WHO: Iowa State Cyclones (1-0)

WHEN: 2:30 PM CT (Saturday, September 7, 2024)

WHERE: Kinnick Stadium (Iowa City, IA)

TV: CBS (Brad Nessler, Gary Danielson, Jenny Dell)

RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network (Gary Dolphin, Pat Angerer, Rob Brooks) | Sirius/XM 83

MOBILE: paramountplus.com

ONLINE: paramountplus.com

FOLLOW: @HawkeyeBeacon | @HawkeyeFootball | @CFBONFOX | @IowaonBTN

WEATHER: mostly sunny, highs around 70, minimal wind

LINE: Iowa -2.5 (total of 35.5)

The CyHawk clash is back for its 71st iteration, with both Iowa and Iowa State looking to use a win as a springboard to a big season. Neither team is as highly ranked as they've been in recent seasons (Iowa State isn't ranked at all, though the Cyclones are fourth in the "others receiving votes" category), but both teams appear to have manageable conference schedules this season, which could set them up for exciting Novembers -- if they can avoid any September stumbles.

The recent history of the series has been dominated by Iowa; the Hawkeyes have won eight of the last 10 CyHawk tilts and Kirk Ferentz has a 6-1 record against current ISU head coach Matt Campbell. Campbell does have the most recent win in Kinnick Stadium, though, with his Cyclones emerging on top in a 10-7 defensive slugfest two years ago.

That highlights a somewhat peculiar recent trend in the series: home field hasn't been much of an advantage of late, with the road team winning the last four games in the series (and five of the last six overall). Iowa's win in Iowa City in 2018 was the last time the home team won a game in the series.

Will that matter much on Saturday? Probably not. Iowa's relative lack of success against Iowa State in Iowa City has more to do with a lack of opportunities -- the scheduled 2020 CyHawk game in Iowa City was canceled due to COVID-19, so there's only been one Iowa-Iowa State game at Kinnick Stadium since 2018 -- than evidence of ISU dominance. Only a handful of the Cyclones who beat in 2022 are still a part of this year's team.

Rocco Becht was thrust into the starting QB role for Iowa State last season when incumbent Hunter Dekkers was caught up in the state-wide gambling investigation that resulted in multiple suspensions for the Iowa and Iowa State programs. Becht grew into the role and finished with solid stats: 231-of-367 (62.9%), 3120 yards, 23 TD, 8 INT.

He was particularly strong down the stretch, throwing for 14 touchdowns against just three interceptions in his final eight games, including big numbers in losses against Texas (24-of-32, 323 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT) and Memphis (22-of-38, 446 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT). Having played games at Oklahoma, BYU, and Kansas State (among other B12 road venues), he's unlikely to be too phased by the road game environment, either.

Becht got his 2024 season started on a solid note as well, going 20-of-26 (76.9%) for 267 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT in Iowa State's 21-3 win over North Dakota. Unlike some past Iowa State quarterbacks, though, Becht isn't much of a threat with his legs -- he had just 63 yards on 62 attempts (including sacks) last year and just eight yards on four attempts against UND. Iowa should have opportunities to pressure him in the pocket on Saturday; making the most of those opportunities could be pivotal to reducing his accuracy.

Becht's top target on Saturday (and in 2023) was senior WR Jaylin Noel (5'11", 200), who had eight receptions for 135 yards and a touchdown against UND. In 2023, he led Iowa State in receptions (66) and touchdowns (7), though he finished behind Jayden Higgins in receiving yards (820 to 983).

Higgins (6'4", 210) is Becht's other primary target; he had five catches for 74 yards and a score against the Fighting Hawks last week. He was ISU's most explosive threat in the passing game last year, too, leading the team in receiving yards (983) and posting an eye-catching 18.55 yards per catch average. He's a player that should be familiar to Iowa fans as well; he had eight grabs for 95 yards and a touchdown in last year's Iowa-Iowa State game.

JR WR Eli Green (5'11", 195) was the only other ISU player to log more than one reception against UND; he finished with four catches for 44 yards. No tight end logged a catch for ISU against North Dakota, but Benjamin Brahmer (6'7", 250) is a capable option there; he had 28 catches for 352 yards and a pair of scores last season.

Sophomore RB Abu Sama III (5'11", 210) turned heads as a freshman last season en route to finishing with 614 yards and six touchdowns on 84 carries (7.3 yards per attempt). Neither Sama nor any other ISU running back could gain traction against North Dakota, though; Sama finished with 36 yards on five carries, while sophomore Carson Hansen (6'2", 220) had six carries for 20 yards. As a team, Iowa State ran for 86 yards and a score on 22 attempts, a 3.9 yards per carry average.

Sama made a splash as a freshman, leading Iowa State in rushing yards (614), yards per carry (7.3), and touchdowns (6) in 2023, despite finishing third on the team in carries. He was a bit boom-or-bust last year; he had a yards per carry average of 7.0 yards or better in five games (highlighted by a 16-carry, 276-yard, 3-TD explosion against Kansas State), but he also finished with a yards per carry average of 3.0 yards or less in five games, including an 8-carry, 24-yard outing against Iowa last year.

The Cyclones also have a decent amount of experience up front, with four of five starting offensive linemen entering 2024 with at least five career starts and three of those four having started 14 games or more. Center Jarrod Hufford leads the way with 34 career starts, followed by tackles James Neal and Tyler Miller, who each have 14 career starts.

The Cyclone defensive front seven got pounded by North Dakota last week, allowing 174 yards on 42 carries (4.1 yards per carry) to the Fighting Hawks. UND's rushing attack was primarily volume-based, but they did sprinkle in some bigger runs as well, finishing with six runs of 10+ yards in the game.

