Illinois is the biggest surprise in the Big Ten so far. After spending most of the past 15 years at or near the bottom of the conference, the Illini came into today’s game with Iowa at 12-2 overall and 2-1 in the Big Ten.

The Illini probably aren’t true Big Ten title contenders just yet, but they have positioned themselves to compete for their first NCAA Tournament bid since 2003. A win over #12 Iowa would give them a huge signature victory on their resume come March.

These are the games that help decide conference titles. Illinois is a team that Iowa should beat, but one it could absolutely lose to if the Hawkeyes didn’t play their best. Would Iowa move to 4-0 in the Big Ten, or would Illinois defend its home court and get its signature victory?

The first quarter was back and forth. Iowa struggled early to adapt to Illinois’ style. The Illini are an athletic team that try to slow the opposition down and defend well in the half court. Early on, that defense forced Iowa into several turnovers and bad shots. Illinois also got its offense going by freeing its guards to attack the basket with perimeter screens.

Iowa finally went on a late run when it started getting Monika Czinano regular touches in the paint. Czinano scored 7 first quarter points, and her touches freed up shooting space for a Kate Martin three and driving space for Caitlin Clark. Iowa’s late run gave the Hawks an 18-13 lead after one.

Early in the second quarter, Illinois did a better job at limiting Iowa’s post entries or challenging Czinano when she got the ball inside. Iowa’s offense didn’t get as many good looks as a result and the offense went cold. Illinois capitalized on its stops by pushing offense in transition and getting open layups or jumpers. Iowa finally called timeout when Illinois pushed its lead to 39-31, but Illinois’ offense kept on rolling and the Illini led 44-33 at the half. Illinois scored 22 points in the final six minutes of the quarter.

Illinois pushed the lead to 13 points on its first possession of the third quarter. Then Iowa responded with a big run of its own. The key for Iowa was limiting transition opportunities for Illinois. The Hawks were either making baskets or able to get back and set their half court defense before Illinois could push things. A Caitlin Clark step-back three with just over five minutes to go cut the Illinois lead down to three points, 51-48. Iowa then lost focus on both ends in the final few minutes of the quarter and let Illinois rebuild the lead to 67-58 heading to the fourth quarter.

Iowa came out firing offensively early in the fourth quarter and cut Illinois’ lead to 75-74 with five and a half minutes to play. Illinois responded with several stops and a couple baskets to push it back to 80-74. Clark hit back with a quick three, but Illinois got a basket, a steal, and another quick basket to take an 84-77 lead with two and a half minutes to go.

Iowa battled back again and cut the lead to 87-84 with less than a minute to play. Iowa had two possessions in the final minute with a shot to tie, but Clark missed a three on the first and got called for a foul on a scramble play after a bad pass in the second. Illinois held on for a 90-86 victory.

Clark led Iowa with 32 points, 7 assists, and 5 rebounds. She was 7/14 from three-point range. Czinano had 24 points on 11/17 shooting and 6 rebounds. Iowa really missed her offense at the end of the second quarter when she was on the bench in foul trouble. McKenna Warnock was the last Hawkeye in double figures with 17 points and 6 rebounds. Kate Martin and Gabbie Marshall didn’t have a significant impact offensively, and Iowa’s bench played just 23 minutes. A box score for the game is here.

When Iowa is locked in, the Hawkeyes have one of the best offenses in women’s basketball. They rebound extremely well on the defensive end. They plays good enough defense to support its offense.

But right now the flaw keeping this team from being great is that it has several extended periods each game where one or more of those areas break down completely.

In the second quarter, it was Iowa’s transition defense. Illinois got good looks at all levels and converted most of them to go on a big run. Iowa’s offense contributed to that by taking bad shots that made transition offense easier for Illinois.

In the late third quarter and early fourth quarter, it was defensive rebounding. Illinois had several crucial possessions where it missed its first or even second shot only to get another board and finish. That was the difference between Iowa tying the game and still being down a couple possessions.

Iowa will certainly blame itself for this loss given how close it was and how Iowa crumbled during its spirals. But Illinois deserves plenty of credit for always having an answer. Iowa made plenty of runs in the second half and cut Illinois’ lead down to a single possession several different times. Illinois always responded with a huge shot or stop that killed Iowa’s momentum.

Iowa returns to action next Saturday, January 7th at 3:30 PM CT at #14 Michigan. The game will be televised on FOX.

This game is big for several reasons. First, it’s Iowa’s only regular season meeting with Michigan. The winner will hold the tiebreaker over the other for Big Ten Tournament seeding.

Second, it would be a big boost for Iowa’s NCAA Tournament resume. The selection committee values road wins above all others, and a road win over a Top 15 team would likely be one of Iowa’s best victories come March.

Finally, it’s a game Iowa needs to win if it wants to compete for a regular season conference championship. The top 5-6 teams in the conference are very good. There are at least three more games on Iowa’s schedule after Michigan in which it will be the underdog. A second conference loss early on would give Iowa an uphill battle over the rest of the conference season in the quest to repeat as champions.