Iowa raced out to an 11-0 lead at Oregon, eventually pushing its lead to 27-12 in the first half before sputtering down the stretch and losing, 50-49, at the Matthew Knight Arena in Eugene, Oregon. Addison O'Grady and Syd Affolter led the Hawkeyes with 10 points apiece in the loss, but O'Grady scored just two points in the second half and missed a go-ahead elbow jumper with three seconds left.
Forward Hannah Stuelke was unable to travel with the team due to a concussion suffered in overtime against Nebraska; she is almost certainly out for Wednesday night's game at Washington as well.
Lucy Olsen's struggles on offense continued, as the preseason All-Big Ten guard finished with just four points on 2-12 shooting, including 0-7 in the second half; Olsen also committed five turnovers and found herself watching the last 3:48 of the loss from the bench.
Iowa falls to 12-7 (2-6 B1G), with its tournament hopes suddenly in grave peril as the Hawkeyes' losing streak mounts to five games for the first time since the 2012-13 season.
THE DEEP THREE
1. A fast start....Head coach Jan Jensen tinkered with the starting lineup once again Sunday, partly out of necessity with Stuelke's concussion and partly in ongoing efforts to find a trustworthy first five.
So with a starting five of Olsen, Taylor McCabe, Kylie Feuerbach, Syd Affolter and Addison O'Grady — all upperclassmen, all plagued by inconsistency this season — Iowa jumped out to an 11-0 lead, holding the Ducks scoreless for the first 7:05 of the game.
"I think we found something with our starts, which is something for the last few games that we've been looking to show up," said assistant coach Raina Harmon. "We've been having some slow starts and I think we found a formula that works."
O'Grady and Feuerbach were clicking early, as the two assisted each other on the first three buckets of the game.
Iowa pushed its lead to 27-12 in the second quarter, shooting 11-for-16 from the field at the time while Oregon was making less than a third of its shots. Neither trend was sustainable, of course — but a 15-point advantage at any point in a game where the opponent can only muster 50 points should be a dominant position.
"Our defense was good, I liked how we started the game, and we handled some things really well," said Jensen. "[Oregon] amped their pressure in the second quarter; it wasn't just the second half."
Iowa maintained its advantage early after halftime too, as a McCabe three-pointer to open the second half pushed the Hawkeyes' lead back to 35-22.
2. ...and an inexcusable finish. Unfortunately, college basketball remains a 40-minute sport, and Iowa's fast start didn't just fade, it fell off a cliff.
"It's a full game of 40 minutes," said Affolter. "It's not 20, it's not 30, and that's kind of been true for [all of] the games that we've lost this year."
After that 11-16 start, the Hawkeyes made just 8-of-35 shots the rest of the way, including a catastrophic 3-for-13 fourth quarter as Oregon lurched ahead in the game's only lead change. There's a lot of ways to win Big Ten games, but making 23% of field goals over the last 25 minutes is a surefire way to lose them.
"Today, we just got so stagnant offensively," said Jensen. "I just didn't have anybody that was able to get freed up and create. ... We got a little stymied when Lucy didn't hit. She's our key cog, and you just get a little tighter when you can't get that to go."
"We still need to trust in our offense and believe in each other," said Affolter. "When we don't get stops, it's not the time to get really quick shots. So I think we're definitely learning on that, but we need to lean on each other and trust our offense."
Olsen's dreadful second half also included four of her five turnovers, with two of them coming on offensive fouls on consecutive possessions. Iowa committed 19 turnovers as a team Sunday, and while Oregon converted only* 11 points off those turnovers, that's still nineteen possessions ending without a scoring opportunity in a one-point loss.
*As anyone who has watched the Iowa men's team lately can attest, this could have been significantly worse.
"The game can look pretty, it may not, but it's who makes the the least amount of mistakes," said assistant coach Raina Harmon. "You look at that turnover column, which is something that we've been avoiding for the last few games. To finish with 19 turnovers in a game like this, that's just not acceptable."
While Olsen's struggles were largely as a shooter on Sunday — she added six rebounds and four assists, while playing spirited defense — the gap between her offensive production and what Iowa needs it to be to win games seems to only grow larger, which is taking an evident toll on the Villanova transfer.
"I think the vets are pressing, and I think [Olsen] is really trying to press," said Jensen. "She's more of a scoring point guard and it's coming a little harder. I keep watching the film and keep trying to explain the alleys that are open and to keep forcing and drive. She has a tendency to want to come back [out] and attack [again], and sometimes what's there is the first thing, so then it ends up being a tougher shot."
