WHO: Minnesota Golden Gophers (2-1, 0-0 Big Ten)

WHEN: 6:35 PM CT (Saturday, September 21, 2024)

WHERE: Huntington Bank Stadium (Minneapolis, MN)

TV: NBC (Noah Eagle, Todd Blackledge, Kathryn Tappen)

RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network (Gary Dolphin, Pat Angerer, Rob Brooks) | Sirius/XM 382/972

MOBILE: peacocktv.com

ONLINE: peacocktv.com

FOLLOW: @HawkeyeBeacon | @HawkeyeFootball | @NBCSports | @IowaonBTN

WEATHER: temps in the upper 70s, minimal wind

LINE: Iowa -2.5 (total of 35.5)

Goodbye, non-conference play. Hello, Big Ten season.

Iowa navigated the first quarter of its schedule with a 2-1 schedule, with wins over the non-Power 4 opponents on the slate (Illinois State,Troy) and a loss against the only Power 4 team (Iowa State). In many ways, that 2-1 record is a pretty fair representation of the inconsistency of Iowa's play -- the Hawkeyes have played roughly three really strong halves out of six so far.

Minnesota's season has mirrored Iowa's season -- the Gophers are also 2-1, with wins over two non-Power 4 opponents (Nevada and Rhode Island) and a loss against a Power 4 squad (North Carolina). Minnesota even lost that game on a late field goal, just like Iowa. The Gophers also have a similar overall profile to Iowa: defense-first with an offense that struggles at times to sustain drives and score points.

Speaking of that Minnesota offense, the Gophers rank 66th in scoring offense (30.7 ppg), 97th in total offense (350.7 yards per game), and 81st in SP+ offense. Minnesota rolled up yards and points on Rhode Island and Nevada, but had just 244 yards (4.4 yards per play) and 17 points against North Carolina in the season opener.

The Gophers rank 76th in passing offense this season, with 220.7 yards per game on 68% completion percentage and four touchdowns against one interception. Senior Max Brosmer has handled most of the passing duties this year, going 53-of-77 (68.8%) for 527 yards (8.1 ypa) and three touchdowns with one interception. While Brosmer is new to the Big Ten (and the FBS), he's not new to college football -- he threw for 8,713 passing yards and 70 touchdowns over five seasons at New Hampshire.

Senior wide receivers Daniel Jackson and Elijah Spencer are leading the Gophers in receiving through three games, though neither player has caught a touchdown pass yet. Jackson, who led Minnesota in receptions (59), receiving yards (831), and touchdowns (8) last year, has 12 receptions for 156 yards this year. Spencer has hauled in 10 passes for 134 yards, while running back Darius Taylor has been the third-most frequent target, with nine receptions for 85 yards and a touchdown.

Taylor is also leading Minnesota in rushing, with 188 yards on 25 carries (7.5 yards per carry) and a team-high three touchdowns. Taylor ran up 799 yards in effectively five games of work last season, running for 190+ yards three times, including a 208-yard effort against Bowling Green in the Quick Lane Bowl. He faced Iowa last year and finished with 59 yards on 16 carries (3.7 yards per carry). Oklahoma transfer Marcus Major has been the other main rusher for Minnesota, with 129 yards and two scores on 35 carries (3.7 yards per carry).

Minnesota's offense hasn't been particularly explosive this year, which could be good news for an Iowa defense that's shown a vulnerability to big plays in recent weeks. The Gophers have just three 30+ yard plays this season, which ranks 114th nationally. By comparison, Iowa has nine such plays. Nor has Minnesota been very efficient in the red zone -- the Gophers have scored on just 10 of 15 trips inside the 20-yard line, a 67% conversion rate that ranks 120th nationally.

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The Gopher defense is coming off back-to-back shutouts (against Rhode Island and Nevada) for the first time over 60 years -- since October 1962. Those shutouts have boosted their scoring defense to fifth in the nation at 6.3 points per game. Minnesota also ranks fifth in total defense at 186.3 yards per game, as well as 12th in defense in the SP+ rankings.

While the defense smothered Rhode Island and Nevada, it also had a good showing in the loss against North Carolina -- the Tar Heels managed just 252 yards (147 rushing, 105 passing) on 3.9 yards per play. The Gophers obviously haven't faced the most potent offenses yet, but the early returns on the defense this season have been extremely positive.

Minnesota ranks 20th in rush defense, allowing 74.3 yards per game on 2.6 yards per carry. The pass defense has been stingy as well, conceding just 112 yards per game (8th nationally). Opposing quarterbacks have completed just 56% of their passes and remarkably have yet to throw a touchdown -- against seven interceptions. Minnesota posted consecutive three-interception efforts against Rhode Island and Nevada.

That elite ball-hawking has led to a +7 turnover margin for Minnesota, tied for fifth-best in the nation. The Gophers also rank 37th nationally in red zone defense, allowing scores of 75% of opponent trips, but mostly they've succeeded by not allowing opponents to venture into the red zone -- through three games, Minnesota has had to defend just four red zone trips total.

Linebackers Maverick Baranowski and Cody Lindenberg lead the team in tackles, with 17 and 16 respectively. Defensive back Jack Henderson leads the defense in tackles for loss (2.5) and sacks (1.5). Defensive linemen Jah Joyner (4) and Anthony Smith (3) lead the team in QB hurries, while DL Danny Striggow has contributed 1.5 sacks as well. The seven interceptions by the Gopher defense have come from six different players, with only freshman Kerry Brown grabbing more than one interception so far (2).

Special teams decided the game a year ago and could be the critical factor in this year's game as well. Senior placekicker Dragan Kasich made 23 field goals on 27 attempts last year en route to earning Big Ten Kicker of the Year honors. Kasich has been off that pace so far in 2024; he's missed at least one field goal attempt in each game of the season and is only 5-of-9 for the season. Kasich made four of five kicks last year and scored all of Minnesota's points in the 12-10 victory.

Senior punter Mark Crawford has been sharp, bombing nine kicks for 402 yards, a 44.7 yards per punt average. Opponents have returned just two punts (for 19 yards) in three games so far this season.

Returner Quentin Redding has been effective as a punt returner, with six returns for 81 yards (13.5 yards per return) in three games. He's been a very active kickoff returner, albeit with much less success -- 15 returns for 236 yards, a 15.7 yards per return average.

In a game where defenses could dominate and offensive drives (and points) could be at a premium, a special teams play like a big return could be the difference in the game. Obviously both teams (and both fanbases) remember a certain disallowed punt return from last year's game.

This has been a series marked by close games in recent years; outside of a 35-7 blowout for Iowa in the 2020 pandemic season, four of the last five games in the battle for Floyd of Rosedale have been decided by five points or fewer. Minnesota won 12-10 last year, while Iowa won 13-10, 27-22, and 23-19 in 2022, 2021, and 2019, respectively.

Given how evenly-matched Iowa and Minnesota appear again this year, another close game seems like the most likely outcome on Saturday night. Minnesota's defense has been in lockdown mode over the last two weeks, but the Hawkeyes also have stronger weapons on offense than the Rams or Wolfpack. On offense, the Gophers haven't shown the kind of explosive ability that could pose real concern for the Iowa secondary.

On paper (and in many of the statistical categories) there isn't much separating Minnesota and Iowa. But the Hawkeyes should have the best player on offense in NCAA-leading rusher Kaleb Johnson; in a tight game, that could be the difference.

Here's guessing Johnson claws out another 100-yard rushing performance and scores a touchdown, while the defense stops the big play bleeding and forces at least two Gopher turnovers.

Iowa 17, Minnesota 13