone quarterback isn't something they do -- but they did it on Saturday. Additionally, according to PFF, the Hawkeyes missed 19 tackles on the night, another atypical stat.
Additionally, Kaleb Johnson -- Iowa's best option on offense, couldn't get going against the Buckeyes or Spartans, missing 100 yards rushing in both contests. He may have a stacked box, a complete lack of a downfield passing game and a 2-to-1 time of possession ratio against MSU to thank for that.
Though the defense struggled and showed mishaps in each contest, there's been but one commonality in each of the three losses: McNamara's inconsistency.
Between Iowa's three losses, the former CFP-quarterback has completed 38-of-72 passes (52.7%) for 347 yards and a touchdown. He's also thrown four interceptions an given up two fumbles to opposing defenses.
For a head coach and a program that consistently claims it wants a quarterback that won't give the ball away, that's exactly what McNamara has continually done. His mobility, footwork, and downfield accuracy are simply well below the standards of a sixth-year, Power 4 quarterback, and the Iowa offense continues to struggle as a result.
But, by God, Ferentz won't abandon the former Wolverine signal-caller -- even for that other quarterback on the roster that has started, won games and played relatively well at the Big Ten level. Not to mention, the guy that has played in limited situations this season and has had success -- speaking of Brendan Sullivan, of course.
Through appearances in six games, the former Northwestern starter has completed 2 of 2 passes for 14 yards and a touchdown, while adding nine carries for 36 yards and two scores on the ground. These stats have come largely in goal-line situations, so neither the average yardage nor frequency of scores should be expected to translate to full-time duty, but Sullivan has undeniably done his job — and well — when called upon to play under center for the Hawkeyes.
"[There was] no real discussion of making a switch," Ferentz said following the MSU loss on Saturday. "We'll go back to work tomorrow, look at the film and see what it looks like. And then just try to proceed forward."
What "proceeding forward" will look like for the remainder of the season is obviously to be determined. Whether the defense can step up and play at the level of Parker's groups of yesteryear, whether Johnson can plow over teams again like he was doing on a regular basis, or whether the staff decides to put in a more dynamic QB are all open questions with massive implications for the rest of the season.
But with three losses and a weak remaining the schedule, it appears to be near-impossible for the Hawkeyes to reach their loftier preseason goals — and concurrent fan expectations.
No matter how it looks, the ceiling for the Hawkeyes has dropped significantly. The high hopes of an outstanding season have plummeted back to earth. And yes, fans who have invested their time, energy and — in many cases — hard-earned dollars, have every right to be disappointed with the results thus far.
