#2 IOWA HAWKEYES (22-7) (14-4) vs #5 INDIANA HOOSIERS (22-7) (11-5)
INFO: 3:00pm on ESPN2
The Hawkeyes and Hoosiers will meet on the hardwood for the third time in just two weeks, as this one will be for the Big Ten Tournament trophy. Iowa started their six-game winning streak with back-to-back victories against Indiana back in mid-February.
The Hawkeyes defeated #6 seed Nebraska in their semifinal matchup by a final score of 83-66, with Caitlin Clark pouring on 41 points on 13/27 shooting. She bounced back from seven first half turnovers and turned in another impressive performance. Monika Czinano added 22 points on 9/11 shooting, while Kate Martin had eight points and 11 rebounds. Iowa’s 3pt defense was ultimately the deciding factor, as they held Nebraska to 3/26 (11%) from behind the arc.
The Hoosiers defeated the top seed Ohio State Buckeyes in their semifinal matchup and built their lead as high as 13 in their 70-62 victory. Indiana got very balanced scoring, with all five starters scoring in double figures, including 16 from Nicole Cardano-Hillary and 15 from Ali Patberg. It will be their fourth game in four days, as they did not get the double-bye to the quarterfinal round.
WHAT’S AT STAKE
- A Big Ten Tournament Championship
- The first Iowa team to ever win both the regular season and tournament title in the same season
- A potential #3 seed in the NCAA Tournament (Projected a #3 by Charlie Creme)
THE NUMBER – OFFENSE
INDIANA: 72.0 points (46th), 45.2% FG (18th), 33.6% 3pt (62nd), 74.7% FT (64th), 36.3 rebounds (195th), 14.2 assists (98th), 13.2 TO (38th)
IOWA: 84.9 points (2nd), 50.5% FG (1st), 35.6% 3pt (28th), 84.2% FT (1st), 38.6 rebounds (99th), 19.4 assists (3rd), 15.0 TO (131st)
THE NUMBERS – DEFENSE
INDIANA: 61.5 points (130th), 39.8% FG (169th), 30.3% 3pt (154th), +1.8 rebounding margin (124th), 15.3 TO (216th)
IOWA: 71.0 points (309th), 39.4% FG (151st), 30.9% 3pt (193rd), +3.9 rebounding margin (84th), 14.1 TO (290th)
PROJECTED STARTERS
INDIANA
G Grace Berger – 16.2 points, 6.2 rebounds, 4.9 assists, 44.6% FG
G Nicole Cardano-Hillary – 11.5 points, 5.0 rebounds, 37.4% 3pt, 40.5% FG
G Ali Patberg – 12.0 points, 3.4 rebounds, 3.4 assists 34.0% 3pt, 42.0% FG
G Chloe Moore-McNeil – 5.4 points, 3.0 rebounds, 42.6% FG
F Mackenzie Holmes – 15.7 points, 7.0 rebounds, 59.6% FG
BENCH
F Aleksa Gulbe – 12.1 points, 6.3 rebounds, 43.3% FG
F Kiandra Brown – 3.1 points, 3.4 rebounds, 58.2% FG
IOWA
PG Caitlin Clark – 27.7 points, 8.1 rebounds, 8.1 assists, 33.9% 3pt, 45.9% FG
G Kate Martin – 7.1 points, 4.9 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 46.3% FG
G Gabbie Marshall – 6.8 points, 39.4% 3pt – best defender
F McKenna Warnock – 11.5 points, 6.6 rebounds, 43.2% 3pt, 52.4% FG
C Monika Czinano – 20.8 points, 6.0 rebounds, 67.6% FG
BREAKDOWN
Indiana has been impressive so far in the Big Ten Tournament, defeating #13 Rutgers, #4 Maryland and #1 Ohio State by an average of 10.3 points per game. They have been carried by their three point defense, as they have held their opponents to a freezing cold 6/43 (13.9%).
The Hawkeyes six-game winning streak started with back-to-back wins vs Indiana. They won the rebounding battle in both games and held the Hoosiers to just 18 offensive rebounds between the two games. Monika Czinano was impressive in both games, while McKenna Warnock combined for 37 points on 5/8 shooting behind the arc.
Czinano has put together one of the best six game stretches you are going to see from an efficiency standpoint. Over her last six games, she has scored 138 points on 59/75 (78.7%), while grabbing 32 rebounds. Iowa racked up 90 points in the paint vs the Hoosiers in two meetings, so Czinano will be a huge factor in the paint today.
