Millers Fearless 2002 Iowa Football Prediction

Prediction time! I love this time of year and I love the fact that my picks are ‘on the record’. That way, if I am right on (like I was last year through the first 10 games, a perfect 10 for 10 before the loss at Ames), I can point that out.

However, there is a downside with having your predictions read by tens of thousands of rabid Iowa fans: They remember if you are wrong, like last year’s basketball pre-season predictions. Fortunately for me, the rest of America was wrong as well. But I digress.

Last year on the old HN.com, Kakert and I each predicted a seven win regular season. We missed it by one game. As you have read, Kakert accurately predicted Iowa would be headed to the Alamo Bowl. I am not into pinning myself down to that degree, as I really do not spend much time analyzing the bowl scenario until it gets here. Kakert might say that I am making excuses!

In 2000, I had the Hawks finishing 4-8 and they went 3-9. Last year, I had them at 7-4 in the regular season and they went 6-5. So I have been optimistic by one win for two seasons in a row. I guess that you could say those were the Iowa State games!

So without further adieu, I throw my hat into the 2002 Football Prediction arena.

Iowa v Akron: Iowa is going to start the 2002 football season with a bang and should challenge the 50-point barrier in the home opener, just as they did in the 2001 home opener when they beat Kent State 51-0. They return just four starters on offense and 10 overall. They beat Kent State 14-10 last year and lost by three to Miami of Ohio. IOWA

Iowa at Miami (OH): I think this is going to be a very tough game and I would be totally shocked if Iowa won this game by more than three touchdowns. Miami returns 13 starters and the core of their passing attack. Sensational sophomore Ben Roethlisberger is back, as are his top receiving targets as Kakert mentioned. They also return 7 of their top 10 OL’s and 6 of their top 8 DL’s from 2001. Phil Steele feels that the Red Hawks might have the best LB corps in the Mid American Conference. They lose their leading rusher from one year ago but some of their younger players saw some action due to the starter (Little) being injured.

Last year, Miami tried to take away Iowa’s running game by playing their LB’s closer to the line. Iowa still gained more than 140 yards on the ground but they beat Miami through the air to the tune of 270 yards. They also had a very difficult time running their spread offense in the first half as Iowa led 24-0 at the break. Although Iowa’s defensive line will be green this year, I feel that the Hawkeyes athleticism at DE and at the LB position should really make it hard for Miami again in 2002. If Iowa can win by more than three touchdowns, good days are ahead. This is a perfect game for Iowa to have before the Big Ten schedule: A difficult but winnable road game. If Iowa is back as so many of the Hawkeye faithful believe they are, a win is a must. A loss would be devastating. IOWA

Iowa v Iowa State: The Cyclones have beaten the Hawkeyes four straight times after Iowa had beaten the Cyclones 15 games in a row. There is not one player or coach on the Iowa State team who is intimidated by Iowa and to a man they feel they will make it five years in a row. Iowa State will have already faced Florida State prior to coming to Kinnick Stadium. The pressure is clearly on Iowa.

ISU has Seneca Wallace. I guess that is a sentence and if not, it says enough. He is extremely accurate and elusive and Iowa needs to maintain him. Iowa State will have solid starters at WR But just five of their top 10 OL return and they lose three starters from last year. They also have to replace Ennis Haywood, but they have the talent in house to be successful. So much will depend on their offensive line.

Their defense came along as the season progressed. They were young and inexperienced to start the year, which is why I really liked Iowa to beat them if the game had been played in September as opposed to November. This year, they return seven starters and will be as solid if not better at DL, LB and in the secondary.

I may be wrong and hope that I am, but until I see the Iowa defensive front line prove that they are up to the task, I am going to go with the trend. Forgive me, Iowa fans: IOWA STATE

Iowa v Utah State: As I said in my overview from last week, Utah State has a great passer in Jose Fuentes. He has passed for nearly 6,000 yards in two years under center. But that is about the only problem Iowa will have. Their defense is porous to say the least and teams were able to do anything they wanted to against the Aggies in 2001. Iowa should win easily. IOWA

Iowa at Penn State: The Hawkeyes will ride a two game win streak against the Nittany Lions as they travel to Happy Valley. Penn State has had back to back losing seasons, marking just the second and third time that has happened in the Paterno era and the first back to back losing seasons since Hoover was President.

