#2 IOWA HAWKEYES (23-7) vs #15 ILLINOIS STATE REDBIRDS (19-13)
INFO: 3:00pm on ESPN
The Hawkeyes begin their NCAA Tournament at Carver-Hawkeye Arena, where they will welcome the #15 seeded Missouri Valley Conference Champion Illinois State Redbirds. ISU defeated Loyola Chicago, top seeded Southern Illinois and Northern Iowa on the way to the conference tournament title and the automatic bid to the tournament.
On the season, the Redbirds are 19-13, including 4-6 against Q1/2 teams and 5-6 against Q3 teams. They went 1-4 against teams in the tournament field and 3-5 against opponents that the Hawkeyes faced. Two of those wins were Evansville, as well as a win over UNI in the MVC Title game.
“We are absolutely thrilled to be here. Just such an incredible accomplishment for our program, said Redbird Head Coach Kristen Gillespie. “I've said this a lot the past couple of days. It's just something that you talk about with your team as the ultimate goal.”
Iowa was able to ride a seven-game win streak to help them move up to a #2 seed. While the #2 seed came as a bit of surprise to many, including Coach Lisa Bluder, Caitlin Clark said she was not surprised.
“Very deserving with how we’ve been playing lately,” said Clark. “I wasn’t surprised, I had a feeling they were going to bump us to a two (seed). I’m very happy with that and I think we’ve really earned it over the past few weeks with the ranked teams that we’ve beaten.”
The Hawkeyes defeated Indiana three times, as well as Michigan and Nebraska, en route to a share of the Big Ten Regular Season Title and a Big Ten Tournament Title.
“I'm glad to be in the NCAA Tournament again. I'm thrilled that it's here in Iowa City in Carver-Hawkeye Arena. Our Hawk fans are amazing, selling this place out,” said Coach Lisa Bluder. “The lights are on and we’re dancing and we’re having fun.”
THE NUMBERS – OFFENSE
IOWA: 84.5 points (2nd), 50.5% FG (1st), 35.1% 3pt (32nd), 84.1% FT (1st), 38.4 rebounds (103rd), 14.9 TO (125th)
ILLINOIS ST: 65.2 points (157th), 44.3% FG (32nd), 34.2% 3pt (46th), 75.6% FT (41st), 33.2 rebounds (319th), 13.4 TO (51st)
THE NUMBERS – DEFENSE
IOWA: 70.8 points (308th), 39.4% FG (154th), 30.6% 3pt (171st), +3.7 rebounding margin (87th), 14.0 TO (286th)
ILLINOIS ST: 62.8 points (162nd), 40.1% FG (192nd), 32.5% 3pt (280th), +0.5 rebounding margin (166th), 13.8 TO (295th)
PROJECTED STARTERS
IOWA
PG Caitlin Clark – 27.4 points, 8.1 rebounds, 7.9 assists, 45.6% FG, 33.3% 3pt
G Kate Martin – 7.3 points, 4.9 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 46.3% FG
G Gabbie Marshall – 6.6 points, 39.0% 3pt – best defender, 46 steals
F McKenna Warnock – 11.4 points, 6.6 rebounds, 52.6% FG, 42.3% 3pt
C Monika Czinano – 21.1 points, 6.1 rebounds, 67.8% FG
ILLINOIS STATE
G Juliunn Redmond – 17.6 points, 4.5 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 48.9% FG, 81.5% FT
G Mary Crompton – 9.4 points, 37.4% 3pt, 38.3% FG, 83.3% FT
G Maya Wong – 8.6 points, 3.0 assists, 42.9% FG, 83.5% FT
F Kate Bullman – 4.4 points, 5.3 rebounds, 36.9% FG
F DeAnna Wilson – 13.1 points, 7.7 rebounds, 47.6% FG
BENCH
G Kayel Newland – 3.1 points, 2.0 rebounds, 48.6% FG, 15.7 minutes
G Kenzie Bowers – 2.8 points, 2.5 rebounds, 15.6 minutes
F Jasmine McGinnis-Taylor – 3.8 points, 61.5% FG, 8.5 minutes
BREAKDOWN
The #2 seed is 108-0 all-time against the #15 seed in the NCAA Women’s Tournament, but the Hawkeyes know that they can’t overlook any game.
