WHO: #21 Tennessee Volunteers (8-4, 4-4 SEC)
WHEN: 12:06 PM CT (Monday, January 1, 2024)
WHERE: Camping World Stadium (Orlando, FL)
TV: ABC (Dave Fleming, Brock Osweiler, Kayla Burton)
RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network (Gary Dolphin, Ed Podolak, Rob Brooks) or ESPN Radio (Chris Carlin, Tom Luginbill) | Sirius/XM 137 or 194 or Sirius app 957
MOBILE: www.espn.com/app
ONLINE: abc.com/watch-live
FOLLOW: @IowaAwesome | @HawkeyeFootball | @ESPNCFB | @IowaonBTN
WEATHER: 60s and sunny
LINE: Tennessee -4.5 (total of 35.5)

It's the last game of the season for Iowa football -- after this, things go dormant again until September (by which time the new, 18-team Big Ten will be a thing, for better or worse).

This game is also an opportunity for this Iowa team to claim a spot in some very rarefied air -- the 11-win club. Only three Iowa teams have ever won 11 or more games in a single season (2002, 2009, and 2015); this team can become the fourth with a win over Tennessee in the Citrus Bowl on Monday.

And, finally, this game is also the final game of Brian Ferentz's tenure with the Iowa football program. As a player and coach, Ferentz has spent 16 seasons at Iowa, most recently (and most controversially) as the team's offensive coordinator. The under-performance of the offense under Brian's watch led to the insertion of some unusual conditions into his contract before the season began and the continued under-performance of that unit during the 2023 season eventually led to the decision at the end of October to remove him from the OC role at the end of the season. And now the end of the season is here.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

We probably can't just leave it at that, can we? The temptation is there, though, because the Tennessee offense that takes the field on Monday isn't going to look much like the one that played during the regular season, at least in the backfield. Starting QB Joe Milton and top two RBs Jaylen Wright and Jabari Small have all opted out of the Citrus Bowl to prepare for the 2024 NFL Draft.

Milton went 229-for-354 (64.7% completion) for 2813 yards and 20 touchdowns (against five interceptions) in 2023. Wright finished 5th in the SEC with 1,013 yards and four touchdowns on 137 carries (a dazzling 7.39 yards per carry average), while Small had 475 yards and two scores on 95 carries (5.0 ypc). Milton also had 399 yards and tied for the team-high in rushing touchdowns (7) on the ground. They leave big holes to fill in the Volunteer offense.

That said, Tennessee does have some talent in line to step in to those roles. At QB, five-star recruit (and the #2-ranked prospect in the 2023 recruiting class) Nico Iamaleava is set to get the start. He posted pedestrian numbers in very limited action during the regular season -- 16-of-26 (61.5%) for 163 yards and a touchdown -- but that isn't very indicative of his talent level. He was a 5-star recruit for a reason -- which Eliot explored more here ($) -- and he's reportedly been receiving all the first-team snaps during bowl practice.

At running back, Tennessee has a pair of talented underclassmen ready to step up. Sophomore Dylan Sampson, a three-star recruit, was productive in 2023, with 471 yards and seven touchdowns on 86 carries (5.48 ypc). Freshman Cam Seldon, a four-star recruit, had 51 yards on 12 carries (4.25 ypc) in more limited action.

Most of Tennessee's main weapons at wide receiver should also be available in the game, including speed merchant Squirrel White, who led the Vols in receptions (64) and receiving yards (764). Surprisingly, he had just two receiving touchdowns during the season. While he averaged only 11.94 yards per reception during the year, White has game-breaking, take-the-top-off-the-defense speed, so he'll need to be carefully defended by Iowa in order to prevent big plays.

Senior Ramel Keyton was Tennessee's other main weapon at receiver; he finished the regular season with 591 yards and a team-high six touchdowns on 32 receptions. The Vols don't throw to tight ends a lot -- except around the end zone. Senior tight ends McCallan Castles (21 receptions, 265 yards) and Jacob Warren (15 receptions, 182 yards) each had four touchdown grabs this season. Iowa will need to be aware of where they are when the Vols get into the red zone.

Finally, Tennessee is expected to have its regular contingent of starting offensive linemen available for the Citrus Bowl as well. The Tennessee OL played well this year, as their efforts up front helped the Vols post the second-best rushing attack in the SEC (202.6 yards per game, 5.59 yards per carry). The Vols also allowed the second-fewest amount of sacks in the SEC this season (18.0).

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Our colleagues at VolReport said that the defensive secondary is the position unit on the team that's been hit hardest by the wave of departures after the regular season, and it's easy to see why. The Vols are going to be down two starting defensive backs in STAR Tamarion McDonald and CB Doneiko Slaughter. McDonald had 40 tackles, 3.5 tackles for loss, four pass break-ups, and an interception in 2023, while Slaughter had 32 tackles. Tennessee is expected to start freshman Rickey Gibson III in place of Slaughter.

On the other hand, the Vols do have star safety Jaylen McCollough available for the game. He had 54 tackles, 2.5 tackles for loss, four pass break-ups, and a team-high three interceptions during the regular season. And if there's a team you want to face with a depleted secondary, isn't it Iowa?

