By the end of this weekend, every Big Ten team will have played two-thirds of its schedule, and several will have played three-quarters of it. Typically by this point it’s been fairly clear which teams were headed to Indianapolis, but right now it’s as clear as ranch dressing.

I grant that is somewhat of a ludicrous statement. There are three undefeated teams -- Oregon, Indiana, and Penn State -- and it would be greatly shocking if none of those three wound up playing for the title. Oregon seems almost a lock; the Ducks’ greatest test was playing Ohio State, and they won. With remaining games against Michigan, Maryland, Wisconsin, and Washington … well, they’ll be favored in all of those unless the wheels come off.

Penn State faces a huge test against Ohio State this week. If the Nittany Lions pass their Buckeye test, It’s a downhill run (Washington, Purdue, Minnesota, and Maryland) from here.

Indiana is the potential spanner in the works. The Hoosiers have mollywhopped everyone they’ve gone up against this year but have a trip to Columbus looming for the season’s penultimate weekend. That will be by far their biggest test of the season. It would be easy to say the Buckeyes will easily outmatch them, but IU has troubled the Bucks when it wasn’t good. I want no part of that action, even if I’m not yet ready to say that Indiana is an elite team.

Doubtless you've noticed the common thread here: Ohio State. The Buckeyes have lost to Oregon but still remain in full control of their destiny. If the Buckeyes should beat Penn State and Indiana, no one could deny they’d deserve a spot in Indianapolis.

It’s also theoretically still possible for one of the five teams with two conference losses already to make it, but that’s deep into deus ex machina territory.

So the first season of the 18-team, divisions-free Big Ten has given us a wide open conference race on the first weekend of November. It’s exciting, if a bit tough to get a grasp on. This is normally where I’d crack a lame joke about how much experience I have in not comprehending what will happen in Big Ten football, but this week I’m not going to do that, because …

RUTGERS AT USC: I said USC 31, Rutgers 20; actual score USC 42, Rutgers 20

Regression to the mean: it’s inevitable, and it works in both directions.

WASHINGTON AT INDIANA: I said Indiana 40, Washington 23; actual score Indiana 31, Washington 17

Indiana, the unstoppable juggernaut.

NEBRASKA AT OHIO STATE: I said Ohio State 48, Nebraska 13; actual score Ohio State 21, Nebraska 17

Ooh, that’s a little Frost-y there, Matt Rhule.

MARYLAND AT MINNESOTA: I said Minnesota 27, Maryland 24; actual score Minnesota 48, Maryland 23

Eh, close enough.

ILLINOIS AT OREGON: I said Oregon 38, Illinois 17; actual score Oregon 38, Illinois 9

“Nine” is a German homophone for how Oregon treated the Illini. Keep the game close? Nein!

MICHIGAN STATE AT MICHIGAN: I said Michigan 21, Michigan State 20; actual score Michigan 24, Michigan State 17

A mid result for a mid game between two mid-seeming teams.

PENN STATE AT WISCONSIN: I said Penn State 31, Wisconsin 28; actual score Penn State 28, Wisconsin 13

I still think Penn State is waiting to get hung out to dry; Wisconsin just wasn’t the team to do it.

NORTHWESTERN AT IOWA: I said Iowa 17, Northwestern 13; actual score Iowa 40, Northwestern 14

And all is right with the world.

That’s a hearty (and unexpected) 8-0 on the week, making my season total 77-18 (.811). Will I get them all right again? Buddy, I didn’t even think I’d do it once.

*: all times are Central and all games are on Saturday, which I didn’t even know was still possible

I think it’s great that losing badly to Oregon wasn’t enough to knock Illinois out of the Top 25. The Illini are a fairly solid football team that has gradually been ramping up its performance. I honestly hope it continues.

Minnesota is what it (almost) always has been under P.J. Fleck: a 7-5 team that wants you to think it’s capable of being a 10-2 team. If that were going to happen regularly, it would have already happened more than once. Still, you disregard the Gophers at your own peril, because on their best days they can punch above their weight class.

I just don’t think this will be one of their best days.