Winning the ground game has been a key factor in deciding the CyHawk outcome in recent years; the team that runs for more yards is 8-2 in the last 10 CyHawk games and 6-1 in the seven Iowa-Iowa State between Kirk Ferentz and Matt Campbell. The only outliers are 2021 (Iowa State ran for 87 yards to Iowa's 67) and 2014 (Iowa ran for 129 yards to Iowa State's 82), with turnovers playing a key role in both games.

Even in wins, Iowa has struggled to run the ball against Iowa State -- the Hawkeyes haven't topped 112 yards on the ground against Iowa State since running for 164 yards in 2017. The Hawkeye running game is coming off one of its best performances in recent years against Illinois State on Saturday; the 241 yards gained is the most Iowa has had on the ground since racking up 254 against Western Michigan last year and the 6.0 yards per carry average is Iowa's best since running for 6.7 yards per carry against Minnesota in 2020. If Iowa can carry over some of the rushing game success from the second half against Illinois State, the Hawkeyes could be well-positioned to get the win on Saturday.

Most of Iowa State's returning experience on defense lies in the secondary, where the Cyclones have four players who have made at least 12 previous starts, led by Myles Purchase and Beau Freyler with 26 starts apiece. Freyler, one of three safeties that start in the Cyclones' 3-3-5 defense, led Iowa State in tackles last season (107) to go along with six pass break-ups and three interceptions. Purchase was third on the team in tackles (56), but led the team in pass break-up (15), despite not having any interceptions.

Safety Jeremiah Cooper was one of Iowa State's best defenders in coverage, finishing with 10 pass break-up and a team-high five interceptions. Malik Verdon had 47 tackles, four pass break-ups, and two interceptions to round out Iowa State's trio of starting safeties. All told, the ISU secondary should pose a much stiffer test for Cade McNamara and Iowa's young receivers than Illinois State did last week.

The Cyclones have less experience up front, especially after losing starting middle linebacker Caleb Bacon to a leg injury that will keep him out of action indefinitely. Bacon finished second on the team in tackles last season (60), and was also one of Iowa State's more capable pass-rushers, finishing with eight quarterback hurries and 3.0 sacks last year.

Iowa State is also likely to be without another experienced LB in SAM Will McLaughlin, who had 46 tackles, 7.0 tackles for loss, and two interceptions last season. Sophomore LB Jack Sadowsky V (13 career starts) is likely to be Bacon's replacement on Saturday.

Up front, Iowa State's most experienced returning defensive linemen are junior tackle J.R. Singleton and senior end Tyler Onyedim. Singleton led Iowa State with 3.5 sacks last year, in addition to eight quarterback hurries. Onyedim generated nine quarterback hurries and 2.0 sacks in 2023.

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Tyler Perkins and Jace Gilbert split punting duties for Iowa State against North Dakota in Week One, with each punting twice for around 38 yards an attempt. Perkins, a junior, attempted every punt for Iowa State last year (61 attempts, 2703 yards, 44.3 yards per punt average) and nearly all the punts in 2022 (50 punts, 2112 yards, 42.2 yards per punt average). A healthy Perkins is probably close to a wash (or a slight advantage to Iowa State) with Iowa's Rhys Dakin in the punting match-up, but if Iowa State's punting performance is a repeat of the UND game, that could be an edge for Iowa.

On paper, Iowa appears to have a clear advantage at place-kicker. Aside from his hiccup at the end of the 2023 season, junior Drew Stevens has been a reliable option at kicker for the Hawkeyes and he started 2024 on a positive note, making both of his field goal attempts against Illinois State. Iowa State has redshirt freshman Kyle Konrady at placekicker; he's yet to attempt a field goal in his collegiate career. A pressure-packed rivalry game in raucous Kinnick Stadium doesn't sound like an ideal environment to attempt a first career field goal.

Jaylin Noel returned one punt for 14 yards against North Dakota last week, after returning 17 punts for 119 yards over the entire 2023 season. He was more effective as a kickoff returner, taking nine returns for 245 yards (27.2 yards per return) last season. Kaden Wetjen provided a spark for Iowa as a punt returner last week, taking punts back for 51 yards.

The two key factors to Saturday's CyHawk showdown? The same factors that have decided almost every CyHawk game for the last 10 years: turnovers and running the ball. Iowa has posted a negative turnover margin just once (2014) against Iowa State in that span and they've had a total of across those 10 games (with three coming in 2022 alone). Iowa has gone 6-0 against Iowa State since 2013 when posting a positive turnover margin and 2-1 in games with a neutral turnover margin.

If the Doughboyz in Iowa's secondary and the rest of the Hawkeye defense can generate some turnovers -- and Cade McNamara successfully avoids costly mistakes like he did against Illinois State -- then Iowa should improve to 2-0 on the season. Likewise, if Kaleb Johnson, Kamari Moulton, and the rest of the Iowa running game can eat up yardage (and clock), then Iowa should be in excellent position to get the win.

The path to an Iowa State victory likely involves a clean performance from Rocco Becht and some big games from Jaylin Noel and Jayden Higgins. They're certainly capable of doing just that, but with Phil Parker's defense making ISU one-dimensional, I think the Hawkeye secondary will keep Becht & Co. in check through the air.

On offense, McNamara throws for two more touchdowns and Kaleb Johnson records Iowa's first 100-yard rushing performance against Iowa State since Akrum Wadley ran for 118 and a touchdown in 2017.

Iowa 24, Iowa State 10