Iowa Baseball Earns 3-Seed at Big Ten Tournament

Iowa entered its final regular season series at Northwestern just trying to secure the 3-seed at next week's Big Ten Tournament in Omaha, NE, and avoid defeats against a poor Northwestern squad that could damage hopes for an NCAA Tournament bid.

Mission accomplished, on both fronts.

The Hawkeyes took two games out of three from the Wildcats, which allowed them to maintain 3rd place in the Big Ten standings and left them with an RPI of 32, only a slight dip from the RPI of 29 they had before the series began.

Here's the full bracket for the Big Ten Tournament:

As noted, Iowa earned the 3-seed thanks to a 15-8 Big Ten record that was good for 3rd place, behind back-to-back Big Ten regular season champion Maryland (17-7) and 2-seed Indiana (16-8). As the 3-seed, Iowa will actually play in the first game of the Big Ten Tournament, facing off with 6-seed Michigan at 10 AM CT on Tuesday, May 23. Indiana and Illinois are the other two teams in Iowa's portion of the bracket.

The winner of Iowa-Michigan will take on the winner of the Indiana-Illinois game at 2 PM CT on Thursday, May 25. The loser of the Iowa-Michigan game will take on the loser of the Indiana-Illinois game at 7 PM CT on Wednesday, May 24. (Reminder: the Big Ten Tournament is a double-elimination event, at least until the championship game, which is winner-take-all.)

Maryland (1-seed), Nebraska (4-seed), Rutgers (5-seed), and Michigan State (8-seed) make up the other half of the bracket for the Big Ten Tournament, but Iowa would not play any of those teams at this event until the Big Ten Championship Game. Iowa finished 7-2 against those teams this season, sweeping a pair of series against Nebraska and Michigan State and going 1-2 against Maryland. Iowa and Rutgers did not play during the regular season.

Iowa had much less experience against the opponents in their half of the Big Ten Tournament during the regular season. The Hawkeyes went 1-2 against Maryland, but did not play either Michigan or Illinois.

The strength of this Michigan team is emphatically not at the plate. The Wolverines rank 11th in almost every key hitting category -- they don't hit for average, they don't hit for power, and they don't draw walks. That looks like a very good match-up for an Iowa team that boasts some of the best pitching in the conference.

The Illini are also below-average in most hitting categories, although they do have some pop -- their 89 home runs are third-most in the league, which has helped them post a robust .484 team slugging percentage. Their ability to hit the long ball would be one thing to watch if Iowa and Illinois find themselves matched up this week.

The Hoosiers are a good overall team, but they're especially strong at the plate, ranking only behind Maryland in several notable hitting categories. When Iowa and Indiana played earlier this season, Iowa's only win over the Hoosiers came via a 7-1 win when Iowa had 7 runs on 9 hits (including two doubles and a home run). Indiana won the second game 2-0 in 10 innings on a walk-off two-run homer, and took the third game of the series 4-2 after scoring all four runs after the sixth inning.

Which is to say: two of the three Iowa-Indiana games this season were very tight and there's every reason to expect something similar if they meet up again at the Big Ten Tournament.

As noted, Iowa boasts one of the best pitching staffs in the Big Ten, leading the conference in ERA, opponent batting average, and strikeouts. The Achilles' heel of the Iowa staff is control -- the Hawkeyes can occasionally get a little wild, as evidenced by the third-most walks in the conference, the second-most wild pitches, and a healthy number of hit batters as well. Star Hawkeye pitcher Brody Brecht is an obvious culprit here, but he has partners in crime in the rotation. If they can avoid that wildness, though, their arm talent could guide Iowa to a deep run.

Michigan's pitching is better than its hitting, but it's not particularly noteworthy, either. The Wolverines rate slightly below-average in ERA, opponent batting average, and strikeouts. Connor O'Halloran looks likely to get the start on Tuesday -- he started 14 games this season, going 8-5 with a 3.43 ERA. Opposing batters hit just .218 against him and he had a a team-best 103 strikeouts against 23 walks.

Illinois also doesn't rate highly in many pitching categories, other than avoiding walks and wild pitches. The Illini have given up a lot of hits (488, 9th most in the league) and home runs (66, 4th most), whcih suggests a very hittable staff.

Indiana's pitching stats aren't uniformly good, but the Hoosiers rate well in ERA, average, and strikeouts. Outside of some shakiness in the first game against Iowa, the Hoosier pitchers really locked down the Iowa bats effectively -- just two runs in the final two games.

Iowa and Indiana look like the two best teams in the top half of the bracket by a pretty wide margin -- which is probably to be expected, given that they're also the 2- and 3-seeds. The path to the Big Ten Tournament Championship Game seems likely to involve at least one Hawkeye-Hoosier showdown. That said, the Big Ten Tournament has a history of curveball results and lower seeds making runs; the Hawkeyes have actually had more success here as a lower seed, so there's no room for taking any games off.

In terms of the NCAA Tournament, it doesn't seem like results at the Big Ten Tournament will have a significant impact on Iowa's NCAA aspirations. The Hawkeyes seem to be in solid position for an at-large bid after the regular season (39-13 overall, 5-6 in Quad 1 games, 6-2 in Quad 2 games, 5-2 in Quad 3 games, RPI of 32) and even an 0-2 showing at the Big Ten Tournament doesn't seem likely to move them out of at-large contention.

Obviously, the more wins they can bank at the BTT, the more they'll be able to solidify their at-large resume. If Iowa can win the Big Ten Tournament, the Hawkeyes would earn an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament and sidestep all at-large questions. Their ceiling at the NCAA Regionals is likely no higher than a 2-seed, though -- with a current RPI of 32 and a tepid slate of foes, Iowa simply won't be able to push that number high enough to be a Regional host.

Iowa-Michigan, the first game of the 2023 Big Ten Tournament, is set to get underway at 10 AM CT on Tuesday, May 23. That game (and all games at the event) will be televised live on BTN.

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