On a day where most fans expected Iowa to take care of business and cruise to the second seed in the Big Ten Tournament, Fred Hoiberg and his Nebraska Cornhuskers decided instead to be ungracious guests.
The Huskers shot 14-for-26 from deep in the game, including 8-for-12 in the second half, and Nebraska came away with the stunning 81-77 upset on Senior Day at Carver-Hawkeye Arena.
Patrick McCaffery scored 23 points, including a career-best 6-for-10 from deep, but like the rest of the team he went cold in the second half, and nobody in black and gold stepped up with a hot hand.
RECAP
Nebraska opened the game on a quick 18-9 run, boosted by a hot start from deep. While Iowa fought back in short order, taking its first lead before 10 minutes were gone in the game, the Huskers had already established the confidence in their jumper they'd need to stick around in this game.
And for the most part, sticking around is exactly what Nebraska did. Iowa led for the majority of game time, with its last go-ahead basket coming with 6:12 left as Kris Murray laid in a basket off a Tony Perkins steal to make the score 71-70.
That Murray basket ended up being Iowa's last made field goal of the game.
Nebraska made a three-pointer off a broken play on the ensuing possession to take a 73-71 lead, and while Iowa was able to hold serve by converting free throws on the next couple possessions, C.J. Wilcher scored five straight Husker points to give Nebraska an 80-75 lead with 2:33 to go, and Iowa never took so much as a game-tying shot for the remainder of the game.
Making matters worse, Iowa was just a pedestrian 9-for-15 from the free throw line in the second half, including the front end of the Hawkeyes' only one-and-one of the half and two misses by Filip Rebraca in a three-point game with 1:15 to go. Those lost points added up at the worst time, and Nebraska finished off the win with relatively little drama.
BOX SCORIN'
Murray finished with 22 points, 7 rebounds and 4 assists — a perfectly suitable performance on paper — but it came with 10 missed three-pointers on 13 attempts. Murray missed more three-pointers in the second half than Nebraska did as a team, and in a game where the Huskers always seemed to have an answer, poor shooting quickly became the wrong question for the Hawkeyes to ask.
On that note, Payton Sandfort was 2-for-9 from deep on the game, while Connor McCaffery was 1-for-4. Together, they matched Murray's 3-for-13 performance, and that kind of power outage is enough to imperil Iowa in most games — especially with Nebraska comfortably over 50% in response.
Patrick McCaffery reintroduced himself to the Hawkeye offense with five first-half three pointers, finishing with 23 points (one off his career high, set against Wisconsin in December). His 25 minutes were the most among Hawkeye bench players, tied for fourth overall on the team, and while Iowa's not always getting six threes a game out of its 6'9" forward, it's good to see him snap out of the doldrums of late.
Tony Perkins had a typically active day on defense, with three steals of the 15 turnovers the Hawkeyes forced. But Perkins was oddly silent on offense during most half-court sets, finishing with just six points on 3-for-6 shooting, as well as four rebounds and four assists. Perkins has found ways to take control of the ballgame in the last few weeks, but that extra gear was largely missing on Sunday.
HANGING AROUND, HANGING AROUND
Credit also has to go to Nebraska for never letting Iowa extend the lead to a point of comfort in the second half. The Huskers had 11 possessions in the second half while trailing by four or more points; they converted on all but two of them.
43-39, 19:41: C.J. Wilcher 3-pointer
47-42, 17:27: Jamarques Lawrence 3-pointer
49-45, 16:43: Derrick Walker missed layup
49-45, 16:16: Jamarques Lawrence 3-pointer
56-51, 13:10: Wilhelm Breidenbach layup
58-53, 12:44: Sam Greisel layup
59-55, 12:13: C.J. Wilcher turnover
62-55, 11:43: Sam Hoiberg 3-pointer
62-58, 10:45: Derrick Walker layup
64-60, 9:51: Wilhelm Breidenbach 3-pointer
67-63, 8:43: Derrick Walker 2-for-2 free throws
That's 24 points in 11 high-leverage possessions, and while part of that is just the Huskers making big shots when they needed them, part of it is also an Iowa defense that has had a casual relationship with perimeter defense all year long.
With its regular season complete, Iowa allowed 40.1% shooting from deep in conference play, currently last in the Big Ten. Basement-dweller Minnesota is the only team close at 39.7%, with a game against Wisconsin yet to play. It's Iowa's worst performance in three-point defense since the dreadful 2017-18 season, and should be a major priority for improvement during the offseason.
THURSDAY?
Remarkably, Iowa is still alive for a double-bye in the Big Ten Tournament, even at 11-9. In fact, Iowa is locked into either the 4- or 5-seed, with the only relevant result remaining being Rutgers-Northwestern.
Hawkeye fans should be pulling hard for Rutgers here. Northwestern needs a win to finish ahead of the Hawkeyes at 12-8; with the Michigan-Indiana winner also due to finish at 12-8 and Michigan State locked into its 11-8 finish, Iowa simply cannot afford to have any more teams finish with 12 Big Ten wins.
Normally, the prospect of a 5-seed adding the winner of the 12-13 first-round game to its conference tournament slate would feel like little more than a formality. But with the likes of Ohio State, Wisconsin and yes, Nebraska liable to finish in that space, there's real reason for concern as Iowa went 1-5 against that trio this season.
NEXT UP
Again: Iowa's conference tourney fate is still undetermined. There are only two scenarios, though:
If Northwestern wins, Iowa will play its first Big Ten Tournament game on Thursday, March 9, against the winner of the 12/13 game.
If Rutgers wins, Iowa will play its first Big Ten Tournament game on Friday, March 10, against the winner of the aforementioned game between the 5-seed and the 12/13 team.
Both games will be televised on the Big Ten Network, and both are scheduled to start at approximately 1:30 PM CT — or, officially, 25 minutes after the conclusion of each day's 11 AM game.
