Iowa MLB Draft Report
As the MLB Draft approaches, Iowa fans are turning their attention to towards a handful of players that will be looking to hear their name called. The results of the draft will have a large impact on how the Hawkeyes roster looks going into next season.
Let’s take a look at a number of Hawkeye players and try to give our best guess as to whether or not they will return to Iowa City for another year or begin their pro career.
OF Ben Norman – First Team All-Big Ten 2021
The first one on this list, is not someone who can return to the Hawkeyes, but a guy who will surely hear his name called in the draft. Ben Norman returned for an extra season with the Hawkeyes and he did not disappoint batting .306, while leading the team in home runs, RBIs, triples, hits, runs and stolen bases. To go along with his performance at the plate, Norman was excellent in the outfield making many stellar plays, including a leaping catch against the wall vs Nebraska. He reminds me of Eric Toole, who was drafted in the 22nd round back in 2015, but has an sizable advantage in the power department over Toole, so I expect him to get drafted higher than Toole did. Norman is participating in the MLB Draft League with the Trenton Thunder.
When I talked with Ben earlier in the year, he was excited about any pro-opportunities that he may get saying., “I love baseball and I want to play as long as I can…If that opportunity presents itself, I can’t wait to get going (with it).”
P Trenton Wallace – Big Ten Pitcher of the Year, Second Team All-American, First Team All-Big Ten
Wallace had an incredible season for the Hawkeyes, going 7-1 on the season, while leading Iowa to an 11-2 record in his 13 starts. His ERA (2.34), strikeouts (106) and earned runs allowed (19) were among the best in the conference. Not much to breakdown here, as Wallace just had an all-around impressive season on the mound. There is a reason why he was the Big Ten Pitcher of the Year and an All-American selection. Throughout the season, Wallace had scouts attending games and generally showed them a solid performance. The only thing that would keep Trenton from beginning his pro career would be if he were to be selected in a round that was significantly lower than he expected. My guess is that Trenton Wallace has thrown his last game at Iowa.
Chance of returning- 10%
P Jack Dreyer
Dreyer is arguably the most interesting decision to follow outside of Brody Brecht, who will be discussed a little later. Dreyer most definitely has the talent to be a pitcher on a pro baseball team, but the huge question mark is his health. Dreyer missed most of the 2019 season with a shoulder injury, had 2020 cut short due to Covid and then missed 2021 with Tommy John surgery. At the time of the draft, he will likely be around nine months into a 12-month rehab, which makes it even harder to properly evaluate him. He has pitched in 20 games over three seasons, striking out 76 in just 60 innings, so the arm talent is there. However, the question that faces any organization looking to draft/sign him is…Do you want to take a chance on a guy who has thrown as sparingly as Dreyer has?
Coach Heller told me that Dreyer is looking to get drafted or signed, but if he returns, he will be a 100% go for the 2022 season. I do not think teams will be willing to take a chance on a guy with as few appearances as Dreyer has, but it is unknown if Dreyer is planning on taking any offer that comes his way, which is what is lowering my confidence level here. If draft position and money matters to him, I would push my number even higher, but for now…
Chance of returning- 75%
2B/1B Izaya Fullard – Third Team All-Big Ten
Outside of the Brody Brecht, this one is the other one that is completely up in the air in my mind. I asked Fullard about his decision and he said that he is looking to get drafted/signed, but if that opportunity does not arise, he will likely return for his final season of eligibility.
Fullard started out his 2021 campaign on the slow side, but picked things up down the stretch, ending the season on a 27 game on-base streak. He hit all five home runs during the last month of the season and had a pretty good year fielding wise.
At times, Fullard struggled swinging at pitches out of the strike zone, but as the season progressed, he had a much better approach at the plate and that led to a hot stretch of hitting. In the field, Izaya played both first and second base, but due to his height, Fullard may be more of a second baseman at the next level. 5’11 is not a large target for an infielder to hit.
As for if he gets drafted, I am not sure on this one. I believe another year at Iowa could help Fullard become a more consistent hitter and he could work on his pitch selection. In the field, another year at second base would only help him become an even better fielder. Hoping this one goes in favor of the Hawkeyes because I feel like he is primed for a big season. Peyton Williams and Izaya Fullard would be a very dangerous duo in the lineup.
