Published Dec 19, 2024
Pickin' On The Big Ten: Postseason Part 1
Mark Hasty  •  Hawkeye Beacon
Staff Writer
Twitter
@MarkHasty

Hi, hello, and how are you? I opted out of picking the Big Ten Championship Game because I guess opting out is the new thing to do. I’m going to pick the entire postseason, for as long as the Big Ten has a dog in the fight. So today you get the first round of the playoffs and all the bowl games that are being played prior to December 29. Next week you’ll get playoff picks for the conference teams still standing (we’re guaranteed to have at least one since Oregon has a first-round bye) as well as the picks for the remaining bowl games. But before we get to that, let’s slide back to the last weekend in November and go over …

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WHAT I GOT RIGHT AND WHAT I GOT WRONG

MINNESOTA AT WISCONSIN : I said Wisconsin 24, Minnesota 20; actual score Minnesota 24, Wisconsin 7

I don’t know why I believed in Luke Fickell, nor do I know why Wisconsin still believes in him.

ILLINOIS vs NORTHWESTERN: I said Illinois 37, Northwestern 13; actual score Illinois 38, Northwestern 28

Northwestern got better as the season rolled onward, but you’d never know it to look at the record.

MICHIGAN AT OHIO STATE: I said Ohio State 41, Michigan 14; actual score Michigan 13, Ohio State 10

I was wrong, but I don’t mind when it’s this comical.

RUTGERS AT MICHIGAN STATE: I said Michigan State 23, Rutgers 17; actual score Rutgers 41, Michigan State 14

As opposed to here, where I was just plain wrong.

MARYLAND AT PENN STATE: I said Penn State 30, Maryland 24; actual score Penn State 44, Maryland 7

Fire hydrants put up more fight against dogs.

FRESNO STATE AT UCLA: I said UCLA 28, Fresno State 23, actual score UCLA 20, Fresno State 13

I feel like Deshaun Foster has planted some seeds of hope for next season.

NOTRE DAME AT USC: I said Notre Dame 34, USC 10, actual score Notre Dame 49, USC 35

I feel like Lincoln Riley better start buying half-gallons of milk.

PURDUE AT INDIANA: I said Indiana 42, Purdue 7; actual score Indiana 66, Purdue 0

Ryan Walters was a defensive coach.

WASHINGTON AT OREGON: I said Oregon 38, Washington 20; actual score Oregon 49, Washington 21

Oregon rolls onward. Not much else to say.

NEBRASKA AT IOWA: I said Iowa 20, Nebraska 17; actual score Iowa 13, Nebraska 10

I believe I told you it didn’t matter who Iowa’s quarterback was going to be.

That was 7-3 on the regular season’s final week, making me 107-27 (.799) on the season. Aw, hamburgers, I was hoping to stay above .800. But hey, there’s still time! Unfortunately picking these remaining games is going to be rather a bit difficult. Let’s dig in to the games, starting with the playoff bouts.

No. 10 INDIANA AT No. 7 NOTRE DAME (Friday, 7 pm, ABC/ESPN) 

While I generally don’t want to be the turd in the punchbowl and I fully acknowledge that Curt Cignetti’s first season at Indiana has thus far exceeded even unreasonable expectations, I’m also not the first to note that the Hoosiers benefited greatly from a fairly soft schedule. They are legitimately good, but in their biggest game of the year, they lost to Ohio State.

Notre Dame is one snakebit, fluke-y, once-in-a-lifetime loss to Northern Illinois from perfection and, while the Fighting Irish have beaten up on their share of soft-bellies, they’ve played several teams that wound up making bowl games, too. I anticipate a hard-fought battle here, but I’m guessing the Irish will come out on top.

Notre Dame 35, Indiana 30

No. 11 SMU AT No. 6 PENN STATE (Saturday, 11 am TNT/TBS/TruTV/Max)

If you’ve been reading this column all season you know that I am not sold on Penn State as a great team. They showed out better than I anticipated against Oregon but still fell short. I do believe that dragging SMU to Happy Valley in mid-December should redound in the Nits’ favor, just more of the dumb luck that I think has kept them afloat all year.

Penn State 31, SMU 24

No. 9 TENNESSEE AT No. 8 OHIO STATE (Saturday, 7 pm, ABC/ESPN) 

First off, Ohio State isn’t Michigan-game terrible. This team was in the Top 5 for most of the season and it belonged there. No one else has given Oregon as much of a fight as the Buckeyes have, and Ohio State would love a rematch.

The Vols, meanwhile, could make a case that they are underseeded in this playoff and are actually the best two-loss team standing. Losing to Arkansas is somewhat humiliating but otherwise the Georgia loss was expected and no one would have been surprised by 8-4 Tennessee this season. Josh Heupel has done a pretty good job in Knoxville.

I just don’t think the Vols have enough to roll into Columbus and win one, though.

Ohio State 24, Tennessee 21

And with that out of the way, let’s pick all the bowls prior to the Music City Bowl. These games are hard to pick because of all the transfer portal entries and draft-related opt-outs. You are a fool if you gamble off my picks anyway but you really shouldn’t take these picks as anything but entertainment …

RATE BOWL: RUTGERS VS. KANSAS STATE (Thursday 12/26, 4:30 pm, ESPN) 

One of the great college football discussions is “Who’s your other team?” as in “Who’s your favorite team other than the main one you root for?” I don’t mind telling you Kansas State is mine. Most of that is due to Bill Snyder, of course, but over time I have grown to love the Wildcats’ tenacity and ability to be more than just the sum of their parts. They remind me of another team I follow …

But I suppose I was too dismissive of Rutgers all season. The Scarlet Knights aren’t a great football team, and that’s why they’re playing in the middle of the afternoon on the day after Christmas. Still, just for pure sentiment, I’m going with the Cats.

Kansas State 30, Rutgers 23

SRS DISTRIBUTION LAS VEGAS BOWL: TEXAS A&M VS. USC (Friday 12/27, 9:30 pm, ESPN) 

Now comes two teams whose fans persistently think that their team should be better than it winds up being. (Please note that I stopped short of calling A&M and USC fans “entitled.” Nope, you did not hear me say that. And I’m not going to say it about Nebraska fans either.)

USC beat LSU in the season opener but otherwise has zero wins against ranked opponents this season. Texas A&M has done, you know, a little better than that, but you do wonder if Aggy will be distracted by the fleshpots of Las Vegas. My guess is “nah.”

Texas A&M 38, USC 27

BAD BOY MOWERS PINSTRIPE BOWL: BOSTON COLLEGE VS. NEBRASKA (Saturday 12/28, 11 am, ABC) 

(Like people in the Bronx have lawns to mow.)

I am legitimately happy for Nebraska on making it back to a bowl game for the first time since the Mike Riley era. No lie. If the Huskers are Iowa’s permanent Thanksgiving weekend date, I’m a lot happier if they’re actually good. Same deal with Iowa State; I’d rather have a close loss to a 10-2 team on the record than a blowout victory over a 2-10 team.

But you didn’t come here for me to get meta. These two teams are surprisingly closely matched. Boston College very nearly took down Iowa’s Music City Bowl opponent Missouri, sort of like how Nebraska almost got Ohio State. However, for both teams, the rest of the schedule was strictly chalk, with no good or bad surprises. I feel like Nebraska overall has faced better competition and should have the upper hand here.

Nebraska 27, Boston College 24