Preview: 2-Seed Iowa WBB vs. 5-Seed Louisville

WHO: #5 seed Louisville Cardinals (26-11 overall, 12-6 in ACC)
WHEN: Sunday, March 26 at 8 PM CT
WHERE: Climate Pledge Arena (Seattle, Washington)
TV: ESPN
RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network | Sirius/XM 109 or 196
ONLINE: www.espn.com/watch
MOBILE: www.espn.com/app
SPREAD: Iowa -5.5

This will be the toughest game of Iowa’s NCAA Tournament run. That’s not a particularly profound statement; any Elite Eight opponent has to beat three different NCAA Tournament teams to get there.

But this game won’t just be difficult because of Louisville’s talent. Coach Jeff Walz is one of the best coaches in the game, and he has turned Louisville into one of the best programs in women’s college basketball.

Louisville has made five consecutive Elite Eights. It would probably be six if the 2020 NCAA Tournament hadn’t been cancelled due to Covid. In Coach Walz’s 16 seasons at Louisville, he has made the Sweet Sixteen 12 times, the Elite Eight 8 times, the Final Four 4 times, and has been the National runner-up twice.

That is a remarkable run of success, and shows that Walz isn’t just a great recruiter; he is great at preparing his teams to beat elite opponents and adapting within a game to influence the outcome. And it shows that he has faced—and often defeated—the very best players and coaches that women’s basketball has to offer.

Many of the players on this year’s Louisville team played in the Final Four last year. They have experience in big games that this Iowa team otherwise doesn’t. The question will be what advantage that gives Louisville, if any.

5’7" Guard Hailey Van Lith -- 19.5 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 3.2 apg, 3.6 tpg, 46.5% 2FG, 29.1% 3FG.

Van Lith is to Louisville’s offense what Caitlin Clark is to Iowa’s. She has the ball in her hands much of the time, and she averages nearly 17 shots per game — far more than anyone else on Louisville’s team. She doesn’t necessarily shoot from the logo, but she can pull up for a shot from anywhere at the three-point line and in. That said, Van Lith’s favorite shot by far is a mid-range jumper. She is far from the Cardinals' best three-point shooter, and she doesn’t always try to get to the basket either. I expect Gabbie Marshall will guard Van Lith most of the night. If she can force Van Lith into a tough shooting night, Iowa has a great chance to win.

5’5" Guard Chrislyn Carr -- 11.0 ppg, 39.9% 2FG, 42.3% 3FG.

Carr—from Davenport, Iowa—is a rare player that shoots better from 3 than she does from 2. Given how well Colorado’s three-point specialist—Frida Formann—shot against Iowa in the Sweet 16, Iowa will need to pay close attention to Carr so that she doesn’t have a similar impact.

6’3" Center Olivia Cochran -- 8.1 ppg, 6.3 rpg, 50.2% 2FG.

Cochran is the team’s best post. She shoots decently well from 2, but is far from the most talented post that Iowa has played all season. She also averages nearly 3 fouls per a game on an average of 24 minutes per game, so foul trouble could be an issue for her.

5’7" Guard Mykasa Robinson -- 6.3 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 4.2 apg, 1.9 spg, 46.7% 2FG.

Robinson is the team’s best perimeter defender. She will likely guard Caitlin Clark for a good portion of the game. She also leads the team in assists per game and is second on the team in rebounds per game.

Like Georgia and Colorado, Louisville is a very good defensive team. Herhoopstats.com ranks Louisville’s defense 19th best nationally. Unlike Georgia and Colorado, the Cardinals don’t excel at forcing turnovers. Their 10.1% steal rate ranks just 101st nationally. Like Colorado, the Cardinals also don’t have a great rim protector, and their block rate ranks only 86th nationally.

One area of Louisville’s defense to watch is fouls. The Cardinals’ 21.4% foul rate ranks in the bottom half nationally. Like Colorado and Georgia, the Cardinals will likely be very physical with Iowa. The question will be whether the referees are quick to call fouls and whether Iowa can take advantage at the line if they do.

Unlike Georgia and Colorado, Louisville’s offense is just as good as its defense. The Cardinals’ offense ranks 26th nationally on Herhoopstats, while Georgia and Colorado ranked in the 50s.

The Cardinals shoot decently well from everywhere, but like Colorado, they don’t shoot a large percentage of their shots from outside. Their 22.7% three-point rate ranks just 312th nationally. Instead, they try to work the ball inside or manufacture mid-range jumpers.

Turnovers could also play an important role in the game. Louisville’s 17.8% turnover rate ranks behind Iowa’s 16.7% rate.

As good as Coach Walz is, and as balanced as Louisville is on both ends, there’s also a reason the Cardinals were a 5-seed heading into this tournament. They can, and have, been beaten frequently throughout the season.

In fact, their NCAA Tournament run almost ended before it began. In the first round, 12 seed Drake gave Louisville everything it could handle. Louisville eventually won that game 83-81, but Louisville shot unusually well in the game and it was still a dogfight (no pun intended) for 40 minutes.

Iowa is very similar to Drake, except that Drake doesn’t have scorers at the level of Clark or Monika Czinano. Anything can happen in a given game, and Drake’s success against Louisville doesn't necessarily mean that Iowa will have similar success. But this is as good of a shot to make the Final Four as Iowa could’ve realistically asked for. Now it’s up to the players and coaches to get there.

Adapt. In Iowa’s game at fellow Elite 8 entrant Maryland, the Terps played a box-and-one defense that resulted in frequent double teams of Monika Czinano and Caitlin Clark. Iowa never adjusted to the defense, got steamrolled by some hot shooting on the other end, and lost big.

In other games this year—NC State and UConn come to mind—teams have sold out to limit Czinano, and Iowa hasn’t adjusted quickly enough to win.

Walz and Louisville will have some game plan to slow Clark, Czinano, and the Hawkeye offense down. The challenge will be how quickly Iowa can identify what Louisville is doing and what adjustments the players and coaches can make to keep the high-powered Hawkeye offense on track and in front.