Big Ten Tournament Preview: Penn State

With the regular season in the rearview mirror, it is time to switch gears to postseason baseball. The Hawkeyes and Nittany Lions get to kick off the festivities in Omaha with the 9:00am game on Wednesday. Iowa comes to Omaha with a 33-17 record, including a sweep of Indiana last weekend to build some momentum. The Nittany Lions come in with a 25-27 record, but lost five of six to end the regular season, including a sweep loss to Illinois last weekend.

With the Hawkeyes sitting on the NCAA Tournament bubble, any win they can pickup this week will help them bolster their resume ahead of Selection Monday. A win against Penn State will put them on the right side of the bracket and set up a potential RPI boosting game with Rutgers on Thursday.

“You increase your odds (of an at-large bid) with each time you’re able to find a way to win a game,” said Coach Rick Heller. “I just hope we can take the momentum we have from last weekend and go over there and continue to play well like we have been.”

PITCHING MATCHUP – rSoph Adam Mazur vs Sr Tyler Shingledecker

Adam Mazur has had a spectacular season for the Hawkeyes, which includes wins in his last seven starts, however the Hoosiers were all over the redshirt sophomore last week. Mazur was smoked for nine runs on nine hits, as well as three home runs, but the outing is an outlier compared to everything else he has put together over the last two months. In his first seven starts against Big Ten teams, Mazur allowed just seven earned runs over 53.2 innings, including 51 strikeouts to 10 walks. Luckily, the PSU lineup does not have quite the same firepower as Indiana. The Hoosiers average nearly 7.5 runs per game, while the Nittany Lions average 5.57 per game. Expect a bounce back outing from the projected first round draft pick.

The Nittany Lions will send their best pitcher in Tyler Shingledecker to the mound to face the Hawkeyes in the tournament opener. While he has started just three games this season, he has the best ERA on the team at 3.28. Shingledecker boasts 52 strikeouts to just 16 walks in 46.2 innings and a 1.33 WHIP. He has just two outings of 4.0 innings or more, but has started to throw more innings down the back stretch of the season. Over his last nine appearances, Shingledecker is averaging 3.1 innings, including a 5.0 inning outing against Michigan State where he allowed three runs on three hits. Over 20 appearances, he has held the opponent scoreless in 16 of them. Last week against Illinois, Tyler went 4.1 innings and allowed just one run on two hits and two walks while striking out four.

BREAKING DOWN THE LINEUPS

IOWA

The Iowa lineup is headlined by a pair of dangerous hitters in Peyton Williams and Keaton Anthony. Both hitters were honored by the Big Ten with Williams landing as a First Team All-Big Ten selection and Anthony as Freshman of the Year. Peyton Williams is batting .356 on the season with 17 doubles and 12 home runs, as well as a .447 on-base percentage. Keaton Anthony has outdone those numbers with a .360 average, including 20 doubles, 14 home runs and a team leading 53 RBIs. They bat back-to-back in the order and are a headache for every team they play.

Behind them Izaya Fullard has been swinging the bat well since his return from hamate bone surgery. In 29 games, Fullard is batting .324 with a couple of home runs, but most importantly he has drawn 23 walks/hbp to just 14 walks. That gives him a .442 on-base percentage.

Outside of those three, the Hawkeye lineup is built on putting together tough at bats and finding ways to get on base. When Iowa is playing their best baseball, Brendan Sher, Michael Seegers, Kyle Huckstorf, Sam Petersen and others are grinding out at bats, pushing up the pitch count and finding ways to produce. When Iowa is struggling, they are leaning on Williams or Anthony to hit a home run and do most of the work. Coach Heller and Co. will be looking for a complete effort up and down the lineup if they want to be successful this week.

PENN STATE

The Penn State offense has a couple of good bats, but statistically they are not on the same level as other teams Iowa has faced this season. The Nittany Lions rank in the bottom four in the Big Ten in average (11th), runs (12th), home runs (12th), on-base percentage (11th) and hits (10th) this season. Their 290 runs scored ranks 194th in the country.

