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Published Nov 23, 2023
Bowl Projections: Iowa Looking Citrus-y
Ross Binder  •  Hawkeye Beacon
Managing Editor

The finish line for the regular season is in sight, which also means that bowl season is right around the corner. Bowl projections are settling into a pretty fixed set of picks as well.

For Iowa the bowl projections look very straightforward -- another trip to the Citrus Bowl looks like it's on the cards for the Hawkeyes.

The round-up of expert picks:

ESPN (Bonagura): Citrus Bowl -- Iowa vs Ole Miss

ESPN (Schlabach): Citrus Bowl -- Iowa vs Ole Miss

The Athletic: Citrus Bowl -- Iowa vs Ole Miss

Yahoo Sports: Citrus Bowl -- Iowa vs Ole Miss

USA Today: Citrus Bowl -- Iowa vs Ole Miss

CBS Sports: Citrus Bowl -- Iowa vs Ole Miss

Bleacher Report: Citrus Bowl -- Iowa vs Ole Miss

Fox Sports: Las Vegas Bowl -- Iowa vs Utah

Seven of eight projectors have Iowa vs Ole Miss in the Citrus Bowl. The only outlier is Fox Sports, which pegs Iowa for a trip to the Las Vegas Bowl against Utah.

There are three main wrinkles to Iowa heading to the Citrus Bowl on January 1:

1) What if Iowa wins the Big Ten Championship Game?

This would be the happiest change-up to the Citrus Bowl predictions for the Hawkeyes. Iowa will play either Michigan or Ohio State in next week's Big Ten Championship Game in Indianapolis. Iowa is projected to be a three-touchdown underdog against either team, but an upset could happen.

The Big Ten Championship Game winner is guaranteed a berth in a New Year's Six bowl. That won't be the Rose Bowl this year because the Rose Bowl is one of the host sites for the College Football Playoff semifinals this season. The Cotton Bowl, Orange Bowl, Fiesta Bowl, and Peach Bowl are the NY6 bowls not hosting semifinals this season.

It's not entirely clear which of those bowls Iowa would go to if the Hawkeyes won the Big Ten Championship Game. The Orange Bowl is contractually obligated to take the highest-ranked Big Ten/SEC/Notre Dame team in years in which it doesn't host a CFP semifinal. The question becomes how high Iowa would move in the rankings with a win over Ohio State/Michigan in the Big Ten title game.

The Big Ten/SEC/Notre Dame teams currently ranked ahead of Iowa:

#1 Georgia
#2 Ohio State
#3 Michigan
#8 Alabama
#9 Missouri
#11 Penn State
#12 Ole Miss
#14 LSU

That is a substantial list, though a 11-2 Iowa with a win over Michigan/Ohio State would certainly be ranked ahead of Missouri, Penn State, Ole Miss, and LSU. One of Georgia or Alabama (whichever wins the SEC Championship Game) would still be ranked ahead of Iowa.

But would an 11-2 Iowa with a win over Michigan/Ohio State be ranked ahead of, say, an 11-2 Alabama team and/or an 11-1 Ohio State team (if the Buckeyes lose the Ohio State-Michigan game)? Hard to say at this point.

A hypothetical 11-2 Iowa team does assume an Iowa win over Nebraska on Friday, mainly because the possibility of Iowa losing to Nebraska and then turning around to beat Michigan/Ohio State in the title game seems even more far-fetched. A 10-3 Big Ten Champion Iowa team would be a real wildcard in terms of NY6 bowl placement.

Regardless, this scenario would be a tremendous "problem" to have, since it means Iowa would be Big Ten champions -- and also assured of a spot in a major bowl game.

2) The Penn State factor

Ohio State and Michigan are all but assured spots in NY6 games this season. If one of those two teams beats Iowa and wins the Big Ten Championship Game, that team will have a spot in the College Football Playoff. The other will still be ranked high enough to be selected for one of the other NY6 bowls as well.

The wild card is Penn State, which is ranked 11th in the current CFP rankings. The selection committee uses the rankings to set the matchups for the non-playoff bowls and if PSU slips any further in the rankings, they would be in jeopardy of missing out on a NY6 bowl, which would put them into the Citrus Bowl and move Iowa down the bowl pecking order.

The primary way that Penn State could slip further in the CFP rankings is by losing to Michigan State on Friday. That would be a bad loss and send the Nittany Lions tumbling down the CFP rankings. Few of the teams behind PSU look possible of jumping the Nittany Lions if they hold serve versus the Spartans and finish 10-2.

One team to watch in that scenario is Oregon State, currently ranked 16th but set to face 6th-ranked Oregon in a huge game on Friday night. Even if the Beavers win that game, though, that may not be enough to make up a five-spot gap in the rankings on PSU, especially since OSU would be 9-3 against Penn State's 10-2 record. (Oregon would also move down the rankings in that scenario, which might free up a spot for PSU as well.)

The other potential gatecrasher in the NY6 picture is the Big 12. Texas is the highest-ranked Big 12 team at 7th; if they win out, they'll assure themselves of a NY6 bowl, with an outside shot at the College Football Playoff. If Texas gets upset in the Big 12 Championship Game, though, that would open up a few additional possibilities.

Oklahoma is currently ranked 13th; if they beat Texas in the title game, they would move up in the rankings (and secure the Big 12's guaranteed NY6 slot), though Texas would also move down -- possibly behind a 10-2 Penn State team. Kansas State and Oklahoma State, two other potential Big 12 Championship Game participants, are currently ranked 19th and 20th; if they win, they would secure the Big 12's guaranteed NY6 slot -- but an upset of that magnitude would also likely drop Texas far enough in the rankings to eliminate them from the possibility of claiming an at-large spot in a NY6 bowl.

3) The recency factor

The final factor that might work against Iowa is the recency factor -- Iowa was just in the Citrus Bowl two years ago, the last time that they made the Big Ten Championship Game. Would bowl officials be concerned about "Citrus Bowl fatigue" among Iowa fans? According to the Big Ten's official bowl selection procedures, Iowa is available to be selected by the Citrus Bowl -- only Purdue is excluded this year.

The Big Ten's bowl agreement with the Citrus Bowl requires the bowl to take "at least" five different teams over the six-year term of the agreement, which could still be met if the Citrus Bowl takes Iowa again this year.

The reality is that "bowl game fatigue" has never seemed to be a factor for bowl game organizers when considering Iowa. That's a credit to the size (and spending power) of the Iowa fanbase, which annually sends large crowds of black-and-gold fans to bowl destinations. The smart money is that Citrus Bowl organizers would still (rightly) expect a large contingent of Iowa fans to make the trip to Orlando, even if many of them made the same trip just two years ago.

There also isn't another reasonable alternative to Iowa among Big Ten teams for the Citrus Bowl, assuming Penn State is in a NY6 bowl and unavailable. Michigan and Ohio State are 11-0 and Iowa and Penn State are each 9-2. No one else in the Big Ten has a better record than 6-5 and can finish no better than 7-5. Even if Iowa were to lose to Nebraska and lose the Big Ten Championship Game, taking a 7-5 team over 9-4 Iowa would likely be a tough sell.

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