The good news for the Blue and White faithful is that they return 15 starters and they should be more like the Penn State teams of the last 20 years. Their defense has let them down in recent years and their offense has not looked cohesive. Who knows how well Penn State will fare in the B10 this year, but I think they will be geeked to greet the Hawkeyes and start their Big Ten season out with a bang in front of 107,000 screaming fans. PENN STATE

Iowa v Purdue: This game is Iowa’s homecoming and it will also be a sort of homecoming (apologies to U2). Des Moines native Kyle Orton should be the starter this season for the Boilermakers, as Brandon Hance transferred closer to his home in Southern California.

Orton should benefit from the offensive line which returns 9 of its top 10 from 2001. Senior running back Montrell Lowe will likely rush for 1,000 yards in 2002 as well. Purdue returns 16 starters in all (eight on each side of the line of scrimmage) and their defense was among the best in the Big Ten last year. Look for them to be ranked near the top in 2002.

Iowa mustered just 33 yards rushing against Purdue in West Lafayette last year, but the Boilers lose two of their best up front. However, head coach Joe Tiller has the program at a point where they should be able to reload. Purdue could be soft on the outside, so Brad Banks will really have to pressure the Purdue secondary.

I expect another close game but not an offensive shootout. This game, along with the Wisconsin and Iowa State games, are very difficult to predict and I see all three contests as ‘crossroads’ for the 2002 season. If Iowa is to have a great year, they need to win two of those three. I feel that Iowa will have a happy homecoming, but it is almost too close to call. IOWA

Iowa v Michigan State: The Hawkeyes upset the Spartans in Iowa City in 2000 to get Kirk Ferentz his first Big Ten victory. Iowa lost a three-point contest in East Lansing last year, but it was not really that close.

Michigan State may be the most dangerous team in the Big Ten on offense, even though they lose TJ Duckett. However, all 10 of Sparty’s OL return from last year which could give MSU a shot at a league title. They allowed 44 sacks in 2001 and that number should fall dramatically, just like what happened to Iowa from 2000 to 2001. They will give QB Jeff Smoker more time in the pocket, which is a very bad thing for defenses around the league.

WR Charles Rogers will also be back and he could be the best receiver in the nation. At least Herb Haygood will not be around to torment Iowa, as he caught nine passes for 119 yards against Iowa last year and returned a kickoff 100-yards for another score.

On defense, the Spartans are not very big along the front line, a factor which could be exploited by the Iowa offensive line. But that might be the only area where they are not very good. If Iowa’s secondary is as good as some are projecting them to be, we could have a great game on our hands. This is also the year where MSU head coach Bobby Williams has to show that he has the mettle to get it done, as he has had the talent. MICHGAN STATE

Iowa at Indiana: I think that Miami of Ohio will give Iowa twice the challenge that Indiana will offer up. They will have less than 70 scholarship players. I don’t feel it’s even worth aggravating my wrists to comment on this game any further. IOWA

Iowa at Michigan: Going to the Big House is never an easy task. The challenge is compounded this year as Michigan returns 15 starters from their ‘disappointing’ 8-4 season of a year ago. They should be more settled at the QB position and their offensive line brings back 7 of its top 10 2001 performers. WR is a question mark as Marquise Walker is gone, leaving Butler and Bellamy to step it up. Butler caught a 77-yard pass against Chigoze Ejiasi last year after Matt Stockdale went down for the season with a leg injury in the first half.

Michigan had the top rated defense in the league last year and they were among the best in the nation. The defensive line should be as good if not better in 2002, but their linebacking corps will not be as solid. Their defensive backfield should be among the nations best.

While there are too many concerns to predict a national title, to beat Michigan in Ann Arbor means you have to play mistake free football. Iowa caught QB John Navarre on a horrible day last year, as he was just 16 for 38 with two INT’s. Iowa also threw 2 INT’s last year but their 10 penalties and the loss of Stockdale ended their upset bid.

