WHO: UCLA Bruins (3-5, 2-4 Big Ten)

WHEN: 8:05 PM CT (Friday, November 8, 2024)

WHERE: Rose Bowl (Pasadena, CA)

TV: FOX (Connor Onion, Mark Helfrich)

RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network (Gary Dolphin, Pat Angerer, Rob Brooks) | Sirius/XM 372

MOBILE: foxsports.com/mobile

ONLINE: foxsports.com/live

FOLLOW: @HawkeyeBeacon | @HawkeyeFootball | @CFBONFOX | @IowaonBTN

WEATHER: temps in the 60s, clear skies, minimal wind

LINE: Iowa -6.5 (total of 44.5)

Iowa faces the second of the two Big Ten newcomers on the schedule this season, heading out west to take on UCLA on Friday night. It's Iowa's first trip out west since facing USC in the Holiday Bowl in 2019. That game represents one of the few successful trips Iowa has made out west, a 49-24 Hawkeye victory.

Most trips west haven't gone well for the Hawkeyes; since Kirk Ferentz took over in 1999, Iowa has played six games out west and gone 2-4. The 2019 Holiday Bowl and the 2010 Insight Bowl (27-24 over Missouri) represent Iowa's only wins out west; the four losses have included some of the most lopsided defeats of Ferentz's tenure, including a 44-7 loss at Arizona State in 2004, a 31-14 defeat against Oklahoma in the 2011 Insight Bowl, and a 45-16 drubbing by Stanford in the 2016 Rose Bowl. (Iowa also lost 34-27 at Arizona in 2010.)

UCLA has had an up and down season, with more ups than downs recently -- the Bruins are 3-5 overall, but they enter this game on a two-game winning streak, coming off back-to-back road wins at Rutgers and Nebraska. Prior to that, UCLA lost five in a row, though that streak did include four games against teams currently ranked in the Top 15 of the College Football Playoff rankings: #8 Indiana, #15 LSU, #1 Oregon, and #6 Penn State.

Scoring the ball has not been easy for UCLA this season -- the Bruins are averaging just 18.6 ppg, worst in the Big Ten and 126th nationally. UCLA didn't crack 17 points in a game until its seventh game of the season, a 35-point effort against Rutgers. UCLA also topped 17 last week in its 27-20 win over Nebraska.

UCLA ranks 16th in the conference in yards per game (309.1) and 15th in the league in yards per play (5.39), though production has been improved during the recent winning streak: the Bruins are averaging 418 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play in their last two games. Numbers like that would make UCLA a top-half of the Big Ten offense.

The strength of the UCLA offense has unquestionably been the passing game. Starter Ethan Garbers (6'3", 210) has completed 141 of 216 passes (65%) for 1,703 yards and 10 touchdowns against nine interceptions. Garbers threw four touchdowns and nine interceptions in his first six games but has thrown six touchdowns and no interceptions in his last two games. He torched Rutgers (32-of-38, 383 yards, 4 touchdowns) and was effective against Nebraska (17-of-25, 219 yards, 2 touchdowns).

Garbers is also a threat with his legs. While he's credited with 103 yards on the ground this season, that includes lost yardage due to sacks. He ran for 48 yards and a score against Rutgers two weeks ago and 56 yards against Nebraska last week. Iowa will need to account for his mobility and threat to scramble.

Curiously, neither of Garbers' top receiving options this season has been an actual receiver. Running back T.J. Harden (6'2", 220) leads the team in receptions with 27 while tight end Moliki Matavao (6'6", 263) leads the team in receiving yards (303). Among actual receivers, freshman Kwazi Gilmer (6'2", 180), the reigning Big Ten Freshman of the Week after his 3-catch, 88-yard, 1-TD effort against Nebraska, leads the team with 213 yards, followed by senior wideout Logan Loya (5'11", 185), who has 20 receptions for 200 yards and a team-high three touchdowns.

Harden is the Bruins' leading rusher as well, with 73 carries for 226 yards and a touchdown. Senior running backs Jalen Berger (6'1", 215) and Keegan Jones (5'10", 185) have chipped in 148 and 123 yards, respectively, this season. As a team, the Bruins have run the ball for just 591 yards (73.9 yards per game, 2.84 yards per carry) and three touchdowns, all bottom of the Big Ten numbers. UCLA is coming off its best rushing performance of the season, with 139 yards on 30 carries (4.63 ypc) against Nebraska.

Given that ineffective run game, it's perhaps not surprising that UCLA has also struggled to convert third downs; the Bruins have converted just 37 of 97 attempts (38%), fourth-worst in the Big Ten. UCLA has also struggled to protect the passer, allowing 22 sacks in eight games so far.

UCLA has been successful in the red zone -- with some caveats. The Bruins have scored on 90% of their trips inside the 20, tied with Iowa for third-best in the league. But they've only made 20 red zone appearances this season, the fewest in the Big Ten. Also, while they've scored on 18 of those 20 trips, 10 of the scores came via field goals; UCLA has scored just eight touchdowns in the red zone and its TD conversion rate of 40% is the worst in the league.

