#3 Iowa wrestling entered the 2025 Big Ten Wrestling Tournament in good form -- or at least so it appeared on paper. The Hawkeyes had gone 14-1 in dual meet competition, including a thrilling 21-16 win over #2 Oklahoma State two weeks prior to Big Tens.
Iowa also had more wrestlers seeded first or second at their respective weights (four) than any team but Penn State (eight). Iowa's seven wrestlers seeded in the top-4 at their respective weights was tied with Nebraska (one 2-seed and six 3-seeds) for second-most among Big Ten squads (behind Penn State's stacked lineup). While Penn State was a heavy favorite to win another Big Ten Championship, Iowa was at least expected to put in a strong showing and be favored to finish 2nd.
Instead, Iowa limped to a 3rd place finish at the Big Ten Tournament with 112.0 points, finishing not just well behind Penn State (181.5 points), but far behind second-place Nebraska (137.0 points) as well. Iowa was much closer to fourth-place Minnesota (108.5 points) and fifth-place Illinois (105.5 points) than they were the teams that dominated the weekend in Evanston.
While Iowa wrestlers entered the Big Ten Tournament with shiny seeds, they generally did not live up to those seeds. Of the 10 Iowa wrestlers who competed at the Big Ten Tournament, only one (Ben Kueter) exceeded his seed, finishing 3rd after being seeded 7th at heavyweight. Mike Caliendo, seeded 2nd at 165 matched his seed and finished runner-up at the weight. The other eight Iowa wrestlers all finished below their seeds, including top seeds Drake Ayala (133) and Stephen Buchanan (197), who lost in finals matches.
The damage started in the quarterfinals, as Iowa went 5-4 on Saturday afternoon to advance half the lineup to the evening semifinals. Two of the losses were "expected" in that they were losses against higher-seeded wrestlers (Joey Cruz at 125, Ben Kueter at 285), but there were two technical upset losses as well, as 4-seeds Jacori Teemer (157) and Gabe Arnold (184) lost to 5-seeds.
The Hawkeyes went 3-2 in the semis, winning three of the four matches in which they were favored, but getting upset at 149 and losing to a higher-seeded wrestler at 174. Iowa sent Drake Ayala, Mike Caliendo, and Stephen Buchanan to Sunday afternoon's championship finals, with reasonable hopes of claiming 1-2 Big Ten championships from that trio. Caliendo was 0-4 against his opponent (1-seed Mitchell Messenbrink of Penn State), but Ayala owned a 4-2 win over his finals opponent (2-seed Lucas Byrd of Illinois) and Buchanan had been a juggernaut all season (21-0 with bonus points in 73% of his wins entering Sunday).
The finals session got off to a bad start for Iowa when Ayala was stuck and pinned early in the second period. After a scoreless first period, Byrd chose down to start the second period. He got a quick escape, then wrapped his arms around Ayala's shoulders and got him into a cow catcher and swiftly took him down directly to the mat. A few seconds later, the pin was official and the match was over.
Of the three Hawkeye wrestlers who lost in the finals on Sunday, Caliendo had arguably the most encouraging performance. He lost 4-1 and his record against Messenbrink fell to 0-5, but this was considerably more competitive than his past efforts, which included a pair of technical fall losses, a 17-9 major decision defeat, and a 12-6 decision loss in their first meeting.
Caliendo's defense was top notch from start to finish on Sunday and he effectively stymied Messenbrink's whirlwind attacks for the most part. He did concede one takedown to Messenbrink, but that's a vast improvement on their previous matches, which were largely takedown clinics in favor of the PSU wrestler. Caliendo wasn't able to get to his own offense, but he attacked from multiple angles and at least made Messenbrink work hard for the victory. He still has a lot of work to do to catch the PSU star, but this was the first match between them that made it seem like Caliendo might actually have a shot at catching him.
Iowa's third and final chance to claim an individual Big Ten title came at 197, where Stephen Buchanan faced 3-seed Jacob Cardenas of Michigan. Buchanan has been very good at overwhelming and wearing down opponents this season, even if it sometimes takes until the third period to break things open.
He was never able to find a platform for success against Cardenas, though, as he couldn't penetrate Cardenas' defense to attack his legs and he wasn't able to effectively utilize his usually-lethal top game to ride and tilt Cardenas either. Buchanan's own defense was mostly on point, but Cardenas was able to seize upon one opening in the first period and score what ended up being the match-winning takedown in the 4-2 loss.
The losses by Ayala, Caliendo, and Buchanan had one common theme: a decided lack of offense from the Iowa wrestler. They combined to score three points in three finals matches, all via escape or stalling points. None of them scored a takedown in their matches.
That was a consistent theme in Iowa's losses throughout the tournament as well, as Teemer, Arnold, Kyle Parco (149), and Patrick Kennedy (174) all suffered at least one loss in which they were unable to finish any shots. Even in wins, it was sometimes difficult for Iowa wrestlers to finish attacks; Ben Kueter was one of the few bright spots for the Hawkeyes all weekend, finishing 3rd after being seeded 7th, but he had to grind out 2-0 and 2-1 wins in his final two consolation bracket matches to earn wins via escape points and riding time points. Credit him for having the grit to win those matches in that fashion and for showing some strong riding ability, but it is very, very hard to win matches consistently without scoring takedowns.
Another consistent theme? Losing to opponents that Iowa wrestlers had defeated earlier in the season. This was most notable at the133 final, where Ayala lost to Byrd after beating him 4-2 in the dual meet. But Ayala was far from the only example; Parco lost a semifinal match to an opponent (Nebraska's Ridge Lovett) that he had a 3-0 lifetime record against, while Teemer lost a quarterfinal match to Minnesota's Tommy Askey after beating him in the dual a few weeks earlier. Gabe Arnold lost to not one but two opponents he'd beaten in dual meets this season in Maryland's Jaxon Smith and Illinois' Edmond Ruth.
That's not to say that you should never lose to an opponent after you beat them once -- that would obviously be a ludicrous standard to hold. All of the opponents who avenged prior losses to Iowa wrestlers are very good wrestlers in their own right; it's certainly not weird for opponents of common ability to split results.
Still, it's striking when no Iowa wrestlers managed to avenge prior losses with wins of their own while losing multiple rematches of matches they won previously; that speaks to successful adjustments that opponents are making, while Iowa is failing to counter those adjustments themselves.
More concerning is the fact that a performance like this isn't anything new. Third-place is actually a slight improvement on last year's fourth-place finish at the Big Ten Tournament. It's also the second-straight season that Iowa hasn't had an individual champion; no Hawkeye has won a Big Ten championship since Spencer Lee and Real Woods did so in 2023.
The NCAA Tournament in Philadelphia looms in 10 days and offers a chance for a reset. Unfortunately, it's hard to see much reason for optimism for a better finish at NCAAs; these Big Ten results are going to lead to Iowa wrestlers receiving worse seeds and more difficult brackets than they would have with a more potent performance at this year's Big Ten Tournament. The same flaws that sent Iowa to a distant third-place finish at the Big Ten Tournament will still be present at the NCAA Tournament, including persistent struggles to score from neutral, insufficient quantity and quality of attacks, and an inability to make effective matchup adjustments, among others.
Maybe this weekend's results at the Big Ten Tournament in Evanston will light a fire under head coach Tom Brands, his staff, and the Iowa lineup. If not, there's a very good chance that I'll be writing a very similar post mortem to this after the NCAA Tournament as well.
