No. 2 Indiana 87, No. 5 Iowa 78: Not Enough

In the 2018 NCAA Tournament, the four #1 seeds had a combined six losses at the start of the Tournament. The top #2 seed was 31-1.

The reason for those stellar records was simple: for most of women’s college basketball history, the top few teams have been significantly better than everyone else. Even teams ranked towards the back of the Top 25 would be heavy underdogs against the top teams in the country.

This year, though, is different. #1 South Carolina is clearly better than most teams, but everyone else really isn’t.

#3 LSU is undefeated, but its record is somewhat deceiving. The Tigers haven’t played a currently-ranked team all season, and the only one they will play is South Carolina. Because of LSU’s weak schedule, it is unlikely to be a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament without beating the Gamecocks (or playing them extremely close).

#4 UConn and #6 Stanford each received their third loss of the season to unranked teams in the past week, and are playing shakily enough right now that another loss or two is entirely possible.

Then there’s #2 Indiana. The Hoosiers are 22-1 and have beaten a number of good teams. But including tonight’s game, they play 4 Top 15 teams in their last 5 games.

At 19-4, Iowa doesn’t look like a #1 seed of old. Yet because Iowa has accumulated a number of Top 25 wins, and because the top teams in the country are down compared to where they were five years ago, Iowa is very much in play for a #1 seed.

In ESPN’s Bracketology update released on Tuesday, Charlie Crème had Iowa at #5 overall and said the Hawks were extremely close to being the last #1 seed. He gave Stanford a slight nod. Since that update, 1-seed UConn lost to an unranked Marquette.

A loss at #2 Indiana shouldn’t hurt Iowa’s resume much. That’s the expected outcome, frankly. But with a win… things would get really interesting. Iowa would almost certainly project as a #1 seed with a win over Indiana, and the Hawks would have an argument to slot in as high as #2 overall.

Would Iowa fall for the first time in over a month, or could the Hawkeyes steal one more major road win and propel the program to a level not seen since the C. Vivian Stringer era nearly 30 years ago?

Iowa started the game with three straight turnovers, and Indiana jumped out to a 5-0 lead. Then Iowa’s offense caught fire. Caitlin Clark hit a pair of threes, Gabbie Marshall added another, and suddenly Iowa was rolling. When Clark hit McKenna Warnock on a full court home run pass for a layup, Indiana called timeout with Iowa leading 13-7.

After the timeout, Indiana settled down and got some stops defensively. Indiana’s offense got going again at the slower pace and the Hoosiers tied the game at 15. The teams were even from there, and it was 19-19 after one.

The start of the second quarter was a mess of fouls and turnovers on both ends. Iowa’s shots stopped falling, though, and Indiana led 24-21. Indiana led by as many as 4 in the quarter, before Iowa’s offense got going again and Iowa took the lead back at 39-36. Indiana converted an and-1 on its last possession, though, and the game was tied at 39 at the half.

The third quarter was back and forth, but Indiana went on a run late to push the lead to 62-57 by the end of the third quarter.

Iowa quickly leveled the game at 62 early in the 4th quarter, but Indiana responded with a run of its own and extended the lead back to 69-62, prompting Iowa to call timeout. Indiana kept on rolling after the timeout, though, and got its lead into double digits.

Iowa finally fought back late in the quarter, and pulled within six points at 80-74 with 2:04 to play. But Iowa stopped hitting shots, and Indiana made enough free throws to close things out. The Hoosiers ultimately won 87-78.

Clark led Iowa with 35 points, 10 assists, and 4 rebounds. She shot just 12/28 from the floor, though, and also had 8 turnovers. Clark wasn’t bad, but it was far from her best game.

Part of Clark’s problem was that she didn’t get a ton of help. Warnock finished with 14 points and 11 rebounds, but only took eight shots all game. Hannah Stuelke scored 10 on 5/5 shooting from the floor, but was a shocking 0/8 from the free throw line. I’m not sure if a player has ever been perfect from the floor on 5 or more attempts while also going 0-for from the line on 8 or more attempts. No other Hawkeye was in double-figures.

A box score for the game is here.

The biggest difference in this game were the two best players of each respective team. For Indiana, Grace Berger and Mackenzie Holmes were both excellent.

Berger had 26 points, 9 rebounds, and 6 assists. She was relatively efficient in her shooting and drew plenty of fouls. Holmes had 24 points and 6 rebounds on 10/17 shooting. Iowa didn’t have an answer for her on defense.

For Iowa, Clark didn’t have her best game, but she scored more than enough for Iowa to win. Monika Czinano, though, was missing in action. Czinano struggled with foul trouble for a decent portion of the game, fouled out with three minutes left, and scored just 6 points on 3/6 shooting.

Indiana deserves credit for doing a wonderful job taking away easy entry passes. But Czinano also has to do better on both ends. She also had a couple silly fouls that contributed to her foul trouble. Frankly, Iowa looked like a more dangerous team tonight when Stuelke was in for Czinano at the 5.

Iowa
vs. Rutgers
vs. Wisconsin
at Nebraska
at #8 Maryland
vs. #2 Indiana

Indiana
at #13 Ohio State
vs. #12 Michigan
vs. Purdue
at #5 Iowa

Clearly the conference race is far from over, even though Iowa is a game back of Indiana in the loss column. Iowa has two tough road trips left before it gets another shot at Indiana at home. Indiana also has a challenging trip to Ohio State, and neither Michigan nor Purdue is a gimme at home. I wouldn’t be surprised if either team dropped at least one more game before that final matchup.

The referees in this game did both teams a disservice. In games featuring top-5 teams, it’s all about the matchups. Instead of getting to see Iowa’s best against Indiana’s best, for too much of this game both teams had multiple players on the bench in foul trouble.

Even worse, the calls weren’t consistent. On one end, you might get an and-1 on weak contact, then see a no call on the other end when the contact was clearly harder.

There were also some strange calls. In the first half, Iowa got separately whistled for an offensive three seconds and a carry call. I don’t think we’ve seen more than five of those called all season. And in real time, neither looked egregious — if they were violations at all.

The officiating was a big reason this game seemed so sloppy and disjointed. Hopefully when these teams match up again later in the year they have a better officiating crew.

Iowa returns to action on Sunday, February 12th at 2 PM CT at home against Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights are 10-14 overall and 4-8 in the Big Ten. The game will be televised on Fox Sports 1.