Iowa's passing offense ranked 130th in the nation (123.2 ypg), ahead of only service academies (and triple-option teams) Navy, Army, and Air Force. Iowa QB Deacon Hill has gone 115-for-233 (49.4%) for 1,096 yards and five touchdowns (against six interceptions) so far this season.

And yet this game may come down to how well Hill and Iowa can exploit the inexperience in the Tennessee secondary. Iowa will want to run the ball effectively against Tennessee, but that may be a tall task. Tennessee ranked 4th in the SEC in rushing defense, allowing 113.8 yards per game. But they also allowed just 3.20 yards per carry, best in the league. They'll be a very stingy test for Iowa's ground game.

100 rushing yards might be the magic number for Iowa in this game -- Tennessee went 7-0 this season when allowing fewer than 100 yards on the ground, but just 1-4 when opponents ran for over 100 yards against them. Missouri (255 yards, 2 TD, 5.0 ypc) gashed them, while Florida (183 yards, 3 TD, 4.26 ypc) and Georgia (156 yards, 1 TD, 3.9 ypc) also had success running the ball against Tennessee.

Tennessee also ranked 16th this season in sacks (36.0) and forced 15 turnovers (10 interceptions, five fumble recoveries). The Vols finished the regular season with a +3 turnover margin. Tennessee defensive coordinator Tim Banks doesn't lack familiarity with Iowa, either -- he was at Penn State and Illinois before taking over the defense in Tennessee and coached against Iowa multiple times at those previous programs.

This game is also the last rodeo for Tory Taylor at Iowa. Iowa's unanimous All-American Ray Guy Award-winning cult hero punter will be plying his trade in the NFL next season. I'm sure Taylor would be perfectly content if his only involvement in Monday's game was as a holder on extra points and field goal attempts. But that doesn't seem like a very likely scenario, given the limitations of Iowa's offense. Odds are he'll have at least a few opportunities to boom a few punts down the field, just like he's done for the past four seasons.

The Vols do have a weapon in the punt return game in Dee Williams, who had 18 returns for 264 yards (14.7 yards per return) and a touchdown during the season. His touchdown return against Texas A&M was pivotal in allowing Tennessee to win a low-scoring, defensive struggle, which could also be a description of Monday's game, as Noah at VolReport pointed out.

Tennessee's own punter, freshman Jackson Ross (an Aussie), had 48 punts for 2,053 yards, a 42.8 yards per punt average. Tennessee kicker Charles Campbell finished 18-of-23 on field goals, with all five of his misses coming from distance -- he was 0-of-3 on kicks of 50+ yards and 3-of-5 on kicks of 40+ yards during the season.

This feels like a game where Iowa may need a big special teams play in order to win. 19 years ago, in Iowa's lone Citrus Bowl win in 2005, Sean Considine returned a blocked LSU punt for a short-field touchdown, which proved key in a close game that Iowa won 30-25. It may take something like that -- a blocked kick returned for a score or a short field, or a big return by Kaden Wetjen -- to get Iowa a win on Monday.

Iowa has gone 10-9 in bowl games under Kirk Ferentz, who is actually tied with Joe Paterno for most bowl wins in Big Ten history entering Monday's game. The Hawkeyes went 6-3 in their first nine bowl games under Ferentz, before losing five in a row between 2011 and 2017. Since then, though, they've won five of their last six bowl games, with the only defeat being a narrow 20-17 loss to Kentucky in the 2022 Citrus Bowl.

Ferentz and the Iowa staff have historically done a very good job of game prep for bowl games, especially in recent seasons. The injuries and absences that Iowa will be dealing with in this game -- Cade McNamara, Erick All, Luke Lachey, Cooper DeJean -- are absences that Iowa has been dealing with for several weeks now.

This is also the second-straight year when Iowa has faced an opponent with a largely brand-new QB in a bowl game after the starter opted out; the Hawkeyes were able to make life miserable for Kentucky's replacement QBs last season and will look to do the same against the very highly-touted Iamaleava this season. Iamaleava has a lot of talent, but he's also being thrown into the deep end against one of the best defenses in college football, which ought to present a huge challenge for him.

This game, like most this year, looks like a challenge for Iowa on offense. The Hawkeyes want to run the ball, but the Vols specialize in shutting down the run. If Tennessee wins that battle, it could become very difficult to find a path to victory for Iowa. The Vol secondary is very depleted, but Iowa's passing game doesn't seem well-suited to exploit that advantage here.

If Iowa can't run the ball, getting big plays (either scoring plays or plays that set up easy scoring opportunities) will be a must for the Hawkeyes to have a chance to win this game. This defense and special teams unit is very capable of doing just that, as they've shown on multiple occasions this season.

The match-ups look difficult for Iowa in several ways. But match-ups often go only so far in determining bowl outcomes. Bowls are often decided more by which team is more excited about being there and wants the game more. Given the multitude of transfer portal departures and NFL Draft opt-outs the Vols have experienced -- as well as the mild disappointment of their overall season -- it's fair to wonder how invested they are in this game. Iowa seems locked in for this game -- and that just might be enough to make the difference here in yet another close, low-scoring defensive slugfest.

IOWA 20, TENNESSEE 17