PREVIEW: Iowa at No. 3 Ohio State

WHO: #3 Ohio State Buckeyes (4-0, 1-0 Big Ten)

WHEN: 2:30 PM CT (Saturday, October 5, 2024)

WHERE: Ohio Stadium (Columbus, OH)

TV: CBS (Brad Nessler, Gary Danielson, Jenny Dell)

RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network (Gary Dolphin, Pat Angerer, Rob Brooks) | Sirius/XM 392

MOBILE: paramountplus.com

ONLINE: paramountplus.com

FOLLOW: @HawkeyeBeacon | @HawkeyeFootball | @CBSSportsCFB | @IowaonBTN

WEATHER: temps in the lower 79s, mostly sunny, minimal wind

LINE: Ohio State -20.5 (total of 44.5)

Iowa has had two weeks to prepare for #3 Ohio State -- but will it matter? The Buckeyes started the year ranked #2 in the AP Top 25, but their small drop to #3 in those rankings has more to do with notable wins by other teams in the Top 10 than it does any failing on Ohio State's part.

The Buckeyes have outscored their four opponents this season 195-27 and only one opponent (Marshall) has cracked 10 points (14). That margin has been even more lopsided in the second half, where Ohio State has outscored opponents 91-3. The Buckeyes have trailed for a grand total of one minute and forty-two seconds this season.

The Buckeyes are tied for third in the nation in scoring offense -- with Indiana (!), of all teams -- at 48.8 points per game, while also leading the nation in scoring defense at 6.8 points per game. This has been a juggernaut of a team on both sides of the ball.

The Buckeyes lost consensus All-American and Biletnikoff Award winner Marvin Harrison, Jr. (1,200+ yards and 14 touchdowns in 2022 and 2023) to the NFL Draft last spring, but the offense haven't missed a beat without its top playmaker. As noted, Ohio State ranks third in the nation in scoring (48.8 ppg); the Buckeye offense is also fifth nationally in total offense (534.8 ypg) and third nationally in yards per play (7.98).

While Ohio State lost Harrison to the draft and former starting quarterback Kyle McCord to the transfer portal, the Buckeyes added the top receiver recruit in college football in Jeremiah Smith. They also brought in former Kansas State starting quarterback Will Howard to run the offense.

The early returns on Smith have been phenomenal: 19 receptions, 364 yards (a dazzling 19.2 yards per reception), and five touchdowns. Howard hasn't put up blowaway numbers -- 72-of-105 (68.6%), 1039 yards (9.9 yards per attempt), eight touchdowns, two interceptions -- but he hasn't needed to, either. With the offensive weapons that Ohio State has at its disposal, Howard's main job is to feed his playmakers and avoid costly turnovers. So far, so good on that front.

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In addition to getting Smith and Howard, Ohio State's biggest offensive personnel wins of the offseason may have been getting seniors TreVeyon Henderson and Emeka Egbuka to return for one more season. Egbuka has formed a dynamite receiver tandem with Smith, hauling in a team-high 21 receptions for 362 yards and two touchdowns. The third man in OSU's passing attack has been Carnell Tate, who has grabbed 14 receptions for 219 yards and a touchdown.

Meanwhile, Henderson has combined with Oklahoma transfer Quinshon Judkins to give OSU a relentless 1-2 punch at running back. Judkins leads the team in carries (47), yards (390), and touchdowns (5), but Henderson isn't far behind, with 31 carries for 276 yards and four touchdowns. Both Henderson and Judkins are averaging over eight yards per carry; they each have home run potential with every carry.

In addition to paving the way for that dynamic rushing attack (which ranks 14th nationally with 227 yards per game), the Ohio State offensive line has also been very effective at keeping pressure away from Howard. The Buckeyes have only allowed three sacks this season, which puts them in a tie for ninth nationally. There aren't any obvious weak links on the Ohio State offense.

...but there also aren't any obvious weak links on the Ohio State defense. In addition to leading the nation in scoring defense (6.8 ppg), the Buckeyes are second nationally in total defense (196.5 yards per game) and yards per play (3.39). By comparison, Iowa's defense ranks 18th nationally in total defense (272.8 yards per game) and 29th nationally in yards per play allowed (4.72).

Most concerning for Iowa's offense might be the strength of the Ohio State run defense. Ohio State ranks third nationally in both overall run defense, allowing just 61.8 yards per game, and yards per carry, allowing 1.8 yards per carry. Only one opponent has topped 47 rushing yards against Ohio State -- Marshall, with 125 yards. The Thundering Herd are also the only team to score a rushing touchdown against Ohio State.