“We are fortunate enough to play a decent amount of MVC teams normally with Drake and UNI,” said Monika Czinano “We know how good those teams are, that conference is, and how we can't take it lightly.”
G Juliunn Redmond is most talented player on the Redbirds, earning a First Team All-MVC selection, while leading the team in points per game (17.6) and assists (98). She is the type of player that can keep Illinois State in a game, as she has scored 20+ points in 12 games, including three 30+ point outputs.
Redmond also has the ability to draw fouls and get to the line to score points when the offense is not producing. The team in general, is very good at getting to the line, as the Redbirds rank #61 in free throw attempts. The Hawkeyes will have to avoid foul trouble and allowing Illinois State to stay in it at the foul line.
G Mary Crompton is the only big threat from behind the arc, as she averages six 3pt attempts a game and shoots it at 37.4%. No one else on the team averages more than two attempts per game. Caitlin Clark is familiar with Crompton, as they were teammates on the All-Iowa Attack AAU team. The other guard is Maya Wong, who contributes 8.6 points per game, including 12 games in double figures.
F DeAnna Wilson will likely be tasked with guarding Monika Czinano in the post and the All MVC selection will have her hands full. On the season, Wilson is averaging 13.1 points and 7.7 rebounds per game, while shooting 47.6% from the floor. F Kate Bullman (4.4 points) and F Jasmine McGinnis-Taylor (3.8 points) will also help the efforts in the paint.
The Redbirds play the exact opposite style of play compared to the Hawkeyes. They rank 321st in pace of play, while Iowa is on the other end of the spectrum, ranking 17th in the country. That is a difference of nearly ten possessions per game. Illinois State averages 52.9 shots per game, while Iowa averages 61.4. Throughout the season, Coach Lisa Bluder has mentioned that their fast pace and transition play wears teams down if they are not used to running the floor for 40 straight minutes. That looks like it could be the case in this matchup.
“We will absolutely get out and run because that's us. We're not going to change anything,” said Bluder. “Are they going to try to slow it down? Well, you can try to slow it down on the offensive end, but it's pretty hard to slow it down on the defensive end when we have the ball in our hands.”
The Redbirds only have 7 players that play 10+ minutes a game and that could become a factor. If Iowa can control the pace of the game, they will likely have an overwhelming advantage. Another stat that tips in the Hawkeyes favor is defense rating. Illinois State rates 258th, allowing 94.8 points per 100 opponent possessions, while the Hawkeyes rank 1st in offensive rating, scoring 111.0 points per 100 possessions.
“They play exclusively player to player defense. I know they're going to bring help on Monika, but they just really do a good job. Juju (Redmond) does a great job of getting out and denying (the ball). I'm sure she's going to be on Caitlin,” said Bluder.
“We haven't played against a player like Caitlin Clark…I don't think there's a defense that can shut her down, but it's going to be by committee. We're going to have to play phenomenal team defense,” said Coach Gillespie. “Monika is an unbelievable post player. Probably the best post player we've faced.”
Illinois State has not seen a team like the Hawkeyes all season and Iowa just has too many weapons, starting with NPOY candidate Caitlin Clark. Her ability to create shots from anywhere on the floor, as well as dish to her teammates for baskets is what makes her so hard to guard. Monika Czinano has been almost unstoppable over the last month, shooting nearly 80% and Kate Martin has been playing the best basketball over her career as of late. Add in McKenna Warnock and Gabbie Marshall, as well as Taiwo, Feuerbach and O’Grady off the bench and it is just too many weapons to stop.
Final Prediction
If the Hawkeyes can get out early and run the Redbirds, this game could be in favor of Iowa quickly. While Illinois State was able to make a run in the MVC, Iowa has been playing like one of the best teams in the nation. Czinano has been unstoppable in the post, while Kate Martin has been playing the ball of her career. Add in the best player in women’s basketball, Caitlin Clark, not to mention Warnock, Marshall and some bench options, Iowa should be able to roll at home in the tournament opener. Iowa 92 Illinois State 71