Asking Iowa to pull off the upset in front of 109,000 Wolverine fans is a bit much. MICHIGAN

Iowa v Wisconsin: Iowa should have beaten the Badgers in Madison last year, but they gave the game away in several areas. A Ladell Betts fumble deep in Iowa territory led to an easy Badger score and a Kyle McCann fumble at the Wisconsin 2 yard line after having rushed for a first down took away another seven points. Iowa also abandoned its successful running game in the fourth quarter and lost by six points.

Wisconsin returns the league’s leading rusher in Anthony Davis. He will only be a sophomore in 2002 and the Badger offense should be very good if injured WR Lee Evans can make a full recovery from his off-season knee injury. QB Brooks Bollinger and Evans lit up the Hawkeye secondary last year, with Benny Sapp guarding Evans most of the time. Evans had 7 catches for 175 yards.

All 10 offensive linemen return for Wisconsin and they were among the best units in the league last year.

The Badgers main concern is defense, where just three starters return. Their defensive line and linebacker units will be weaker than last year, but their secondary should be salty. Iowa returns 9 of its top 10 OL, so the Hawkeyes will want to pound out the yards on the ground and keep the Wisconsin offense off the field.

This is a game that could come down to special teams. Nate Kaeding is very solid, but punter David Bradley struggled in 2001. Wisconsin has a sold FG kicker and their punter averaged 41.6 yards per punt last year as a true freshman. Until Iowa’s special teams prove up to the challenge, they will continue to lose the close games. WISCONSIN

Iowa v Northwestern: The Hawkeyes rolled over Northwestern in 2001 and the Wildcats return just 10 starters (4 offense and 6 defense). Gone are QB Zak Kustok and RB Damien Anderson and their offensive line is less experienced than it was a year ago.

Iowa has had a lot of success against ‘spread’ offenses and that trend should continue as the Hawkeyes will beat the ‘Mildcats’ again in 2002. IOWA

Iowa at Minnesota: You can always throw out the record books when the Gophers and the Hawkeyes hook up in football. There has been too many seasons where Minnesota has sent Iowa into a bowl game with a stinging loss when they had no business beating Iowa. Typically, this has happened in Minneapolis and Iowa will be playing in the Homer Dome again this year.

QB Asad Abdul-Khaliq is back and he is very dangerous. Gone is RB Tellis Redmon who had back-to-back 1,000+ yard rushing seasons for Minnesota. He is just the sixth RB to top the century mark as a Gopher. IF, and this is a big IF, RB Thomas Tapeh Jr. is healthy, the Gophers might not miss a beat. But he has been injured during his first two seasons, opening the door for Redmon.

They return 8 starters on defense, but Iowa gained nearly 500 yards of total offense against Minnesota in 2001. This should be a hard fought battle as is always the case, but I think Floyd will be traveling south for the winter again in 2002. IOWA

When the smoke clears, I have Iowa going 7-5 in 2002 and heading to another bowl game. As I said before, I feel there are at least three very critical games that could turn the season around for Iowa and help them take another step forward. Purdue, Iowa State and Wisconsin are the key games on the 2002 schedule. All three games are winnable, but I am not convinced that Iowa’s defensive line is up to the challenge.

Too many unproven players are going to have to play at a very high level for Iowa to make the next step. I am not saying they can not take those steps in 2002, but I just see too many ‘best case scenarios’ having to come to fruition for Iowa to get to the 9 win level. Eight wins is attainable, but this year, I will err to the conservative.

It should be a fun and exciting year no matter what, as every game on the schedule appears winnable, save the trip to Ann Arbor.

Here are a few more predictions:

Aaron Greving rushes for more yards in a season that Ladell Betts ever did while at Iowa.

Ed Hinkel becomes a fan favorite right from the start and breaks Kahlil Hill's freshman record of 35 catches in a season.

Bob Sanders will lead the team in tackles for the second straight year.

Iowa's special team units are better in 2002 than 2001 with regards to coverage.

Iowa will allow 20 sacks or less.

Iowa will rush for more than 2,000 net yards.

A good time will be had by all.