Caitlin Clark and Monika Czinano are great for sure, but the Hawkeyes are going to need someone to step up behind them if they want to win a second trophy in a week. Kate Martin has stepped up, with 23 points, 16 rebounds and 11 assists in the last two games. Martin has stepped up as a captain, a veteran and a contributor on the court. She will be needed in today’s game.
“Her level-headedness, her defense, she ran our offense to what we were trying to accomplish, she passed the ball well. Kate’s always been the glue and people overlook Kate,” said Bluder after the Northwestern win. “She holds this team together. She is our captain, our leader, somebody we look to and I’m really proud of Kate.”
Warnock has cooled off since the Indiana games and has scored just nine points over the last three games. She has been named the “X-Factor” on the team by Caitlin Clark and the Hawkeyes will be looking for a big game from her in the biggest game of the season. Her rebounding and 3pt shooting will be needed if Iowa wants to capture a victory.
Gabbie Marshall has been in a bit of shooting slump as of late, shooting just 4/19 (21.1%) from behind the arc. They will need her on the defensive end and hope she can be a factor on the offensive end. Off the bench, Kylie Feuerbach, Tomi Taiwo and Addison O’Grady all have their roles and will need to step up. O’Grady had four blocks and three rebounds vs Nebraska.
Switching sides, the Hoosiers are starting to once again see the play of Mackenzie Holmes that they saw earlier in the season. Holmes returned to the starting lineup vs Iowa, after missing a good portion of time due to injury, but had just 21 points on 8/18 shooting. Since those two games, Holmes has started to become a bigger factor in games and scored 17 points in their quarterfinal win against Maryland.
“I do think (Mackenzie) Holmes has gotten healthier over the last week,” said Coach Bluder. “I think she’s player much stronger and much more confidently than the first time (we played them). Even from first time to second time, I thought she looked better, and I think she’s looked better in this tournament.”
The Hoosiers can come at you a lot of different ways, but their guards Grace Berger and Ali Patberg are special talents. Patberg is a seventh-year senior and much like Kate Martin, she brings veteran leadership to the team. She had 19 points against Rutgers and 15 against Ohio State yesterday.
Grace Berger is the best player on Indiana, leading the team in points and assists, while her 162 defensive rebounds leads the team. Berger is similar to Caitlin Clark in the fact that she is going to get her points, no matter how you defend her. She has scored in double figures in 26 of their 29 games and has eclipsed 20 points, seven times.
Nicole Cardano-Hillary is the Hoosiers best defender, while Chloe Moore-McNeil has come on late in the season, logging four of her seven double figure scoring games in the last six games. Aleksa Gulbe could be in the starting lineup instead of Moore-McNeil. She is averaging 12.1 points per game and had 22 points in Bloomington against the Hawkeyes.
The Hoosiers have been playing great basketball as of late and have made a run as the #5 seed, after losing four of five coming into the tournament. The Hawkeyes, as always, must limit the offensive boards for Indiana, while limiting turnovers. Caitlin Clark has turned it over quite a bit in the first half as of late and she will need to settle in quickly tomorrow to avoid a slow start.
“I think she’s a little geeked to start out. She’s just a little hyper,” said Bluder. “I have to calm her down before the game and try to slow her down. I think she had seven turnovers in the first half, which is way too many…Once she settles down, she’s fine. We just need to get her to settle down a little quicker.”
Indiana has been able to get W’s despite just 23 second chance points in the last three games. They had 24 second chance points on ten offensive boards vs Iowa in Bloomington, but the big reason they have been able to get it done this weekend is their 3pt defense. Marshall, Warnock and Clark will have their hands full trying to get open and when they do get an open shot, they have to knock it down.
It's hard to beat a team three times in a season, let alone three times in 15 days and the Hoosiers are playing some of their best basketball of the season. On the other hand, Iowa is playing their best basketball as well and have gotten incredible play out of Monika Czinano. Caitlin Clark has shot the ball from behind the arc very well over the last four games (56.8%) and if that continues tomorrow, Iowa will have a great shot to win. Picking the Hoosiers would be a very reasonable pick, but the Hawkeyes seem to be determined to win their second trophy in a week span.
As Caitlin said on Sunday, “Why not win two Big Ten titles?”
You don’t bet against Lisa Bluder, Caitlin Clark and the Hawkeyes. Iowa 78 Indiana 71
