The Iowa Hawkeyes were picked fourth in the Big Ten preseason coaches’ poll, but are off to a slow 4-7 start, placing them in a tie for tenth, with 25% of the season completed.
Time to panic?
Give up on the season?
No. If you remember my schedule analysis article, I said that the first 10/15 games of the season were against teams that landed in the Big Ten preseason coaches top six.
Nebraska the lone team not in the top six, would have likely been #7. So, the Hawkeyes are facing the toughest part of their schedule right now. So far there has been just two games out of thirteen, where I would say were not winnable.
In the other eleven, the Hawkeyes either had chances to get out of innings with less damage or get more runs and just couldn’t do the job. The challenge is putting everything together. Pitching, fielding and hitting all clicking on a nightly basis is not an easy feat in baseball, but is more than attainable for this team.
The Good
P Trenton Wallace- 3 starts, 2-0, 1.00 ERA, 18 inn, 26 SO, 9 BB, 7 H, 2 R
Over his three starts so far, Trenton Wallace has cemented himself as one of the best pitchers in the Big Ten. Wallace has actually thrown 17 scoreless innings this season, with the two lone runs coming in his 2nd inning of the season vs Michigan. He allowed three hits that inning and just four in the other 17 innings. Wallace has thrown back to back scoreless outings, going 13 innings, while striking out 18 and is an elite Friday starter. As long as he is on the mound on Friday nights, the Hawkeyes will be in good hands.
OF Ben Norman- .308 avg, .426 OBP, 4 HR*, 10 RBI, 5 SB, 1.000 fielding %
After starting 0/15, with just two walks, Ben Norman has been on fire, batting .500, with four home runs. He has established himself as a veteran bat in the Iowa order, just as projected at the beginning of the season. On top of his hot hitting, I will direct you to the D1 Baseball Top Plays of the Week tweet from the other day. Norman has made a handful of very solid outfield plays, including the leaping grab vs Nebraska and as a former outfielder myself, I like to point out good fielding.
3B Matthew Sosa- .324 avg, .444 OBP, 4 2B, 7 RBI, 8 HBP
Sosa was not a headlining name for this Iowa lineup at the beginning of the season, but has gotten off to a great start leading the team in batting average and doubles. The one concerning thing is that instead of walking him, pitchers feel the need to hit him with pitches. Eight times in 11 games Sosa has been hit.
C/DH Tyler Snep- .533 avg, 8 H, 2 HR, 16 total bases/15 at bats, 9 BB
Coach Heller needs to keep Snep in the daily lineup if he is going get on base like he has lately. Snep has reached base in his last seven at bats, including all five plate appearances vs Nebraska on Sunday. In his limited time at the plate, Snep has gotten on base at an outrageous .708 clip.
The Fight Back vs Nebraska
Iowa trailed 7-0 and 8-1 on Saturday vs the Huskers, but fought back and only lost 10-8. Then trailed 7-3 after just two innings Sunday, but fought the whole game, falling 13-8. Despite, the losses both days, it was good to see the team fight for nine innings, rather than folding over and losing 11-0 or 12-4. Shows that this team is not ok with getting blown out any day and that the game is never over.
The Bad
Limiting walks and errors- 56 BB (5.1 per game), 12 errors (1.1 per game)
Based on my calculations, there has been at least one walk and/or error in 16/24 innings that opponents have scored in and 30% of opponents runs scored have been runners that have reached due to walk or error. Coach Heller spoke about this after one of their losses to Nebraska saying, “It’s not the home run that generally beats you, it generally the walk or hit by pitch or the error that leads to the two-run homer or the three-run homer.” Pitchers have to focus on limiting walks and the fielders have to be sharp for nine innings because an inning can go from two runs allowed to 4-5-6, when you throw in a couple walks and an error.
Hitting with runners in scoring position
This has arguably been the biggest piece that has been missing so far this season. Unfortunately, I do not have exact stats for how the team is hitting with runners in scoring position, so I looked back at a couple of situations that have transpired thus far.
1) vs Michigan – loss 4-2 – 2nd inning
The Hawkeyes scored one run in the inning, but had runners on 2nd and 3rd with just one out. A strikeout and fly out ended the inning, while a single could have scored two in a two-run loss.
2) vs Nebraska – loss 4-0 – 3rd inning
A Ben Norman leadoff double and Dylan Nedved one out single, lead to runners on 2nd and 3rd with one out. A strikeout and groundout ended the inning, while a single could have given the Hawkeyes an early 2-0 lead. Iowa ended the game going 0-7 with runners in scoring position.
3) vs Nebraska – loss 10-8 – 5th inning
Hawkeyes were trying to make a big rally and had already plated six runs in the inning. They still had bases loaded with just one out, but the inning ended with back to back strikeouts. Although, the Hawks scored six in the inning, ending with two strikeouts is huge because Nebraska wasn’t forced to make a play to get themselves out of the inning.
The Disappointing
Strikeouts by big bats in the order – Struggling bats
Zeb Adreon, Austin Martin and Peyton Williams have combined for 39 strikeouts in 95 at bats. That’s a strikeout rate of 41%, meaning they are not even forcing the defenders to field and make throws to get them out. Izaya Fullard is off to a slow start as well batting just .171 on the season.
While it is still somewhat early in the season, it will be critical for those four guys to get going if this team wants to get rolling mid-season.
“The guys who are struggling, I guess I would say…they can’t struggle that bad. You’re struggles need to be a little better.” Coach Heller said this while laughing after the Sunday finale loss vs Nebraska, but despite the laughing he is right.
The guys that are striking out at a high rate need to start getting balls in play because it only takes one or two hits to spark a hot hitting streak in baseball. At a certain point, a hitting slump needs to be broken and I think Coach Heller is to that point where he’s saying “alright lets get this going, we need you guys to produce for us,” and once those four guys start hitting the ball, this offense will be lethal.
Not putting it all together
Credit to Pat Harty for asking the question after Sundays game.
“Is the challenge putting this all together? It seems like you have one strength and then something else doesn’t come through that day.”
This was on display over the weekend at home vs Nebraska, when the bats put up 16 runs in two days, but the team came away with two losses. Even further back, you have the opening loss to Michigan and a loss to Nebraska in Minneapolis, where the pitching staff allowed four runs in both games, but the offense only mustered two runs in one game and zero in the other.
This is where I combine all of my writing above to say, when this team can finally put it all together it is going to be fun to watch.
Pitching staff limiting free bases, hitting with runners in scoring position and struggling bats getting going. When those things all come together on a nightly basis, this team has the potential to be one of the top teams in the Big Ten.
I 100% believe that, but the question comes down to…Will it all come together?
With 33 games left, there is more than enough time for this team to get going and Coach Heller is definitely a coach that knows how fix the issues that are present over the first 11 games.