Chance of returning- 50%
P Cam Baumann
Baumann really put together a solid 2021 campaign and potentially played himself into a late round draft pick. Cam put together six quality starts and allowed one run or fewer in five of his 12 starts this season. Baumann also did a great job of limiting walks, giving up just 14 freebases in 68.2 innings of work. He is playing the MLB Draft league this summer with the West Virginia Black Bears.
An MLB scout told me that he would not be incredibly surprised if Baumann was a Day 3 selection, but he has not seen his name appear on anyone’s rankings. He also mentioned that he does not know of any specific team that is heavily looking at him.
If Baumann does become a late round draft choice, it will come down to whether or not he feels he can improve that stock with another season at Iowa or if he wants to begin his pro career then and there. My gut feeling is that Cam will leave if he is drafted, however this one could really go either way.
Chance of returning- 45%
P Ben Probst
Probst is participating in the new MLB Draft league with the West Virginia Black Bears, but unless, he has an outstanding season with WV, it seems like Probst will find himself back in Iowa City next season.
Talking with an MLB scout, he made it sound like Probst will have a hard time getting drafted due mostly in part to pitching just 7.1 innings on the season. Along with the limited work, Probst struggled with walks, giving up ten freebases. On the bright side, Probst allowed just two hits all year and boasts a fastball in the mid 90s. However, the scout said he finds it “fairly unlikely” that Probst gets drafted.
From a bullpen standpoint, Iowa would benefit from getting Probst back because he has the tools to be a reliable bullpen arm. Coach Heller mentioned that sparse work this season affected some of his bullpen guys and I believe that was the case with Probst.
Chance of returning- 90%
P Brody Brecht
This is the big one.
Luring a top 5-10 round prospect to your school out of high school is not an easy thing to do and for Iowa, Brody Brecht would make an immediate impact on the pitching staff. However, football, rather than baseball is what could seal the deal for Iowa.
I reached out to Brecht recently regarding the timetable for his decision and he says that he is still planning on deciding before the draft if he wants to tell teams to draft him. That decision will likely come a few days before, so mark your calendars for the July 6-10 area.
As mentioned above, Brody is an Iowa football commit and has mentioned that football is a big part of the decision-making process. “If it doesn’t work out, I kind of just gave up all of my football dreams. I don’t want to just throw away everything that I’ve worked for in football my whole life for something that may not work out,” said Brecht in an interview with Blair Sanderson.
A 94-97 mph fastball, as well as a slider/curveball combination makes him a very intriguing candidate for the upcoming MLB Draft. Brecht showed that he was one of the best pitching prospects in the country recently against Ankeny Centennial, with multiple MLB scouts, as well as Coach Heller and myself in attendance. On the season, Brecht has a 5-0 record, posting a 0.95 ERA, while holding opponents to a .129 batting average. In just 29.1 innings of work he has struck out an impressive 61 batters, while walking just 12. 25 baserunners over 29.1 innings is good for an elite .82 WHIP.
With those stats, Brecht finds himself at #77 on the MLB Pipeline Top 250 Prospect list. That is the equivalent to a mid-third round draft spot and over an $800,000 signing bonus, which would likely sneak a little higher if a team wanted to lure him away from football. Still the scouting report by MLB Pipeline gives Iowa an optimistic view on their chances of getting Brecht saying, “…scouts still think it will be almost impossible to divert him from playing football for the Hawkeyes.”
I tend to lean on the side of him coming to Iowa, but this one will stay a mystery up until he makes his decision official.
Chance of coming to Iowa- 55%
P Marcus Morgan
The thing that scouts were hoping for out of Morgan early in this high school season was a jump in fastball velocity. Morgan has a good breaking ball, with a fastball around 87-90mph and the thing about him is that he has played multiple sports in high school, so he has never focused solely on baseball. The expectation is that once he starts working year-round on his pitching, he will be able to get a jump in fastball velocity to go with an already good breaking ball. Since, the velocity jump has not happened yet, Marcus Morgan will be playing for the Hawkeyes for at least a few seasons.
Chance of coming to Iowa- 98%
The MLB Draft will be televised on MLB Network from July 11-13. The draft will include 612 selections over 20 rounds.