It's the final year for the Big Ten West and the division is going out with a bang, or at least with plenty of drama and unpredictability. With four weeks to play in the regular season, there is very little separation between the seven teams in the division.
Four teams are tied for first place in the division with 3-2 conference records -- Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Nebraska. Northwestern sits just a game back at 2-3 in Big Ten play. Even the teams at the bottom of the standings -- Purdue and Illinois -- are only two games back of the leaders.
Let's take a look at the remaining games for all seven Big Ten West squads.
While Purdue and Illinois may technically have a shot at the West title, those hopes are more mathematical than realistic -- especially since they would rely on the teams ahead of them losing several games on top of the Boilermakers and/or Illini winning out. Winning out seems like a particularly dubious proposition for Purdue, given the impending trip to Michigan next weekend.
At 2-3 in league play, it would be hard to say that Northwestern has a good shot at winning the West, but being one game back is about as good as a 2-3 team can ask for with four weeks left, especially as the Wildcats' remaining schedule gives them some favorable opportunities for wins. If the 'cats can navigate the next two weeks against Iowa and Wisconsin, they would have wins over three of the four teams currently tied atop the division — very handy for potential tiebreaker purposes. They also close out the season against Purdue and Illinois, the two worst teams in the West.
Of the four teams currently tied at 3-2, Minnesota is the only one with two games remaining against the West's current cellar dwellers, Purdue and Illinois. The Gophers also have the toughest remaining game of any of the top four contenders in the West, though -- at Ohio State on 11/18. Assuming that game will be a loss, the Gophers would max out at 8-4 overall and 6-3 in the Big Ten. They would have favorable tiebreakers over Iowa and Wisconsin in that scenario, though.
Iowa and Nebraska are the only teams that effectively control their own destiny in the Big Ten West race. If either the Hawkeyes or the Cornhuskers win out, they'll almost certainly be headed to Indianapolis for the Big Ten Championship Game.
Technically Minnesota could also finish at 7-2 in the Big Ten to tie either Iowa or Nebraska, but the Gophers achieving that record would involve them beating Ohio State in Columbus. That seems unlikely, although until last week Minnesota had also won in Columbus more recently (2000) than it had in Iowa City (1999).
Wisconsin has a game at Indiana (fresh off giving Penn State a tough game in Happy Valley) next weekend, before closing out the season against three consecutive Big Ten West contenders. Even if the Badgers can run the table, they would still need Iowa to lose another game, since the Hawkeyes currently own the head-to-head tiebreaker. Wisconsin may need to do all that without Braelon Allen as well -- he ended last night's game against Ohio State in a protective boot on the sideline.
Nebraska plays two more Big Ten East teams (at Michigan State on Saturday before a home game against Maryland on 11/11) before closing out the season at Wisconsin and home to Iowa. It looks very likely that the Big Ten West could be decided in the final two weeks of the season, with Nebraska-Wisconsin in Week 12 and Iowa-Nebraska and Wisconsin-Minnesota in Week 13.
In order for that season-ending Black Friday game with Nebraska to be meaningful for Iowa, the Hawkeyes will need to avoid further slip-ups in the games before that one -- starting with the game against Northwestern in Wrigley Field on Saturday (2:30 PM CT, Peacock).
