Iowa WBB 2024 NCAA Tournament: Early Regional Thoughts
When the bracket reveal was finished, the ESPN crew immediately noted that Iowa appeared to have the toughest road of any 1-seed. LSU as a 3-seed? UCLA as a tough 2-seed? Another game against Kansas State?
While Iowa does indeed face a tough path to make it to the Final Four in Cleveland, it's important to keep in mind that Iowa wouldn't have to play both LSU and UCLA. Iowa would also potentially be playing the winner of that matchup two days later, which could be beneficial.
Here's a look at the full bracket for the Albany 2 region:
Another quirk of Iowa's region is that Iowa has played the 3 through 7 seeds at some point in the past few seasons. Here's an early look at the path Iowa will face in a potential return to the Final Four:
All stats from this post are cited from HerHoopStats.
FIRST ROUND
16-seed Holy Cross
16-seed UT-Martin
There's not a ton to say here. UT-Martin went 16-16 overall and won the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament as the 3-seed. The Skyhawks played three NCAA Tournament teams during the season in Marquette, Vanderbilt, and South Dakota State. They fell to Marquette 84-51, lost to Vanderbilt 70-68, and were defeated by South Dakota State 55-38.
Holy Cross went 20-12 this season and won the Patriot League in the regular season and the conference tournament. The Crusaders only played two Power Five conference opponents, losing to Boston College 66-61 and Villanova 63-53. Neither of those teams made the NCAA Tournament.
SECOND ROUND
8-seed West Virginia
9-seed Princeton
West Virginia went 24-7 on the season but lacks marquee wins. The Mountaineers' best victories came against 5-seed Oklahoma and 7-seed Iowa State, though both wins were at home. West Virginia didn't face a daunting non-conference schedule, as they didn't play a Power 5 opponent that made the NCAA Tournament. They did beat Penn State 83-65 at home.
West Virginia is better defensively than offensively. They've allowed teams to score 57.8 ppg, which ranks 41st nationally. Teams have't shot well from two-point range or behind the three-point line against them.
Offensively, they have a clear #1 scorer in Ja'Naiya Quinerly, who averages 19.6 ppg. The Mountaineers average 74.6 ppg, though, which ranks 40th nationally. They've shot 32.4% from three, which ranks 107th. The Mountaineers also struggle significantly on the glass. They rank in the 200s in both offensive and defensive rebounding rate.
Princeton played a tougher non-conference schedule, beating 11-seed Middle Tennessee State (65-60) and 5-seed Oklahoma (77-63) and only losing 72-63 against 4-seed Indiana and 77-74 to 2-seed UCLA. The Tigers went 13-1 in the Ivy League, only losing to 12-seed Columbia.
The Tigers play at a very slow pace. Their tempo of 65.8 possessions per 40 minutes rankd 332nd in the nation this season. They are more balanced than West Virginia, though, as they rank 25th nationally in points per 100 possessions and 34th nationally in points allowed per 100 possessions. Princeton only has two players that average in double figures: Kaitlyn Chen averages 15.8 ppg, while Madison St. Rose averages 14.5 ppg.
On paper, this seems like a fairly even matchup, which should be expected in an 8/9 game.
SWEET SIXTEEN
4-seed Kansas State
5-seed Colorado
12-seed Drake
13-seed Portland
Iowa played Colorado in the Sweet Sixteen last year, and the Buffalos return most of the contributors from that team. They were ranked as a 1-seed by the Selection Committee in its first reveal back in mid-February, but struggled significantly to close the regular season, finishing 1-5.
The Buffaloes do have some impressive wins, including over 1-seed USC, 2-seed Stanford, and 3-seed LSU, but they have not been playing at that level down the stretch this season.
It's almost unheard of for two non-conference teams to play three times in a season, but that's a real possibility for Iowa and Kansas State. Iowa and Kansas State split the first two meetings this season, with the Wildcats winning 65-58 in Iowa City and the Hawkeyes winning the rematch 77-70 in Estero, Florida over Thanksgiving.
The Wildcats ended January ranked #2 in the AP Poll, but have struggled in the past month and a half, largely due to injury issues for star post Ayoka Lee. The Wildcats went just 4-5 in their final nine regular season games, then lost to Texas in the semifinal of the Big 12 Tournament.
Ultimately, this will probably come down to Kansas State or Colorado. Both teams slumped down the stretch of the season, but either is capable of beating almost any team in the country when at their best.
Drake is a dark horse to pull an upset or two. The Bulldogs rank 8th in the nation in points per game (81.5) and are capable of getting hot and scoring a lot of points. They also rank second nationally shooting 59.5% on two-point attempts.
Drake finished the regular season 29-5 overall, and went 19-1 in the Missouri Valley Conference. The Bulldogs have a notable win over 7-seed Iowa State, and scored 90 points on Iowa back in mid-November. Iowa won that game 113-90, but had to shoot the lights out to do so.
With all due respect to Portland, if the Pilots make the Sweet Sixteen it would be a shocking upset. They did beat 4-seed Gonzaga in the West Coast Conference Tournament, but their only other win of note was over Oregon, and the Ducks were terrible this year. Gonzaga also blew out Portland twice in two other meetings this season.
