The Iowa Hawkeyes baseball team will travel to Bloomington for a three-game series that has serious implications in the Big Ten Standings. Iowa comes in with an 18-11 record, coming off a weekend in which they took three out of four from Maryland/Northwestern in a pod series. Indiana enters the series with an 18-8 record and is coming off a three-game sweep of Minnesota.

Coach Heller’s Thoughts on the Hoosiers

“We all know that they have some really frontline arms. We are going to see three high quality starters.”

“The top five guys in their lineup are really good players…They’re tough and they’re tough at home and that place plays small, so that could work out to our favor this year.”

The Hoosier Bats

Indiana touts a pretty interesting set of players in the field because they put together a variety of lineups. The Hoosiers have four players, who have started all 26 games, but then they have nine players that have started between nine and 18 games, which makes it a little harder to break them down. The Hoosier offense is sixth in the Big Ten in batting average, sixth in home runs, sixth in OBP, but second in strikeouts.

Drew Ashley leads the team in batting average, at .330 and has an OBP (on-base %) of .449. Ashley is not a huge extra base hit guy, as 24 of his 32 hits are singles. Grant Richardson is arguably the most talented hitter on the team and is just behind Ashley in batting average at .323. The thing Richardson does well is not strikeout a ton. He has struck out just 19 times in 117 plate appearances, which is a strikeout rate of 16.2%, well below the team rate of 24.8%. Grant also has some speed, stealing nine bases in ten attempts.

Cole Barr is batting .311 on the season, with a .442 OBP, but he has a little bit higher strikeout rate compared too the first two guys, at 26.8%. Barr has 12 extra base hits on 28 total hits and has scored on 48% of the time he has reached base. Paul Toetz is the fourth guy that has started every game and is batting .280, with ten doubles on the season.

After that there are a lot of guys that have started a decent number of games. Jordan Fucci has had a pretty disappointing season to this point, batting just .246 in 18 starts, which is well below the .283 mark he posted in 15 games in 2020. He has also struck out 30 times compared to 19 last season. Despite all of that, Fucci is still a very talented bat and if he is in the lineup, it will still be a challenge for Iowa pitchers.

Morgan Colopy is another guy that could potentially start a game or two this weekend. Colopy is doing pretty well, batting .309, including ten extra base hits. The thing about Colopy is that he has struck out 22 times to just three walks. Out of all the other guys that have started some games, none of the have particularly scary numbers.

The Hoosier Pitching Staff

Indiana has the best three-man starting rotation in the Big Ten and I don’t believe that it is even arguable. As Coach Heller mentioned, Iowa is going to see three high quality arms and the quality arms extend into the bullpen as well. The Indiana staff is ranked second in the country in ERA, fifth in WHIP (walks/hits per inning pitched) and second in hits allowed per nine innings.

Tommy Sommer is going to be the Friday starter, up against Trenton Wallace and statistically he has the worst numbers of the three starters, but is the ace of the staff. Sommer is 5-1, with a 3.42 ERA, while striking out 53 and walking 28. Over eight starts, he is averaging almost six innings per outing, while allowing an opponent batting average of .213.

The projected Saturday starter is sophomore McCade Brown, and you could make the argument that he is the best pitcher on this Indiana team. Brown is just 4-2, but has posted a 2.41 ERA, while striking out 63 and walking just 22. The numbers continue to look better as you get deeper. Brown is allowing a WHIP of just 1.10 and an opponent batting average of .144, which is remarkable. His outings are a little shorter than Sommer, as he averages 5.1 innings per start, so if Iowa can get him out of the game after five innings that would be a plus.

Gabe Bierman will be the projected Sunday starter for the Hoosiers. Bierman is 3-2, with a 2.21 ERA, while striking out 42 and walking 18 over 40.2 innings. He touts the best WHIP of the three starters at 1.03 and an opponent batting average of .170.

While Coach Heller knows it will be a tough weekend, he did talk a little about the success the team has had vs frontline starters saying, “We do a pretty good job (this season) of finding ways to score on frontline arms.”

Out of the bullpen they have three guys that I would like to touch on. Matt Litwicki has not allowed a run and just four baserunners over 8.2 innings pitched. He is the closer, as he has compiled four saves on the season. Nathan Stahl is another great arm out of the bullpen for Indiana. Stahl has posted a 1.23 ERA over 14.2 innings pitched, but is hittable. He has allowed 15 hits over his seven appearances and has allowed a .259 opponent batting average. The third guy I wanted to mention is John Modguno. Modguno has pitched 19.2 innings over eight relief appearances and one start, with a 1.83 ERA. There will most definitely be other arms used over the weekend by Indiana, but those three are probably the best ones that Iowa will face.

Final Thoughts

This is a huge weekend for the Hawkeyes, not only for NCAA Tournament implications, but Big Ten Standings wise, as well. Both teams are among the last 6-8 teams in the tournament field, so whoever loses the weekend series will be squarely on the edge of the bubble come next week. Coach Heller will have the boys ready to go for the pivotal series.