There isn’t going to be much of an intro this week, as the fact that apparently I’m going to have to take Rutgers and Indiana seriously for the whole season is eating my brain. I knew that league expansion would shake things up a bit but it’s starting to feel like we’ve awoken Cthulhu by accident.
And speaking of dread eldritch horrors …
WHAT I GOT RIGHT AND WHAT I GOT WRONG
WASHINGTON AT RUTGERS: I said Washington 24, Rutgers 23; actual score, Rutgers 21, Washington 18
Not sure if Rutgers is good or Washington is washed or a little of both, maybe.
MARYLAND AT INDIANA: I said Indiana 40, Maryland 24; actual score, Indiana 42, Maryland 28
I think the legend of September Maryland is dying.
MINNESOTA AT MICHIGAN: I said Michigan 30, Minnesota 27; actual score, Michigan 27, Minnesota 24
Told you this was a trap game for the Wolverines.
NEBRASKA AT PURDUE: I said Nebraska 38, Purdue 12; actual score, Nebraska 28, Purdue 10.
What a thoroughly beige football game. I’d blame the weather but Indiana and Maryland played in the same stuff.
WISCONSIN AT USC: I said USC 43, Wisconsin 17; actual score, USC 38, Wisconsin 21
The Trojans let the Badgers hang around too long but wound up with a decisive victory anyway.
OHIO STATE AT MICHIGAN STATE: I said Ohio State 44, Michigan State 10; actual score, Ohio State 38, Michigan State 7
Give it a couple more years, Sparty.
ILLINOIS AT PENN STATE: I said Penn State 30, Illinois 24; actual score, Penn State 21, Illinois 7
.. so where was that Illinois offense?
OREGON AT UCLA: I said Oregon 52, UCLA 14; actual score, Oregon 34, UCLA 13.
Props to the Bruins for keeping it within three touchdowns. I guess.
That makes for a 7-1 performance on the week, bumping my yearly total up to 55-10 (.846). I’m not used to these wuthering heights, so let’s get some games wrong, shall we?
MICHIGAN STATE AT No. 6 OREGON (Friday, 8 pm Central*, Fox)
*: All times in this column are always Central. Now you East Coast types know what it feels like.
This is the first-ever matchup between two Big Ten teams that both wear green uniforms, though I wonder which of Oregon’s 4,367 unis it’ll be wearing.
For the legacy Big Ten, this is an expansion-related nightmare: short week, rebuilding team traveling from Eastern to Pacific time, and a night game against a Top Ten opponent. This is a door that swings in both directions, though (see ‘USC at Minnesota,’ below).
Pour one out for Michigan State. Oregon is so tough at home after dark and the Ducks are looking to make some noise.
Oregon 48, Michigan State 14
UCLA AT No. 7 PENN STATE (Saturday, 11 am, Fox)
UCLA plays this game in Happy Valley, is at home against Minnesota next week, then plays the following Sunday at the suddenly threatening Rutgers. Are we sure this is a good idea?
Well, Penn State probably thinks it is.
Penn State 41, UCLA 17
PURDUE AT WISCONSIN (Saturday, 11 am, BTN)
Sadly, this will probably be the better of the two games in the 11 am time slot. While I was impressed with how well Wisconsin was able to hold its own against USC on the road last week, the end result was sort of what I had predicted.
Speaking of predictability, Purdue is going nowhere. The rushing and scoring defenses are the conference’s worst by a considerable margin, which is shocking given that Ryan Walters made his bones as a defensive coordinator. It’s very possible the Boilermakers won’t win four games this season -- and this won’t be one of their wins.
Wisconsin 23, Purdue 13
No. 23 INDIANA AT NORTHWESTERN (Saturday, 2:30 pm, BTN)
Yes, it feels really weird to type ‘No. 23 INDIANA.’ But you know what? The Hoosiers deserve it. Let’s not get out over our skis, though. IU has to play Michigan and Ohio State in November, which will likely take the shine off their shoes, but for now I think the wise course is to enjoy watching some beautiful Indiana football, and yes, it feels really weird to type that too.