Once again, though, singling one player out rarely explains a 49-point team performance, and that's true for Iowa's latest unceremonious collapse. Olsen's stat line was an eyesore, but right behind her five turnovers for the Hawkeyes was Olsen's backup, Aaliyah Guyton, with four.
And yet, Iowa's better off with both of them on the floor than neither. If the answers were obvious, they'd be in place already. There's no telling whether Iowa's woes even have an answer. If Jensen can't find it, it won't be for a lack of effort.
"I really want to take a look at all of our lineups and see who can give us the best chance offensively," said Jensen. "We're just not having the offensive production that we need to come out on top and win these closer games."
Jensen has a tall task in front of her there; none of Iowa's nine players had a positive plus-minus in the second half, and there remains little consistency game-to-game on what Iowa's most effective lineup looks like.
Even with the offense spinning its wheels ineffectually in the second half, the Hawkeyes had a shot to win in the closing seconds, with the ball at midcourt and 9.5 seconds to overcome the one-point deficit. With Olsen stapled to the bench, though, the final play turned into Syd Affolter trying to create off the drive, finding traffic, and kicking to O'Grady for the same elbow jumper she'd hammered the Ducks with in the first half.
Clank. Front iron. Ballgame.
Another agonizing loss for the Hawkeyes, and more adversity for a team that has long eclipsed the point of diminishing returns on said losses as learning opportunities. What this team needs to learn — or re-learn — is how to win. What that looks like, and who steps up to lead that charge, remains anyone's guess.
3. The offense needed Stuelke. Iowa's fast start belied the playmaking hole left in the offense by Stuelke, whose absence was the injury added to the insult of Iowa's inability to close out Nebraska in regulation on Sunday.
"Yeah, in overtime," said Jensen when asked when Stuelke suffered the concussion. "Which caused a few things in that game as well."
The injury wasn't evident at the time; Stuelke left that OT with 3:23 left, but came back with nine seconds left and even forced a steal in the waning seconds, starting a transition that led to one last Affolter shot to tie the game. Jensen indicated that Stuelke's symptoms worsened afterward and she was unable to travel with the team.
While Stuelke has been more productive as a 5 this season, Iowa might have ended up using her at the 4 Sunday, either in the starting lineup or over the course of the contest. Oregon starts 6'8" Phillipina Kyei in the middle, and matchups against 6'6"-plus players are the 6'2" (at best) Stuelke's primary weakness as a center.
That's not to say Iowa was overmatched on the boards, though; far from it, even without its most athletic rebounder in Stuelke. Iowa out-rebounded the Ducks 40-26, including 11 offensive rebounds for the Hawkeyes.
Regardless of where Stuelke would have been slotted in Sunday, the 5'11" Affolter and 6'1" freshman Teagan Mallegni — both nominally guards — were the only 4s Iowa had available in the rotation. While Mallegni's time on the court was brief and ineffectual (four minutes, 0-1 FG), Affolter at least leaned into her role as a difference-maker in the interior and logged a career-high 15 boards.
"Getting moved to the 4 freed [Affolter] up a little bit to play a little bit more like she did last year," said Harmon. "If rebounding is going to be her best attribute, now she's in a position where she could do just that, and to be able to get four offensive rebounds was huge for her."
Indeed, though Affolter ended up sharing the team lead in points Sunday, she remains limited as a playmaker on offense, especially as a passer off the dribble. Stuelke at least provides another center of gravity for the offense, which it seems Olsen needs.
Meanwhile at the 5, O'Grady's slow second half opened the door for Sherwood, Oregon native Ava Heiden to log some productive minutes in her home state. Heiden finished with eight points, five rebounds and a pair of blocks in Sunday's loss.
"Ava got a few more minutes in the absence of Hannah, and I thought she did a lot of good things in there," said Jensen. "She's going to be a really good player as she keeps working at it. She gives you a little different bounce and a little different look."
Even with the green shoots of progress, it's no question that Stuelke's absence was as stark as the 49-point output Sunday, and Iowa simply needs better consistency from everyone at the 4 and 5 against Washington, for all 40 minutes.
Iowa stays out west and plays at Washington in Seattle on Wednesday, January 22. That game tips off at 8 PM CT and will stream on Peacock.