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Published Sep 29, 2023
Five Things We're Watching: Iowa vs Michigan State
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Ross Binder  •  Hawkeye Beacon
Managing Editor

Iowa is back home to try and rebound from last week's disaster in Happy Valley. On tap: a night game (6:37 PM CT, NBC) against Michigan State (2-2, 0-1 Big Ten) with plenty of problems of its own. What will be the keys to the game for the Hawkeyes against the Spartans? Here are five key things:


MOTIVATION

It shouldn't take much for the Iowa players and coaches to get motivated for Saturday's game against Michigan State. Erasing the bad taste of last week's nationally televised 31-0 dismantling by Penn State should be ample motivation. (And for the Iowa staff, the presence of former Spartan head coach Mark Dantonio back on the sideline -- this time as a special assistant to current interim head coach Harlon Barnett -- might produce a little added motivation, given some of the old bad blood there.)

As miserable as last week's loss was, it did not significantly impact Iowa's ability to win the Big Ten West. That goal still remains on the table for Iowa, though achieving that goal will require significantly better play than Iowa was able to produce against Penn State last week.

That's the bigger question for Iowa this week -- motivation shouldn't be an issue, but can they turn motivation into execution and actual production? The players and coaches said all the right things about that during the press availability this week, but on Saturday they'll need their play to back up their words.

RUNNING GAME SUCCESS

After running for almost 300 yards against Western Michigan two weeks ago, Iowa's running backs managed just 27 yards on 12 carries against Penn State last Saturday. That game was a major step back for the Iowa ground game. The MSU game might provide us with a better sense of how much of Iowa's progress in the run game against WMU was a result of the quality of the competition.

The Spartans currently rank 9th in the Big Ten in run defense (128.5 ypg) and 10th in the league yards allowed per carry (3.84 ypc). They have been good at keep running backs out of the end zone -- MSU has allowed just two rushing touchdowns this season. Establishing an effective ground game will certainly be a priority for Iowa in this game; how effectively they're able to do so could determine how close this game is in the second half

WIDE RECEIVER INVOLVEMENT

One of the main talking points that emerged from Iowa's disastrous offensive performance against Penn State was a focus on wide receiver production -- or the lack thereof. Iowa receivers finished with two receptions for 18 yards against Penn State. That continued an alarming trend of minimal wide receiver involvement in the Iowa passing offense; through four games this season, Iowa receivers have 14 receptions for 148 and two touchdowns.

At this point of the season, Iowa receivers are actually on pace for less production this season than they had last season -- and last season's production was pretty dire (76 receptions for 796 yards and two touchdowns). Tight ends have led Iowa in receiving the last three seasons; you have to go back to 2019 for the last full season in which an Iowa receiver led the team in receptions, yards, and touchdowns.

There were several questions after the Penn State game and again during Tuesday's media availability about getting the receivers more involved -- it's clearly a topic of conversation around the offense. It would not be a surprise if there was a concerted effort from Brian Ferentz and Cade McNamara to try and make sure that the receivers receive more targets. Could that be the spark the Iowa offense needs to create at least modest production?

TURNOVERS

Neither Iowa nor Michigan State have posted healthy turnover margins this season. Each team is tied for 11th in the league with a -4 turnover margin and the struggles afflicting both teams have been similar. Neither team has been able to force many turnovers (four forced for MSU, three for Iowa) and neither has protected the ball very well (eight turnovers lost by MSU, seven turnovers lost by Iowa). They're even both coming off season-worst turnover performances: Michigan State had a -4 turnover margin against Maryland last week, while Iowa also had a -4 turnover margin against Penn State.

Iowa has forced just one turnover in its last two games and hasn't had an interception since Week 2 against Iowa State. Ending that turnover drought would go a long way toward helping Iowa get a win on Saturday night. Turnovers would help the Iowa defense get off the field sooner (a definite problem last week) and likely set the Iowa offense up with shorter fields (which should make it easier for the offense to score points).

Turnovers played a key factor in both Iowa and Michigan State suffering blowout losses last week. Whichever team can best avoid turnovers on Saturday -- and manage to force a few turnovers -- will be in a much better position to get a win.

SACK ATTACK

Aside from turnovers, the one area of the Iowa defense that's been notably lacking so far this season is sacks. Iowa ranks last in the Big Ten with just three sacks this season. The Iowa defense also hasn't ranked particularly high in QB pressures this season; generating pressure on the QB has been a consistent problem for Iowa's defensive line this season.

Michigan State has allowed seven sacks this season, but five of those sacks have been in their last two games -- which are also the two games the Spartans have played against power conference opposition (Washington, Maryland). MSU began the season with games against Central Michigan and Richmond and it's no surprise that they were more successful at protecting the quarterback against the pass rush from those opponents.

On the other side of the ball, Iowa has allowed nine sacks this season (11th in the Big Ten), while Michigan State has recorded 10 sacks. All 10 of Michigan State's sacks came in those aforementioned games against CMU and Richmond, though -- the Spartans failed to record a sack against Washington and Maryland in their last two games. The Iowa OL needs a strong bounce-back performance after getting overwhelmed by Penn State last week; the Spartans might be the right opponent to help that get that bounce-back performance.

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