Assessing a tight Big Ten race
The Big Ten baseball season has hit the home stretch, with just three weeks of games remaining. The top teams are trying to add some last-minute wins to strengthen their NCAA Tournament resumes and avoid a crippling series loss. The top four teams are separated by just three games, so a lot of shuffling could and likely will happen.
1) Indiana (23-10) RPI: 85
Remaining Games: at Michigan (3) vs Illinois (1) vs Nebraska (2) vs Ohio St (2) at Maryland (3)
While the Hoosiers currently lead the Big Ten, they easily have the toughest road remaining, with ten games vs top 6 teams remaining. Indiana will need to hope that their pitching stays at an elite level because a 7-4 finish (30-14) overall could be enough for the Big Ten Title.
2) Nebraska (23-11) RPI: 67
Remaining Games: vs Northwestern (3) at Indiana (2) vs Ohio St (2) vs Michigan (3)
Nebraska has struggled over their last ten, going 5-5, which has allowed Indiana to take over the top spot. The Cornhuskers got swept by Rutgers, but responded winning three out of four last weekend. If the Huskers can right the ship, a 7-3 finish could clinch a Big Ten Title.
3) Michigan (23-12) RPI: 104
Remaining Games: vs Indiana (3) vs Maryland (3) at Nebraska (3)
The Wolverines are really the wildcard team in my opinion. They have stumbled a bit as of late going 5-5 over their last ten games vs Rutgers/Illinois/MSU, so where they finish is really a mystery. They have a tough last three series, so this could be the team that Iowa or Maryland can catch if they can put together a strong finish.
4) Iowa (21-14) RPI: 55
Remaining Games: vs Illinois (3) at Northwestern (3) at Michigan State (3)
The Hawkeyes have the easiest remaining schedule of the top 6 by far, which gives them the best shot to move up standings if a team ahead of them falters. In terms of getting an NCAA at-large bid, I would think three series wins would do the job (27-17 overall), but a sweep mixed in would make Selection Monday less stressful.
5) Maryland (21-14) RPI: 88
Remaining Games: vs Purdue (3) at Michigan (3) vs Indiana (3)
The Terps are battling the Hawkeyes for what is perceived to be the golden ticket #4 spot in the Big Ten. Maryland has a tougher slate and lost three of four vs Iowa, so the pressure is squarely on them to produce the last three weeks. My guess is that the Terps must win a series vs Michigan or Indiana and can’t drop a game to Purdue.
6) Ohio State (17-14) RPI: 61
Remaining Games: at Purdue (1) vs Mich St (3) vs Nebraska (2) at Indiana (2) vs Northwestern (3)
The Buckeyes got a little unlucky last week, as Minnesota had covid issues, so they could not play their three-games series, thus robbing Ohio State of an almost certain sweep. They are not out of NCAA contention and even have some favorable matchups remaining, but will likely have to go 9-2 the rest of the way to make a case.
Final Thoughts
My personal opinion is that the Big Ten Title winner will finish with 29 wins, but that could bring in to play a couple of teams for a potential tie. If a team wants to win the conference outright, I believe 30-14 would be the golden record to hit. As for the Big Ten and the NCAA Tournament, I am becoming more and more confident that four teams will make the tournament. The battle for position between Iowa, Maryland and Ohio State will be fun to watch over the last three weeks.