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On defense, UCLA does one thing very well (defend the run) and one thing very poorly (defend the pass). The Bruins are allowing 27.9 ppg this season, second-worst in the league. They're also conceding 361.6 ypg (13th) and 5.48 yppg (13th).

As noted, the Bruins have been stout against the run -- UCLA has allowed just 100.4 ypg, third-best in the Big Ten, and 3.32 ypc, fourth-best in the Big Ten. Five of eight opponents have run for 100+ yards on UCLA, though none have gone for more than 153 (Oregon). While the Bruins have held up against the run well overall, they have been prone to allowing touchdowns on the ground -- their 13 rushing touchdowns conceded is fifth-worst in the conference.

UCLA's pass defense has been much leakier this season; the Bruins have allowed 261.3 ypg (17th) and a 140.9 QB rating (17th), as well as 7.3 yards per attempt (14th). Opponents have thrown 15 touchdowns against just six interceptions. UCLA has been particularly prone to allowing chunk plays through the air -- the Bruins rank in the bottom-four of the league in pass plays allowed of 10+ yards, 20+ yards, 30+ yards, and 40+ yards.

Junior linebacker Carson Schwesinger leads the Big Ten in tackles per game (10.6), solo tackles (54), and double-digit tackle performances (six). He also leads the Bruins in sacks (3.0) and tackles for loss (7.5). Senior defensive back Bryan Addison leads the team in interceptions with two, while fellow senior defensive backs K.J. Wallace (6) and Kaylin Moore (5) lead the team in pass break-ups.

As a team, UCLA has 14 sacks on the season, which ranks 13th in the league. The Bruins have also forced just seven turnovers (six interceptions and one fumble recovery), the second-lowest total in the Big Ten. UCLA has also struggled to stop opponents on third down or in the red zone this season.

UCLA has allowed opponents to convert 54.6% of third-down opportunities this season, worst in the league, and 90.9% of red zone opportunities this season, also worst in the league. 72.7% of those red zone trips (24 of 33) have resulted in opponent touchdowns.

UCLA has not been very distinguished on special teams this season. Punter Brody Richter is averaging 43.4 yards per kick this season, which ranks 9th in the Big Ten. 12 of his 28 punts have been downed inside the 20; only one has gone for a touchback. Opponents have returned 10 punts for 48 yards.

Placekicker Mateen Bhaghani has been the brightest spot for the Bruins' special teams this year; he's converted 14-of-14 extra points and 12-of-14 field goals (85.7%), including a 33-yard game winner against Hawaii. He gives UCLA an effective option inside field goal range. 17 of his 32 kickoffs (53%) have gone for touchbacks and opponents have returned just seven kicks for 128 yards (18.3 yards per return).

UCLA's own return efforts have been marginal. Logan Loya has been an effective punt returner -- when he actually returns a punt. He's averaging 14.3 yards per punt return, but he's only returned four punts this season. Keegan Jones has returned 10 kickoffs for 187 yards.

How much do the trap game factors matter? Certainly, there are a lot of things working against Iowa in this game -- the game is being played after a shortened week of preparation, after travel across half the country (and two time zones), and at a late hour (kickoff will be at 10 PM Iowa time). Iowa's past experiences with west coast road games has been mostly terrible, although six games games over 20 years is also a pretty small sample size.

Setting aside those external issues, what about the opponent? UCLA has an unimposing record, but that 3-5 mark is at least in part a function of some challenging scheduling -- four games against potential College Football Playoff teams is rough stuff. The Bruins also enter this game playing their best football of the season and with the confidence of a two-game winning streak. Of course, Iowa also enters the game on a two-game winning streak and playing some of its best football of the season; someone's streak has to give.

What about the matchups? When the Hawkeyes have the ball, the game will pit strength (the Big Ten's best rushing attack) against strength (the Big Ten's third-best rushing defense -- and weakness (the Big Ten's worst passing attack) against weakness (the Big Ten's second-worst pass defense).

When the Bruins have the ball, the Iowa defense will face a very one-dimensional foe (solid at passing, dreadful at running) and Phil Parker defenses have had great success in the past against offenses that could only do one thing well. On the other hand, if Garbers can maintain his hot streak as a passer, he could have success against an Iowa secondary that's been burned on multiple occasions this season.

Iowa also hasn't been a particularly great road team this season, outside of the second half against Minnesota. The Hawkeyes were outplayed by Ohio State for four quarters in Columbus and submitted their meekest performance of the year (by far) against Michigan State in their last road trip. Iowa's home/road splits are... significant: 36.5 ppg and 393.7 ypg at home, just 19.3 ppg and 281.0 ypg on the road.

So what's the deciding factor on Friday night? Not what, but who: Kaleb Johnson. UCLA has a very good run defense -- but it hasn't faced an opponent as committed to running the ball as Iowa, nor a running back as good as Johnson. Johnson goes for 150 yards and two touchdowns, while Seth Anderson and Jacob Gill record explosive plays in the passing game, and the Iowa defense is able to pressure Garbers and force a few turnovers.

Iowa 24, UCLA 17