WHO: 3-seed LSU Tigers (33-2 overall, 15-1 SEC)
WHEN: Sunday April 2 at 2:30 PM CT
WHERE: American Airlines Arena (Dallas, Texas)
TV: ABC
RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network | Sirius/XM 109 or 196
ONLINE: www.espn.com/watch
MOBILE: www.espn.com/app
LINE: Iowa -3
Everyone knows about the Miracle on Ice. What many may not remember is that the United States didn’t win the gold medal by beating the Soviet Union on that fateful February night. It still needed to beat Finland to secure the gold medal.
But beating Finland proved difficult in its own respect. After the second period, Team USA trailed 2-1. In the locker room, famed head coach Herb Brooks said: “If you lose this game, you’ll take it to your graves.” The US responded, dominating the third period and winning 4-2.
Iowa’s run of beating Indiana, winning the Big Ten Tournament, and making the National Championship Game has been magical. The Hawkeyes' upset victory over South Carolina was remarkable. But the job’s not done. And the players know that.
“We didn’t come this far just to play in the national championship game,” Caitlin Clark said in the postgame press conference. “We’re here to win it. We’re here to hoist the trophy. We’re here to cut down another championship net.”
Let’s take a look at Iowa’s opponent in the National Championship Game, the LSU Tigers.
Familiar Faces
Iowa has faced LSU coach Kim Mulkey before. Before moving to LSU, Mulkey spent 21 seasons at Baylor. In that time, she amassed 632 wins and 3 national championships. Her last national title came in 2019. On that particular run, her Baylor Bears faced Iowa in the Elite Eight.
Unfortunately for Iowa, that game didn’t go well. Baylor had multiple WNBA players on its team, and the Bears dominated the Hawks 85-53.
Iowa has also faced LSU star Angel Reese before. Reese played the first two years of her career at Maryland. For much of Reese’s freshman year, she was injured. When she did return, she mainly played off the bench for a very good Maryland team. In two games against Iowa that year, she averaged 7 points and 4.5 rebounds in an average of 14.5 minutes. Decent off the bench, but far from spectacular.
In Reese’s sophomore season, she broke out in a big way. Iowa only played Maryland once last season, but in that game, Reese played 33 minutes, scoring 25 points and grabbing 13 rebounds.
The good news for Iowa is that Maryland played a lot of 5-out in that game. Iowa had to match Reese with Monika Czinano in space, and that just didn’t work. For LSU, Reese will spend more time in and around the block. That poses its own set of challenges, but Iowa faced similar challenges last night against South Carolina and won.
The Schedule
LSU's season stats are undeniably gaudy. The Tigers rank 4th nationally in scoring offense (81.8 ppg) and 15th nationally in field goal percentage (46%). LSU gets to the free throw line often (24 trips per game, on average), but doesn't shoot particularly well there (69.7%, 223rd). On defense, LSU ranks 24th in scoring defense, holding opponents to 56.7 ppg (24th), and ranking 11th nationally in field goal percentage defense (35.4%).
But overall statistics may not paint the clearest picture when it comes to LSU, because the Tigers' regular season schedule was not very strong. In the regular season and SEC Tournament, the only ranked teams LSU played were South Carolina and Tennessee, going 1-2 in those games.
Still, at this point, we know LSU is an elite team. They beat 1-seed Virginia Tech, 2-seed Utah, 6-seed Michigan, and a Miami team that upset Indiana to get here. But their metrics themselves are likely boosted somewhat by that weak schedule.
LSU’s Best Players
6’3" forward Angel Reese -- 23.3 ppg, 15.6 rpg, 1.8 spg, 1.6 bpg, 53.1% 2FG
Reese doesn’t have the size of South Carolina’s Aliyah Boston or Kamilla Cardoso, but she is more athletic than either and will likely have just as significant of an impact on the offensive glass. Reese has averaged 6.5 offensive rebounds per game this season, and may approach or exceed that number in this game. She’s going to be Iowa’s biggest challenge on Sunday.
That said, Reese isn’t unstoppable. She grabs a lot of rebounds, but she doesn’t have the finishing touch around the basket of a Monika Czinano or Mackenzie Holmes. If Iowa can contest her shots and her putbacks, the Hawkeyes can overcome her just like they did South Carolina's bigs on Friday night.
5’6" guard Alexis Morris -- 15.2 ppg, 4.0 apg, 2.9 rpg, 1.9 spg, 47.6% 2FG, 32.9% 3FG
Morris is reminiscent of South Carolina’s Zia Cooke. She takes a lot of shots per game (13). She likes shooting from 2-point range, but can also shoot okay from long distance. And she hits the big shots LSU needs in big moments. The good news for Iowa is that Gabbie Marshall has played Cooke already, and has been great defensively in Iowa’s post-season run. Marshall will also have a few inches on Morris, which should help to contest shots.
5’10" guard Flau’jae Johnson -- 11.0 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 46.7% 2FG, 33.3% from 3FG
Johnson gives LSU something that South Carolina didn’t have: a second scoring guard. Johnson is just a freshman, but she shoots reasonably well on both 2-point field goals and 3-point tries, while also contributing on the glass. I don’t think Iowa will sag off her dramatically and dare her to shoot like the Iowa defenders did against South Carolina’s Raven Johnson, but she will likely be the player Kate Martin guards if Iowa goes back to its triangle-and-two defense. Johnson will also spend a lot of the game trying to slow down Clark on defense.
LSU Overall
“I feel like we’re playing South Carolina again, but with a little bit better shooters,” Iowa coach Lisa Bluder said of LSU at Saturday’s press conference.
She’s right. LSU has an elite scoring post, a very good scoring guard, and will look to dominate the offensive boards. Their three-point rate ranks 350th nationally — fewer than 20% of their shots come from behind the arc.
On LSU’s side of the court, this game will likely be won or lost in the paint. The Tigers are an elite rebounding team, with the second-best rebounding margin in the nation (+16 per game), behind only South Carolina. LSU ranks third in offensive rebounds per game, grabbing around 17 of their own misses every game.
Defensively, LSU’s steal rate ranks 32nd nationally and its block rate ranks 9th. The Tigers aren’t the most disruptive team Iowa has faced this season, but they can generate turnovers if Iowa doesn’t take care of the ball. Iowa will need to be as focused on ball security as it was in the South Carolina game.
Key to the Game
For Caitlin Clark to finish what she started. Clark has been on a run unmatched in women’s college basketball with her 40-point triple-double against Louisville in the Elite Eight and her 41-point game against South Carolina in the Final Four.
Even more impressive, she didn’t shoot well from three in the South Carolina game. Instead, she repeatedly beat very good defenders off the dribble to get to the basket. Mulkey will have a plan to contain Clark, but so did Louisville coach Jeff Walz and South Carolina coach Dawn Staley. If Clark's star can shine brightly one more time, it won’t matter.
