WHO: Michigan State Spartans (3-3, 1-2 Big Ten)

WHEN: 6:34 PM CT (Saturday, October 19, 2024)

WHERE: Spartan Stadium (East Lansing, MI)

TV: NBC (Noah Eagle, Todd Blackledge, Kathryn Tappen)

RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network (Gary Dolphin, Pat Angerer, Rob Brooks) | Sirius/XM 372

MOBILE: peacocktv.com

ONLINE: peacocktv.com

FOLLOW: @HawkeyeBeacon | @HawkeyeFootball | @NBCSports | @IowaonBTN

WEATHER: clear skies, minimal wind, temps in the 60s

LINE: Iowa -5 (total of 39.5)

Iowa and Michigan State are set to square off for the 50th meeting all-time on Saturday night, with the Hawkeyes coming off their best performance of the season, a 40-16 win over Washington, and the Spartans coming off a bye. Prior to that off week, the Spartans had lost three games in a row, starting with a road loss to Boston College and then back-to-back lopsided defeats to top-10 squads in Ohio State and Oregon.

The Spartans have a new coach (Jonathan Smith), a new star quarterback (Aidan Chiles), and a new-look roster. Few teams were as impacted by the transfer portal as much as Michigan State was; the Spartans had 38 players depart through the portal and added 24 players to their roster from the portal. Smith came to East Lansing after engineering a turnaround at Oregon State; Smith went 34-35 overall in Corvallis, going 25-13 in his final three seasons there after going 9-22 in his first three years.

Iowa has a two-game winning streak against the Spartans, including a 26-16 win over Sparty in a night game last fall. (More on that game below.) Michigan State won four of five over Iowa prior to 2020, though, and Iowa hasn't won in East Lansing since a 19-16 double overtime win in 2012.

The Spartan offense has been sluggish so far in 2024. MSU is 13th in the Big Ten in total offense (357.5 ypg) and yards per play (5.78 ypp) and 17th in the league in scoring offense (19.8 ppg). Michigan State has cracked 20 points just twice this season and only once against an FBS opponent (a 27-24 win over Maryland). In their three losses, the Spartans have been held to 12 points per game.

MSU hasn't been great throwing the ball the ball or running the ball, but of the two the Spartans have been more effective through the air. They rank 10th in the Big Ten in passing yards per game (229.7 ypg) and 16th in completion percentage (59%) and touchdown passes (5). Their eight interceptions are second-most in the Big Ten.

Most of that passing has come from the arm of Oregon State transfer Aidan Chiles. Chiles has gone 86-of-152 (56.6%) for 1,212 yards (8.0 ypa), five touchdowns, and eight interceptions in six games this year. He's also a threat with this legs and he's added 115 yards and three touchdowns on 45 attempts. In MSU's current three-game losing streak, Chiles has thrown one touchdown and four interceptions (though only one total against Ohio State and Oregon).

Backup QB Tommy Schuster has been more effective in very limited usage this year, going 16-of-21 (76%) for 166 yards in three games. Schuster saw some action against both Ohio State and Oregon (going 8-of-11 for 69 yards), so if Chiles has further struggles against the Iowa defense, Sparty could make a quarterback change.

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Chiles' top targets have been freshman Nick Marsh (6'3")and senior Montorie Foster Jr. (6'0"); Marsh leads the team with 320 yards on 16 receptions (though most of that production came in one game against Maryland - eight receptions for 194 yards), while Foster has 274 yards on a team-high 274 yards. Tight end Jack Velling (6'5") is third on the team in receptions (19) and receiving yards (238), while sophomore receiver Jaron Glover (6'1") leads the team with two touchdowns.

On the ground, Michigan State has gone with a one-two punch at running. Senior Kay'ron Lynch-Adams (a UMass transfer) leads the team in carries (67) and yards (338) and has a pair of rushing touchdowns. Junior Nate Carter has been the other part of that running back tandem, with 58 carries for 245 yards and a score.