Northwestern, meanwhile, is spinning its wheels in almost every phase of the game, and it doesn’t feel at all strange to type that.
Indiana 52, Northwestern 20
RUTGERS AT NEBRASKA (Saturday, 3 pm, FS1)
This game has strong potential to be the true Big Ten game of the week, because it features two teams that look like they’re finally getting it together. It has taken Greg Schiano a little longer than expected to get Rutgers back to the level at which he once had it, but they are there now. Matt Rhule, meanwhile, looks like he’s about on Year 2.5 of his typical three-year program refresh, so Nebraska is running right on schedule.
Rutgers ranks right behind Penn State and Iowa in rushing offense -- and the difference between those two is literally two feet per game. But the Nebraska defense is surprisingly resurgent. That will make the difference in this game. It’ll be a fun watch regardless.
Nebraska 30, Rutgers 23
No. 10 MICHIGAN AT WASHINGTON (Saturday, 6:30 pm, NBC/Peacock)
This is a rematch of last season’s national championship game. I am only mentioning that because (a) goodness knows the announcers will, and (b) it’s probably going to look more like a rematch of last season’s Michigan-Purdue game. I mean, I think 2024 Washington is better than 2023 Purdue, but it’s still not a great team, and the Wolverines have points to make.
Michigan 44, Washington 24
No. 11 USC AT MINNESOTA (Saturday, 6:30 pm, BTN)
Why lie? Part of the thrill of league expansion was knowing that the West Coast teams were going to have to play road night games in the upper Midwest in the fall. Let’s see how powerful you are when it’s not 80° and sunny at kickoff.
(checks Minneapolis weather forecast)
Okay, disregard that. Climate change is stealing our homefield advantages!
USC has a fairly favorable schedule from here on out; all of its toughest games will be in the LA Coliseum. Yes, they have to travel to Maryland, but the Terps shouldn’t be that much of a challenge. Next week’s matchup with Penn State promises to be a banger too.
That’s why I think Minnesota has more than a puncher’s chance in this game. It would be pretty easy for the Trojans to sleepwalk through the Gophers, but P.J. Fleck needs something good to build on after almost knocking off Michigan in the Big House last week. I don’t know why, but I think he’ll get the job done. Not that it will break my heart if he doesn’t.
Minnesota 28, USC 27
And of course, that leaves ...
IOWA AT No. 3 OHIO STATE (Saturday, 2:30 pm, CBS/Paramount+)
Of course I remember 55-24, Iowa’s amazingly unexpected 2017 beatdown of Ohio State. That game is forever the Iowa equivalent of Iowa State’s 1992 19-10 upset over then-No. 7 Nebraska, also known as the Marv Seiler game, a game that was prideful and hilarious in equal measures because Seiler had no bloody business doing the Huskers like that.
(For those of you under 40, Nebraska was the Alabama of the early Nineties and a couple decades prior, while in 1992 Iowa State finished 4-7. Marv Seiler, making his first start as ISU’s quarterback, was no one’s idea of a dual threat QB, yet on that day, completely out of nowhere, he went ham. He ran 24 times for 144 yards against an estimable Husker D, single-handedly keeping several drives alive. Nebraska’s offense, which did feature the dual threat QB Tommie Frazier, couldn’t make much of anything happen all afternoon.)
Nevertheless, I had 11-1 as my most wildly optimistic outcome for Iowa’s season (quite different from my projected outcome, which is the same 9-3 it usually is) with this game as the one guaranteed loss. I believe that the team is getting better, most notably on offense, and I expect the Hawkeyes to put up a fight against an Ohio State team that probably doesn’t remember 55-24.
Yet even in my most homeric moments, I just can’t see Iowa winning this game. Ohio State is too deep and too good. Maybe the spirit of Marv lives on and will somehow, inexplicably, show up in Columbus by mistake to support a team he didn’t play for. I wouldn’t count on it.
Ohio State 40, Iowa 24
- SDE
- TE
- ILB
- OLB
- OT
- WR
- CB
- DT
- RB
- PRO