The Iowa Women’s basketball team looked dead in the water ten days ago, when it came to Big Ten title chances and a potential top four seed in the NCAA Tournament. The Hawkeyes were projected a #7 seed in the bracket projection and likely needed to win out in their last four games against three ranked teams to have a shot at a four seed or the Big Ten title.
Yet here we are. Iowa has won three straight, and everything is still on the table for the Hawkeyes, as they come up on their last game of the regular season.
Big Ten Title Scenarios
Indiana and Maryland were eliminated from title contention last night, as they will not be able to play the full slate of 18 conference games due to Covid cancelations. The Terrapins were eliminated with the Hawkeyes win over Rutgers. That leaves three remaining scenarios…
1. Michigan defeats Iowa (Michigan wins Big Ten outright)
2. Ohio State defeats Michigan State, Iowa defeats Michigan (Ohio State and Iowa share)
3. Iowa defeats Michigan, Michigan State defeats Ohio State (Iowa wins Big Ten outright)
An Iowa win on Sunday would give them at least a share of the Big Ten title for the first time since 2007 when they also shared with Ohio State.
Looking at the Big Ten Tournament, Iowa clinched a double-bye with their win over Rutgers. Now, the Hawkeyes can land as a #1, #2 or a #4 seed, which leaves a number of quarterfinal opponents. If Iowa wins and gets a #2 seed, they will likely play Minnesota or Northwestern. However, if the Hawkeyes lose and get the #4 seed, they will likely play Nebraska, who would face Illinois or Penn State in the second round.
NCAA Tournament Resume
The Hawkeyes are projected as a #5 seed in the most recent bracket prediction by Charlie Creme of ESPN. He has them traveling to the Knoxville regional, hosted by #4 seed Tennessee.
However, the consensus thought is that if the Hawkeyes defeat a top 10 ranked Michigan on Sunday and then pick up a quarterfinal win in the Big Ten Tournament, that they would clinch a #4 seed.
As it stands, the Hawkeyes are 11-6 in Q1/2 games, including an 8-4 record vs Q1 opponents. While the IUPUI loss has dropped just below the line and become a Q3 loss, an 8-1 record in Q3/4 games, with the lone loss being 20-4 IUPUI, is not bad.
Here is how the Iowa resume stacks up against current projected #4/#5 seeds…
#4 Indiana (4-6 Q1) (6-0 Q2) (9-0 Q3) #5 BYU (3-1 Q1) (6-1 Q2) (15-0 Q3/4)
#4 Maryland (4-7 Q1) (7-0 Q2) (9-0 Q3/4) #5 North Carolina (5-5 Q1) (5-0 Q2) (12-0 Q3/4)
#4 Tennessee (7-5 Q1) (10-1 Q2) (5-0 Q3/4) #5 Oregon (6-8 Q1) (5-1 Q2) (6-1 Q3/4)
#4 Notre Dame (7-6 Q1) (6-0 Q2) (8-0 Q3/4) #5 Iowa (8-4 Q1) (3-2 Q2) (8-1 Q3/4)
The Hawkeyes could potentially move ahead of the loser of the Indiana/Maryland game this evening, while Notre Dame and LSU each finish up with top ten opponents.
The last thing that comes in to play, which we have referenced before is the impact that Carver-Hawkeye Arena and Caitlin Clark have on the selection committee. The Sunday crowd at Carver is sold out and will be a preview of what might come if the Hawkeyes host a tournament regional. On top of that, the NCAA wants the best player in women’s college basketball, Caitlin Clark, to stay in the tournament for as long as possible and that means potentially giving her an easier path to the Sweet 16. If the Hawkeyes can pull off the huge win on Sunday, they will be in the driver’s seat for hosting a regional.