Michigan State has also allowed 15 sacks this season, which ranks 13th in the Big Ten. There should be some weaknesses upfront that the Iowa pass rush may be able to exploit.

Michigan State has also been very middle-of-the-road on defense this season. The Spartans rank 10th in total defense, allowing 329.8 ypg, and 10th in yards per play (5.1). MSU is 14th in scoring defense, allowing 21.0 ppg; that number jumps up to 30.7 ppg in their three losses.

The Spartans are 12th in rushing defense, allowing 122.7 ypg, and 10th in yards per carry allowed, 3.6. Michigan State is also 12th in passing defense, allowing 199 ypg and 14th in completion percentage allowed (62.7%). One bright spot for the MSU pass defense: it's forced seven interceptions, tied for third-most in the conference.

Linebacker Jordan Turner (a Wisconsin transfer) leads the team in tackles with 37, followed by defensive back Malik Spencer with 29 tackles and linebacker Cal Haladay with 28 tackles. Turner also leads the team in tackles for loss (6.5) and is tied for the lead in sacks (3.0); defensive lineman Khris Bogle has 5.0 tackles for loss and 3.0 sacks.

Defensive back Charles Brantley leads the team in interceptions with three; he also has a 100-yard (!) pick-six among those three picks. He also leads the team with five passes broken up, followed by Spencer with two. Brantley is one defensive back that Cade McNamara will definitely want to keep an eye on throughout the game.

Special teams played a key role in this meeting last year; you may remember a certain very consequential punt return by Cooper DeJean. DeJean's 70-yard punt return score broke a 16-16 tie with 3:45 to play.

Foster MSU with four punt returns for 38 yards (9.5 yards per return), while three different Spartans have combined to return six kick returns for 88 yards (14.7 yards per return).

Michigan State has been more successful at the kicking side of the special teams equation; punter Ryan Eckley has been unleashing booming kicks this year; he ranks second in the league with 48 yards per kick on his 23 punts. Just two of those 23 punts have gone for touchbacks, although only three have been downed inside the 20-yard line. Seven of Eckley's punts have been returned for 46 yards.

Placekicker Jonathan Kim has gone a perfect 9-for-9 on field goal attempts this year, including a 37-yard game-winner as time expired against Maryland. Kim has also handled kickoff duties, with 17 of 25 kickoffs going for touchbacks and two going out of bounds.

Iowa and Michigan State enter this game on different trajectories. Iowa had its best performance of the season a week ago and still has aspirations of winning 10 games. Michigan State had three straight defeats before getting a bye last week. With games remaining against Michigan and Indiana as well as a road trip to Illinois, MSU can ill afford a fourth straight loss on Saturday night if they want to maintain hopes of a bowl trip.

On paper, this game seems to set up well for Iowa. The Spartan defense has been lackluster this year, especially against the run; Kaleb Johnson and the Big Ten's best rushing attack should be excited about that matchup. On the other side of the ball, the MSU offense has also been middling this year and the Spartans' weaknesses in pass protection could lead to another strong outing for the Iowa defensive line.

Michigan State's best chance to win the game seems to be embracing a high-risk/high-reward gameplan; Chiles has had some success hitting chunk plays in the passing game -- eight 30+ yard passes (7th in the Big Ten and four 40+ yard passes (6th). Iowa has been more vulnerable to big pass plays than usual this season (six 30+ yard passes, 10th in the Big Ten).

The MSU secondary has also been opportunistic this year (seven interceptions) and will need to make hay in the turnover department. Cade McNamara has had some rockier performances on the road this year, so avoiding giveaways should be a priority on Saturday night.

But ultimately this feels like another big game for Kaleb Johnson (150+ yards and two touchdowns) and the Iowa defense (2+ turnovers and a defensive score) and Iowa picks up a comfortable victory.

Iowa 31, Michigan State 13