The Ohio State pass defense hasn't been as airtight as as the run defense -- but it hasn't been bad, either. The Buckeyes rank ninth nationally in pass defense, allowing 134.8 yards per game and 13th nationally in yards per attempt allowed (5.5). While Ohio State defenders have only intercepted three passes so far, the Buckeyes have recorded 13 pass break-ups.

Safeties Sonny Styles and Lathan Ransom lead Ohio State in tackles, with 23 and 20 stops, respectively. Ransom is also third on the team with three tackles for loss. Linebacker Mitchell Melton and defensive end J.T. Tuimoloau lead the defense with 3.5 tackles for loss each. They also top the sack chart, with Tuimoloau notching 2.5 sacks so far and Melton adding a pair of sacks. Cornerback Denzel Burke leads the team with two of the Buckeyes' three interceptions, while fellow cornerback Jordan Hancock leads the team in pass break-ups (3).

One other strength of Ohio State's defense? Preventing big plays. No one in the country has been better at stopping explosive plays than the Buckeyes. Ohio State has allowed just 28 plays of 10+ yards this season (tied with Missouri for the top mark in the nation) and only five plays of 20+ yards. They haven't allowed a single play this season of 30 yards or longer. This defense has been absolutely blanketing its opponents through the first third of the season.

If there is a weakness on Ohio State, it may be the specialists. Punter Joe McGuire has kicked the ball 11 times for 463 yards, a 42.1 yard average per kick. Of course, he's also only needed to punt 11 times in four games (Rhys Dakin has punted 23 times in four games for Iowa this season).

Kicker Jayden Fielding has made both of his field goal attempts this season, as well as all 24 extra point attempts. He's recorded touchbacks on 21 of 30 kickoff attempts, although three kickoffs have also gone out of bounds this year.

The return game has been a non-factor in Ohio State games this season; only three opponents have returned kickoffs against OSU (for a 16.7 yards per return average) and just one punt return has been attempted by an OSU opponent (it went for -5 yards).

The Buckeyes haven't done much in the return game themselves, with Brandon Inniss returning 11 punts for 106 yards (9.6 yards per return) and Jayden Ballard returning two kickoffs for 23 yards (11.5 yards per return).

Games against elite opponents haven't gone well for Iowa in recent seasons, especially on the offensive side of the ball. Iowa was infamously shut out by both Penn State and Michigan last season (as well as Tennessee in the Citrus Bowl). In 2022, Iowa managed 14 points against Michigan (almost entirely in garbage time) and 10 points against Ohio State (though seven of those 10 points came via a fumble return for a score). In 2021, Iowa scored just three points against Michigan in the Big Ten Championship.

Offensive futility has been recurring theme for Iowa in these games against elite opponents, so changing that script will be critical for the Hawkeyes to have a chance at a different outcome in this game. The good news is that the Iowa offense has shown signs of life this season, especially in the running game (Iowa ranks 10th nationally in rushing). The bad news is that the strength of Iowa's offense will be facing the greatest strength of Ohio State's defense; Kaleb Johsnon & Co. will need to try and gain traction against one of the nation's fiercest run-stuffing units.

The overall blueprint for an Iowa win in this game should sound familiar: run the ball, control time of possession, win the turnover battle, make plays on special teams. Controlling time of possession would bring a pair of benefits: keeping Ohio State's explosive offense off the field and preventing Iowa's defense from getting worn down.

Turnovers were a huge issue for Iowa in all four losses last year; 13 of Iowa's 22 total giveaways came in those four defeats, with 10 of those takeaways coming against Penn State, Michigan (Big Ten Championship Game), and Tennessee (Citrus Bowl). Turnovers were a contributing factor in Iowa's last game against Ohio State getting well out hand too -- the Hawkeyes coughed the ball up six times in that game, which resulted in 20 Ohio State points.

It's hard to see everything shaking out in Iowa's favor, especially in Columbus, the lone old-school Big Ten venue where Kirk Ferentz has never won (winless in six tries). In fact, Ferentz has recorded more wins -- home and away -- over Rutgers (4) and Maryland (3) than he has against Ohio State (2), even though the Terps and Scarlet Knights have only been in the Big Ten for a decade.

The guess here is that Kaleb Johnson will fail to crack 100 yards for the first time this season as the offense struggles to rack up first downs and scoring opportunities. The defense will keep the game close for a while, before getting worn down in the second half, enabling the Buckeyes to pull away for a comfortable victory.

Ohio State 38, Iowa 13