C Matt Wood is the Nittany Lions top bat in the lineup, as he leads the Big Ten with a .395 batting average and is third with a .494 on-base percentage. Wood leads the team with 73 hits, 11 home runs, 28 extra base hits, 50 RBIs and 126 total bases. His 9.7% strikeout rate and hits in 32 of his last 34 games makes him a very tough out. 1B/DH Josh Spiegel is the second most dangerous bat in the lineup coming in to the week with a .305 batting average, including ten home runs and a team leading 16 doubles. Spiegel is second on the team in RBIs (42) and total bases (110). He does strikeout at a 26.4% clip, so he is vulnerable to empty at bats.

SS Jay Harry and OF/1B Cole Bartels are solid top of the lineup bats for PSU and they set the table for the guys below them. Harry comes in with a .332 batting average, including 67 hits and 16 extra base hits. Bartels is batting .279 with 57 hits and a .380 on-base percentage. The leadoff batter for the Nittany Lions can get on base, but is not an explosive bat with just a .353 slugging percentage. He comes to Omaha riding a six game hitting streak, including a .451 on-base percentage.

OF Billy Gerlott wraps up the notable bats in the lineup and Gerlott has some pop in his bat. He has collected 20 extra base hits, including six home runs. He is batting .246 on the season, but over the last nine games he is batting .378, so he is peaking at the right time.

OF Tayven Kelley (.195, 66 SO-8 BB), 2B Derek Cease (.233, .359 OBP), 3B Kyle Hannon (.248, 12 extra base hits, 7 SB) and OF Johnny Piacentino (.264, 4 3B, 27 RBIs) are some other names to keep an eye on in the Nittany Lion starting lineup tomorrow morning. DH Anthony Steele (.250) is a potential pinch-hit option in the later stages of the game.

PENN STATE BULLPEN

Penn State has had an interesting approach to pitching, as 11 different arms have started a game this year. That was confirmed with the Nittany Lions announcing their top bullpen arm as the starter for tomorrow. Their 5.85 ERA ranks 165th in the country, while their 1.64 WHIP ranks 191st in the country.

Jordan Morales has been a good arm in the PSU bullpen this season and leads the team with 25 appearances this season. His 4.10 ERA is second on the team and he does a good job of limiting walks with just 11 in 37.1 innings. He also leads the team with 13.3 SO/9. Carson Kohls has been up and down this season, as he has four outings of 2+ innings and 0 runs, but he has also allowed multiple runs in four outings. Kohls comes in with a 4.94 ERA and 1.81 WHIP.

For a brief moment, Mason Mellott was going to the be the starting pitcher for the Nittany Lions, but they decided to go with Shingledecker. Mellot is now an option out of the bullpen and comes in with a 5.85 ERA over 20 appearances. He has low strikeout numbers with just 7.4 SO/9, but he has walked just 16 batters over 40.0 innings of work.

Travis Luensmann (4.76 ERA) and Jaden Henline (5.27 ERA) have been starting games for the Nittany Lions this season, but they cannot be ruled out tomorrow. Luensmann has collected 71 strikeouts to 32 walks in 64.1 innings, but has allowed 67 hits. Henline limits walks with just 15 in 56.1 innings, but team are hitting .303 off of him.

Chase Renner (6.46 ERA), Steven Miller (5.87 ERA) and Ryan Partridge (6.75 ERA) could be other options. With it being the tournament opener, the Nittany Lions will likely have most of their arms available to throw.

FINAL THOUGHT

The Hawkeyes got a favorable draw, as Penn State is one of just two teams in the Big Ten Tournament that have not faced Iowa this season. That means the Nittany Lions will be seeing Adam Mazur for the first time this season. Advantage Iowa. After allowing 13 runs in three innings against Indiana, the Hawkeyes pitching staff held the Hoosiers to just four runs over the next 24 innings. If they can carry that performance to Omaha, they will be a very tough team to beat. Iowa likely needs a couple of wins to secure an at-large berth to the NCAA Tournament and a win in game 1 will have them on the right track.

First pitch was initially scheduled for 9:00 am, but has now been pushed back to 5:00 pm due to the weather in Omaha.