It’s been a season of surprises in the Big Ten. A lot of the conventional wisdom has been turned on its head, but perhaps the most surprising thing is that the conference has three teams in the Top Five right now, and Ohio State is the lowest-ranked of the three.

I’m not saying that’s how it should be. Oregon beat Ohio State, so the Ducks should absolutely be ranked above the Buckeyes, but there’s something I’m just not buying right now. I’d tell you what it is but I’d rather tell you it’s somewhere below, because then you have to read the rest of the column.

You might not agree with me about what it is. That’s fine; my recent prognostication track record is full of blemishes. Exhibit A:

OREGON AT PURDUE: I said Oregon 53, Purdue 20; actual score, Oregon 35, Purdue 0

Oregon continues to roll like ducks on a turbulent pond.

NEBRASKA AT INDIANA: I said Indiana 44, Nebraska 23; actual score, Indiana 56, Nebraska 7

My dogs are kinder to chew toys than Indiana was to the Huskers.

WISCONSIN AT NORTHWESTERN: I said Wisconsin 34, Northwestern 13; actual score, Wisconsin 23, Northwestern 3

Lamentably, that was the last game this season in My First Stadium (by Fisher-Price).

UCLA AT RUTGERS: I said Rutgers 30, UCLA 17; actual score, UCLA 35, Rutgers 32

What sort of a world is it where UCLA beating Rutgers is a mild upset?

MICHIGAN AT ILLINOIS: I said Illinois 24, Michigan 23; actual score, Illinois 21, Michigan 7

It really wasn’t even this close; the Illini were in total control of this game.

USC AT MARYLAND: I said USC 40, Maryland 24; actual score, Maryland 29, USC 28

So is October Maryland the new Septem … nah, we’re not doing this.

IOWA AT MICHIGAN STATE: I said Iowa 24, Michigan State 20; actual score, Michigan State 32, Iowa 20

Like I said, sometimes Ferentzball works. I did say defensive collapse was a possibility.

4-3 is pretty sad by my standards but hey, it’s better than the previous week’s 3-4. I now move to 69-18 (.812) on the season. Can I go 4-3 again this week? Or regress back to 3-4? Is 5-2 attainable? Or is 2-5 more likely? I can confidently predict that I will achieve none of those outcomes.

Because there are eight games this week.

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*: all times are in Central even if the games aren’t.

Can Rutgers lose to both California teams, on consecutive weekends, on opposite coasts? This is Rutgers, so I’m assuming the answer is “yes.”

Then again, can USC lose to two East Coast teams, on consecutive weekends, on opposite coasts? Lincoln Riley probably can’t afford any more losses this season but he really can’t afford to lose at home to the very definition of “a mid Big Ten football team.” Because that would mean that USC itself is nothing more than “a mid Big Ten football team,” and that won’t fly in Los Angeles.

I do believe that, after a fairly strong start to the season, Rutgers is returning to Earth. But I have no idea what planet USC is operating on. I do think it’s a lot more talented than Rutgers, however.

USC 31, Rutgers 20

I’ve run out of ways to talk about how strange it feels to wonder if Indiana can make the playoff. It seems so very unlikely and yet it also seems like this Hoosier team hasn’t hit its ceiling yet. Nebraska was doomed from the get-go last week; Indiana carved them up like a wedding reception beef roast. (Remember when Nebraska lost more games but they were always narrow losses? Good times, depending on your perspective.)

Maybe the Hoosiers are going to crash-land at some point. As fun as they are to watch, I just can’t see them getting past Ohio State, for instance, but if you’ve read the column these past couple weeks, you know I’m frequently wrong.

I can’t imagine that course correction is coming against Washington, though.

Indiana 40, Washington 23

What, exactly, did Nebraska do to deserve traveling to Columbus to take on an Ohio State squad with something to prove, the weekend after the Huskers got absolutely gutted by Indiana, of all schools?

(My brain: recalls memories of gobsmacking Husker hubris in the late 1990s)

Oh. Right. That’s what.

Ohio State 48, Nebraska 13

Have you ever noticed how there are certain matters that people take bold, brave stands on even though no one actually opposes the position they take? Like it’s somehow unusual for someone to support the troops, or to oppose child abuse? And then they try to outdo everyone else in their support/opposition? It’s performative nonsense and I’ve seen it a million times. I’ve even seen people thank homeless veterans for their service while refusing to give them a buck. Nobody can eat gratitude.

I only mention that because I want to remind myself that it’s not edgy to say I don’t care about this game. No one does! Minnesota is its usual house of cards, while Maryland has the consistency and appeal of fly vomit. You’re not going to watch this game. Neither will anyone else outside of about a dozen ZIP codes.

Minnesota 27, Maryland 24

Bret Bielema coached a masterful Illinois win over Michigan last week. Like I said above, it wasn’t as close as the score indicated, and the score indicated that Illinois won by two touchdowns. Michigan was never in that game at all. It was a great moment for a program that has been lost in the wilderness for decades.

What a shame it won’t be repeated this weekend, because there’s no way the Illini are beating Oregon.

Oregon 38, Illinois 17

This one has me stumped. I feel like Michigan State, though improving, is simply not there yet. I know, I know, I watched the game last week too, that’s pretty rich coming from an Iowa fan, but even a Cyclone fan would have to admit the defense was uncharacteristically feeble last Saturday. I’m not saying Iowa should have won; I’m just saying that Ferentzball depends on the defense being solid, and last week it was oatmeal.

Yet Michigan is reeling. It’s hard to believe the Wolverines are the defending national champions. I think, at the very least, they could be the champions of the state of Michigan this year. Confidence is low.

Michigan 21, Michigan State 20

I’ve been wondering aloud whether Luke Fickell was going to be able to maintain Wisconsin’s high(ish) level of performance. But the Badgers have now won three in a row! (Against Purdue, Rutgers, and Northwestern, but still!) And those losses to Alabama and USC … well, they look a bit worse now.

But this is also the time of year when, under James Franklin, Penn State’s CHECK ENGINE light always comes on. And I really have to wonder why, other than sheer inertia, are the Nittany Lions the No. 3 team in the nation? What’s their signature victory that justifies this? USC? Illinois? It has to be one of those two because when you look at the Nits’ other wins … woof.

Penn State will win this game, It’ll be closer than people expect. The Nits will still be a Top Five team, and you’ll be able to name at least four lower-ranked teams that could walk them like an elderly golden retriever, because they’re only being rewarded like this for not losing to teams they should have beaten anyway.

Penn State 31, Wisconsin 28

And that leaves ...

This looks for all the world like the balm that the wounded Hawkeyes need right now. And yet, the Northwestern Wildcats did beat Maryland in -- “Alexa, where is the University of Maryland?” -- by twenty-seven points. Likewise, the Iowa offense that clicked so well against Washington faltered so badly against Michigan State that it was almost like the game was played last season.

Once bitten, twice shy, but the difference-maker here is that Northwestern doesn’t have any devastating offensive weapons, so Iowa’s defense won’t have to work as hard. Northwestern’s pass defense is also one you can throw on all day, but I’m not sure that will make much difference.

Iowa wins, it should be easy, but it won’t be.

Iowa 17, Northwestern 13