ELITE EIGHT
2-seed UCLA
3-seed LSU
6-seed Louisville
7-seed Creighton
LSU ended up receiving a 3-seed this year because the Tigers' resum isn't particularly impressive. The Tigers' best win is over 4-seed Virginia Tech (82-64). Their next best wins were over 6-seed Tennessee (75-60) and over 7-seed Ole Miss twice (84-73 and 75-67). The Tigers did have two close losses against South Carolina twice (76-70 and 79-72), but also lost against to a First Four team in Auburn (67-62) and a non-Tournament team in Mississippi State (77-73).
Of course, seeding didn't matter too much last year when the Tigers were also a 3-seed and went on to win the NCAA Tournament. Last year's team did only have two regular season losses, though.
This year's LSU team isn't particularly deep. The Tigers only play six or seven players regularly, and everyone in the starting lineup is averaging more than 30 minutes per game. Still, Aneesah Morrow and Angel Reese are a formidable front court duo, and guard Hailey Van Lith has been a star for years now.
One thing to monitor: LSU is 312th nationally in three-point attempts and only converted threes at a 32.1% rate. Iowa might well pack the paint if they face the Tigers again.
UCLA has some big wins this year, including over 1-seed USC (71-64), 2-seed Ohio State (77-71), 3-seed UConn (78-67), and 3-seed Oregon State (65-54). The Bruins also lost six times this year, including twice to USC (73-65 and 80-70 in 2OT), as well as a 20-point loss to 1-seed Stanford (80-60), a 94-81 loss to 5-seed Utah in overtime, a 79-77 loss to Oregon State, and a 85-82 loss to a Washington State team that failed to make the NCAA Tournament.
The Bruins are a good offensive team with four players averaging between 14.7 and 12.1 ppg, led by star center Lauren Betts, who averaged 14.7 points per game on 65.3% shooting from the field. Betts also averaged 9.0 rebounds per game and 2.0 blocks per game.
UCLA was really off on the offensive side of the ball at times this season. In the Stanford loss the Bruins only scored 60 points. In a win over Colorado in late February they only scored 53 points. In their loss to USC in the Pac 12 Tournament semifinal it took the Bruins two overtimes to get to 70 points.
The Bruins have been solid but not exception on defense this season. They have surrendered 60.7 points per game, which ranks 89th nationally. UCLA is still one of the best teams in the country, but occasionally they struggle on both ends of the court.
Teams underestimate Louisville at their peril. The Cardinals and head coach Jeff Walz have made the Elite Eight in five consecutive NCAA Tournaments. The Cardinals weren't a favorite to make it that far last year as a 5-seed, but pulled an upset of Texas in the second round and benefited from playing a lower-seeded team in Ole Miss in the Sweet Sixteen (after Ole Miss had upset 1-seed Stanford themselves).
This year, the Cardinals are an even bigger long shot to advance, as they're likely to face LSU in the second round. Still, Louisville finished the regular season 24-9 and has wins over 2-seed Notre Dame (73-66) and 4-seed Gonzaga (81-70). Walz will have Louisville ready to give LSU everything it has.
No Iowa fan needs a reminder, but just two years ago Creighton knocked off 2-seed Iowa in the second round of the NCAA Tournament. That won't be a game UCLA can take lightly if the Bruins face the Bluejays in the second round.
That said, Creighton doesn't have many big wins this year. The Bluejays' best wins are over 6-seed Nebraska (79-74), 9-seed Michigan State (83-69), and 10-seed Marquette (76-71). Creighton got its seeding mostly because of its 25-5 record. The Bluejays beat the teams they were supposed to but got blown out by 3-seed UConn twice, 94-50 and 73-53.
FINAL FOUR
There are too many potential matchups for Iowa to analyze them in any depth here. The good news for Iowa is that the draw has #1 overall seed South Carolina on the opposite side of the bracket. The Hawkeyes cannot face the Gamecocks any sooner than the National Championship Game.
The top four seeds in the Portland 3 region on Iowa's side of the bracket are 1-seed USC, 2-seed Ohio State, 3-seed UConn, and 4-seed Virginia Tech. All of those teams would pose challenges as a Final Four opponent.
USC won 12 of its final 13 games, including back-to-back wins over 2-seed UCLA and fellow 1-seed Stanford in the Pac-12 Tournament, and boasts the nation's second-leading scorer in electrifying freshman Juju Watkins (27.0 ppg). Ohio State split two meetings with Iowa this season and is one of only four teams to hand the Hawkeyes a loss this year.
UConn lacks depth, but still has considerable talent in the form of Paige Bueckers and Aaliyah Edwards. Bueckers averaged 21.3 ppg, 4.8 rpg, and 3.7 apg, while Edwards averaged 17.8 ppg and 8.3 rpg this season. Iowa beat Virginia Tech 80-76 earlier this year, but the Hokies have a potent 1-2 punch in guard Georgia Amoore (19.2 ppg) and post Elizabeth Kitley (22.8 ppg, 11.4 rpg), though Kitley is dealing with injury concerns that could make VT a long shot to return to the Final Four.
Still, these teams will only become a concern several weeks from now. For now, Iowa's path for a return trip to the Final Four will involve navigating an Albany 2 regional loaded with familiar foes and dangerous opponents.