Big Ten Midseason Roundup
The Big Ten Baseball season has reached the halfway point, with the conclusion of last weekend’s games, meaning it is time to take a look at the top teams in the conference and their chances to make an NCAA Tournament appearance.
Kendall Rogers of D1Baseball and Teddy Cahill of Baseball America dropped by and provided their thoughts on the postseason baseball outlook for the Big Ten.
Quotes from Coach Heller on the Big Ten
“There are no bad teams in our league. That’s a fact…. The league is as loaded and as stacked as it’s ever been and the amount of pitching in particular is amazing.”
“You hate the fact that were not playing non-conference…. I think our league would be up with the top RPI leagues in the country. That’s how good I think it is.”
The Top 6
Nebraska Cornhuskers (15-6)
The Cornhuskers have been the surprise of the Big Ten, as they did not make the preseason Top 6. They have five batters hitting over .500, including Jaxon Hallmark at .370. They also have a ton of power up and down the order with 32 home runs by 12 players, led by Cam Chick with six. The Huskers pitching has been really good as well with Cade Povich, Shay Schanaman and Chance Hroch combining for an 8-1 record, while striking out 102 and walking just 26. Spencer Schwellenbach has been amazing in 8 relief innings, allowing just six hits and striking out 13.
Michigan Wolverines (15-7)
The preseason favorite is right in the mix at the halfway point of the season. Christian Molfetta had a big series vs Iowa and is batting .349, with a .446 OBP on the season. Jimmy Obertop has brought the power hitting eight home runs for the Wolverines. Starting pitcher Steven Hajjar has been solid on the mound posting a 2.80 ERA and a 4-1 strikeout to walk ratio. However, Blake Beers has been disappointing in five starts, walking 16 in 18 innings and posting a 7.11 ERA.
Indiana Hoosiers (13-7)
My preseason pick to win the conference is near the top at the halfway point of the season, as well. The offense has been a little disappointing, as they are 9th in the Big Ten in batting average, including a .246 and 30 strikeout start from Jordan Fucci. Cole Barr leads the team batting .338 and total bases at 41. The starting pitching has been really solid led by McCade Brown and Tommy Sommer, who are a combined 7-3 with 95 strikeouts to 39 walks. Nathan Stahl has been solid out of the bullpen, as well. The pitching staff is 1st in the nation in hits allowed per 9 innings and 5th in team ERA. If the Hoosiers can start hitting, they will have a shot at the conference title.
Ohio State Buckeyes (13-9)
Statistically you would be shocked to hear that Ohio State sits at 13-9 and recently swept a series vs Indiana. They rank 10th in hits and last in the Big Ten in batting average, with just Kade Kern (.333) batting over .295. The starting pitching, statistically, has not been great with all four posting ERAs above 4.00. Seth Lonsway is coming off his best performance all season, striking out 17 vs Indiana and if he gets hot, he is impossible to hit. Patrick Murphy, TJ Brock and Bayden Root have been solid out of the bullpen. This team could really go either way from here. If their luck runs out and the statistics hold, they could fall quickly, but if the hitting turns around, they could make a run at the top of the conference.
Iowa Hawkeyes (12-9)
Iowa had a slow start to the season, but has caught fire as of late to turn a 4-8 record into 12-9. Ben Norman has been the senior leader we expected, hitting at a blistering .377 since his 0/15 start and he leads the team with seven home runs. Peyton Williams is has gotten fully healthy and the power has come with, as he is up to five home runs on the season and has evened his strikeout to walk ratio at 17-17. The pitching and fielding have really been the things to turn around on this hot streak, as Drew Irvine, Cam Baumann and Duncan Davitt have had quality starts behind ace Trenton Wallace. The bullpen has found consistency in Ben Probst, Dylan Nedved and Trace Hoffman, but its up and down with everyone else. The good news is that Iowa has racked up five wins vs teams above them in the conference, so the resume to this point is solid. The four-games series vs Rutgers this weekend will be huge.
Rutgers Scarlet Knights (11-9)
Sometimes Rutgers is the forgotten about team because of their location, but this is a good ball club tucked away in Piscataway. They have plenty of power in their bats, blasting 31 home runs, which is a tie for 3rd in the conference. Chris Brito, Jordan Sweeney and Ryan Lasko combine for 22 of those. Another good bat is Mike Nyisztor, who is batting .370, with a .500 OBP, but has only started 12 games. The starting pitching staff is underrated, with three guys that all know how to limit walks. Harry Rutkowski, Ben Wereski and Brent Teller have combined to strike out 87 batters, while walking just 25 over 96.2 innings. Nate McLain and Kyle Muller have been good out of the bullpen. Iowa will have a tough test coming up this weekend.
Postseason Outlook
Nebraska, Indiana and Michigan lead the way at the halfway point…. Who do you think wins the Big Ten and gets the automatic NCAA Tournament bid?
Kendall: I think you could go with either of those three teams to win the league, and I think the league winner ends up hosting — basically whomever leads the league on May 10 will be the team that will host. Remember that hosts are announced on May 10 — so the next couple of weeks are HUGE in that regard. As for the automatic bid — it’s really anyone’s game.
Teddy: Michigan was my preseason pick and I don't yet feel the need to change that.
How many teams from the Big Ten will get an at-large bid to the tournament?
Kendall: It’s really hard to say because of the iffy RPIs, but I think with the Big Ten, what the regional advisory committee says will have a HUGE bearing on what happens at the end of the season. As for the # of teams, I put the sweet spot at this point at four teams. There could be a fifth, but four teams seems about right at the moment.
Teddy: Likely three, but maybe four. The conference has maxed out at five in the past, but without the possibility of a team outside the NCAA Tournament picture winning the auto bid in the Big Ten Tournament, like Ohio State did two years ago, and any non-conference games to bulk up a resume, it seems unlikely the conference would get five bids.
My Take: I think the Big Ten can absolutely be a five-bid league, but the top 5-6 teams need to separate themselves from the bottom half of the conference by a couple of games to show there is a clear tournament level group. Series vs teams like Michigan State, Northwestern and Maryland will be big for the top of the conference to build that cushion between the top and the bottom. Also, will somewhat depend on how other “bubble” teams perform outside of the Big Ten.
What are your thoughts on the Iowa Hawkeyes at this point in the season?
Kendall: I love the front-end of the weekend rotation, and I like the pieces atop the lineup, but they just need to be more consistent top to bottom both on the mound and at the plate. I think this is a team that could cause some issues in the postseason — if it can just make it.
Teddy: I think Iowa has played maybe the toughest schedule in the Big Ten to this point, which makes its 12-9 record a bit more impressive. Trenton Wallace has been really good at the front of the rotation and Peyton Williams and Ben Norman are exciting in the lineup. The offense as a whole hasn't been great to this point, but I think it'll find more success in the second half. The pitching staff has done a good job of supporting the lineup to this point and looks to have some solid depth.
Iowa gets an NCAA Tournament at-large bid if….
Kendall: If it continues at the current pace is on, continues to be more consistent and finishes in the top four in the Big Ten. If those three things happen, they’ll be a postseason team in my opinion. Iowa is in as good of shape as anyone else near the top of the league standings. It’s only a couple of games behind Nebraska with a comparable RPI. So, the Hawkeyes are within striking distance.
Teddy: Finish in third place or better. Anything else, especially having gone 1-3 against Michigan and 2-3 against Nebraska, which look to be the two best teams in the conference, will probably end up cutting things close. The series at Indiana looms large. Iowa could really use a series win there to add a distinguishing result to its resume.
