Is there such a thing as a horrible win?
There is, and it happened to Oregon in Week 1. The Ducks beat Idaho, but only by the rather surprising score of 24-14. Lots of people, myself included, expected Oregon to flatten the Vandals, but that didn’t happen.
Idaho made it to the quarterfinals of the FCS playoffs last season and might be even better this year, but Oregon was -- was -- the No. 3 team in the nation. The Ducks fell four places for not beating Idaho as badly as expected. Is that fair? I don’t know, and neither does anyone else.
You know essentially nothing before Week 1, but you barely know any more after it. Maybe Idaho is really, really good. Maybe Oregon was overhyped. Maybe both. Maybe neither. One game isn’t a lot more evidence than no games.
Oregon will recover -- if it keeps winning. But that is what I hate about Power 5 versus FCS games. The Power 5 teams gain nothing by winning big, lose ground by winning close, and get obliterated by a loss. The only party that is guaranteed to walk out satisfied is the FCS team, which leaves with a check.
(Why do we still say that? “Leave with a check.” it’s a wire transfer! You really think Oregon’s AD handed Idaho’s AD a check and said, “Now, don’t lose this”?)
Anyway, before we get to this week’s games, let me look back at whether I underperformed in Week 1 as well.
Ed. Note: You can check out part two of the Week 2 picks -- featuring the classic Big Ten teams -- right here.
WHAT I GOT RIGHT AND WHAT I GOT WRONG
UCLA at Hawaii: I said UCLA 37, Hawaii 20; actual score, UCLA 16, Hawaii 13.
Sigh. I remember when Hawaii scored points in Costco quantities. And gave them up.
Connecticut at Maryland: I said Maryland 38, UConn 24; actual score, Maryland 50, UConn 7.
I admit it: I forgot about September Maryland. In my defense, this game was played in August.
UTEP at Nebraska: I said Nebraska 56, UTEP 10; actual score, Nebraska 40, UTEP 7.
I’m sure this was good enough for Husker fans.
Idaho at Oregon: I said Oregon 69, Idaho 6; actual score, Oregon 24, Idaho 14.
See above. What’s the point of being a little wrong?
Penn State at West Virginia: I said Penn State 42, West Virginia 13; actual score, Penn State 34, West Virginia 12.
Well, I almost got the score half-right.
Howard at Rutgers: I said Rutgers 35, Howard 17; actual score, Rutgers 44, Howard 7.
Kind of sad when you can’t score more than 44 against a single guy.
LSU vs. USC: I said LSU 27, USC 17; actual score, USC 27, LSU 20.
Brian Kelly is the October Maryland of Week 1.
Weber State at Washington: I said Washington 34, Weber State 20; actual score, Washington 35, Weber State 3.
So that’s a 7-1 record in Week 1, which wouldn’t bother me, except the Week 1 games are typically pretty chalky. They can also lead to dangerous false confidence, even among those who are aware of how little information one has after a single week of competition.
Speaking of dangerous false confidence, let’s make some picks.
BOWLING GREEN AT PENN STATE (11 am, BTN)*
*: all games are in Central time, and all games in the new Big Ten this week are on Saturday, and all is well and all is well and all manner of things shall be well.
Bowling Green is the school that gave Urban Meyer his first head coaching job, and I do remember watching the Falcons and thinking their coach was going to be something special, which he was. Is. Whatever.
Anyway, the pride of Southeastern Northwestern Ohio destroyed Fordham last week, so they’ll be at .500 on Sunday morning.
Penn State 48, BGSU 13
AKRON AT RUTGERS (11 am, BTN)
Akron should just join the Big Ten already. They’re already used to finishing at the bottom of the standings.
Rutgers 38, Akron 12
MICHIGAN STATE AT MARYLAND (2:30 pm, BTN)*
*: I know, Sparty is the old Big Ten, but as long as I’m splitting this column, conference games will be split by home team.
Maryland took care of business last week against UConn, while Michigan State struggled to put away Florida Atlantic. It’s also, as previously alluded to, September, and Maryland is historically strong in this month. Plus it’s the home team. So I have to go with the Terps here.
Maryland 28, Michigan State 24
EASTERN MICHIGAN AT WASHINGTON (2:30 pm, BTN)
Well. I see Washington wasted no time in adopting the Big Ten custom of the MACrifice.
Eastern Michigan used to be dreadful, of course, but that was before former Drake coach Chris Creighton took over -- crikey, this is his eleventh season? He hasn’t made the Eagles great but he has at least made them respectable. They even beat UMass on the road last week, and we all know what a snake pit …
“Alexa, does UMass even have a football stadium? It’s called ‘McGuirk’? Of course it is. Is it on campus? Hadley, Massachusetts? Makes sense, UMass hadley has any fans!”
[The writer is pelted with overripe produce.]
Washington 33, Eastern Michigan 7
COLORADO AT NEBRASKA (6:30 pm, NBC/Peacock)
Finally, after both teams changing conferences (and Colorado returning to the Big XII), this rivalry that used to be one of the highlights of the entire season returns. Two legendary coaches square off in a test of wills with the winner claiming bragging rights and the loser … needing to find five more wins for bowl eligibility, which would actually be a big boost to both programs.
Colorado foolishly scheduled North Dakota State for a guarantee game last week. The Buffaloes nearly paid the price twice.
I remain unsold on Deion Sanders and his approach to running a program. I suppose it’s possible that the switch to the defanged Big XII will create an easier path for him but I’ll believe it when I see it. Nebraska looked good in Week 1, even if it was against UTEP.
Look, this game is going to be a pale shadow of what it once was, but it is pretty nice to see one of college football’s biggest rivalries return. Am I talking about this game or Texas/Texas A&M?
You’ll never know.
Nebraska 30, Colorado 20
BOISE STATE AT No. 7 OREGON (9 pm, Peacock)
Did you forget to cancel Peacock after the Olympics? Did you not find out until you checked your card statement? Well, you're in luck, here’s an unexpectedly compelling matchup that is only available on streaming!
Boise State had an absolute dogfight last week against perennial spanner-in-the-works Georgia Southern, coming out on top in an absolutely wild game that featured an amazing 289 yard, six touchdown performance by Broncos running back Ashton Jeanty, who is probably already making some coin and is going to make even more. Whether he is enough to tip the balance in this game is another story, particularly since Oregon has plenty to prove after struggling in Week 1. I do think the Ducks have a better, deeper team, but that’s what I thought last week too. I’m still going to pick them, though.
Oregon 31, Boise State 28
UTAH STATE AT No. 13 USC (10 pm, BTN)
Big Ten fans may remember Utah State as that team that has hassled both Wisconsin and iowa to a disturbing extent. That was a couple seasons ago, though, so there’s no need to worry that the Aggies will do the same to USC. Right? Right??!?
“Alexa, who does USC play next week? Really? Where’s the game? Ann Arbor, huh?”
Yikes on bikes. Don’t get caught napping. Men of Troy.
USC 23, Utah State 17
Watch for Pickin' On The Old Big Ten, posting soon!