Illinois 24, Minnesota 21

This is the Big Ten Game of the Century of the Week and, as noted above, it’s a pretty important game. Ohio State will almost certainly miss the Big Ten Championship Game, and by extension the College Football Playoff, if it loses once more.

As also noted above, I think Penn State’s day in the barrel is coming. It’s not a bad team but by no means is it the third-best team in the country. Yes, they have some pretty decent offensive weapons and a traditionally stout defense, but the Nits have not proven they are one the same level as Ohio State -- even if Ohio State itself seems like it’s not quite what it has been for the past two decades or so. When you add in that the Buckeyes already feel like they got jobbed once on the road, I am guessing they won’t want to leave any doubt. And I don’t think they will.

Ohio State 34, Penn State 20

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The only reason I am writing anything about this game at all is because maybe, possibly, somewhere there is a person whose television is stuck tuned to BTN and they don’t know what to do now. Fear not; help is on the way. This game starts at 11 am on Saturday and by 11:15 you will finally have realized that you can just get up, turn the television off, and do literally anything else.

I repeat an assertion I have already made this year: I hope Ryan Walters is renting.

Northwestern 28, Purdue 23

From 10,000 feet, Michigan is almost certainly the biggest barrier standing between Oregon and Indianapolis. From the ground, it looks suspiciously like Wisconsin might be almost as good as the Wolverines.

But still, this is a game in the Big House, which is not an easy place for visitors to win. Unless those visitors are on a whole different level than Michigan, that is.

Oregon 34, Michigan 18

While the Hoosiers are rolling, the injury to quarterback Kurtis Rourke last week might give a bit of a sour, familiar feeling to the Indiana faithful. The IU starters have always been much closer to the level of their Big Ten opponents than their record might indicate, but that’s mostly because the dropoff from first to second string has been, shall we say, considerable.

The other signal-caller, Michigan State’s Aidan Chiles, has been solid all season for Sparty. Regardless of that, I do believe that IU is just something special this year, and Michigan State isn’t, so there’s that.

Indiana 31, Michigan State 20

It feels like DeShaun Foster is on the edge of turning UCLA … well, not around, exactly, but within a gnat’s nose hair of the right direction. The Bruins have had some heartbreaking losses this season, along with a couple games early on where they never got off the bus.

Nebraska, meanwhile, had Ohio State right where they wanted them last week -- in Columbus, no less -- and let the Buckeyes off the hook. They’ll either rebound spectacularly or soil their bed so badly that the mattress will have to be burned. As much as I want to believe UCLA can take down the Huskers, I just don’t see it happening.

Nebraska 27, UCLA 23

To be honest, both these teams have been snakebit in their inaugural Big Ten seasons. USC should have shown more improvement over last season, while Washington (lest we forget) played for the national title last season and looks like it will struggle to be the second-best West Coast team in the conference this season.

In other words, they put this game on the right network, because it’s not really a showcase for the conference. I bet it’ll be a pretty good game, though, and I bet USC will win.

USC 33, Washington 24

And that leaves …

This is what you wanted, right? A change in starting quarterback and Cade McNamara nowhere on the depth chart. That’ll fix everything, won’t it?

I don’t fault McNamara for his performance this season. He hasn’t been stellar but it’s not his fault that Kirk Ferentz is stubborn and doesn’t realize leaving a struggling quarterback in the game is not loyalty or continuity or anything praiseworthy at all. Likewise when Brendan Sullivan doesn’t immediately turn the Hawkeyes into mid-1990s Nebraska, that’s not his fault either.

But for this game, against a Wisconsin team that’s getting better but still nothing special, it may not matter. It’s at Kinnick where the Hawks rarely lose conference games and the Badgers don’t have a lot of video to use in preparing for how the Iowa offense will be different under Sullivan.

Stop laughing. It will be different. I’m not looking for a huge points explosion like we saw last week against Northwestern but the Hawkeyes should be able to handle the Badgers. Naturally, it won’t be as grand and polished of a victory as Hawkeye fans long for, but it will count just as much.

Iowa 20, Wisconsin 16